MODEL VERDICT
Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $2.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $6.32 | +119.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $22.65 | +686.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.99 | -65.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $30.77 | +968.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $10.37 | +260.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $28.50 | +889.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $34.94 | +1113.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $34.05 | +1082.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $0.90 | -68.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $26.58 | +822.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.52 | +404.1% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 77× | 84× | 91× (Current) | 98× | 105× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 49.48 | 31.92 | 27.88 | 88.64 | 33.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 79.18 | 27.20 | 15.94 | 246.37 | 111.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.50 | 13.00 | 6.05 | 18.45 | 6.21 |
| P/FCF | 26.18 | 29.03 | 2.56 | 44.09 | 18.48 |
| P/FFO | 9.45 | 8.86 | 3.91 | 15.59 | 5.86 |
| P/AFFO | 148.48 | 53.73 | 10.22 | 381.49 | 202.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.15 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 2.33 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.35 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.90 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WOOF's fair value at $14.52 vs the current price of $2.88, implying +404.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.33 (P10) to $21.28 (P90), with a median of $16.54.
WOOF's current P/E of 90.9x compares to the industry median of 31.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +192.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 49.5x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover WOOF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.59 (range: $2.18 — $4.53), implying +24.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (13), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WOOF trades at the 8950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (49.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WOOF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.