MODEL VERDICT
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $66.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $66.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $66.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $66.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $65.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $46.09 | -30.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $37.46 | -43.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $49.45 | -25.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $80.75 | +21.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $46.08 | -30.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $39.52 | -40.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $71.79 | +8.2% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $48.66 | -26.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.66 | -16.2% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $55 | $65 | $74 | $84 | $94 |
| Conservative (19%) | $58 | $69 | $79 | $90 | $100 |
| Base Case (28.9%) | $63 | $75 | $86 | $98 | $109 |
| Bull Case (39%) | $68 | $80 | $93 | $105 | $118 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.60 | 15.01 | 13.42 | 23.62 | 3.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.38 | 11.76 | 10.23 | 15.07 | 1.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.02 | 12.20 | 11.68 | 15.50 | 1.66 |
| P/FCF | 8.14 | 7.94 | 6.60 | 12.34 | 1.95 |
| P/FFO | 15.46 | 14.88 | 13.34 | 18.83 | 1.90 |
| P/TBV | 2.85 | 3.00 | 2.04 | 3.49 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 16.49 | 15.95 | 14.16 | 19.98 | 2.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.54 | 2.59 | 1.98 | 3.00 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.70 | 1.69 | 1.55 | 1.90 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates WRB's fair value at $55.66 vs the current price of $66.38, implying -16.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.90 (P10) to $63.01 (P90), with a median of $57.32.
WRB's current P/E of 14.9x compares to the industry median of 10.4x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +44.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover WRB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $70.30 (range: $64.00 — $80.00), implying +5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (20), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WRB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 190.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.