MODEL VERDICT
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $125.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $139.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $152.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $147.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $144.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $97.57 | -22.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $74.61 | -40.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $88.05 | -30.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $31.05 | -75.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $75.62 | -39.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $30.44 | -75.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $88.97 | -29.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $46.31 | -63.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $43.59 | -65.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $83.56 | -33.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $30.57 | -75.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.53 | -29.6% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $115 | $126 | $136 | $147 | $158 |
| Conservative (15%) | $121 | $132 | $143 | $155 | $166 |
| Base Case (22.6%) | $129 | $141 | $153 | $165 | $177 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $137 | $150 | $163 | $176 | $189 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 51.78 | 35.72 | 25.86 | 148.75 | 43.44 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.78 | 36.30 | 25.36 | 115.32 | 31.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.95 | 27.08 | 18.93 | 36.62 | 5.69 |
| P/FCF | 86.12 | 60.68 | 24.60 | 298.56 | 97.12 |
| P/FFO | 27.76 | 29.55 | 19.15 | 38.55 | 7.05 |
| P/TBV | 3.49 | 3.21 | 2.50 | 6.16 | 1.23 |
| P/AFFO | 104.13 | 39.89 | 23.59 | 272.16 | 100.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.48 | 3.20 | 2.50 | 6.16 | 1.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.55 | 17.14 | 15.44 | 22.69 | 2.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates WPM's fair value at $88.53 vs the current price of $125.84, implying -29.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.90 (P10) to $107.74 (P90), with a median of $89.39.
WPM's current P/E of 38.2x compares to the industry median of 26.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +42.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 51.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover WPM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $152.50 (range: $130.00 — $175.00), implying +21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WPM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (51.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 920.0% to approximately $137. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.