MODEL VERDICT
WisdomTree, Inc. (WT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $16.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $16.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $17.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $17.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $15.84 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $13.69 | -17.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $4.62 | -72.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $2.86 | -82.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $13.46 | -19.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $10.91 | -34.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.16 | -38.9% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.24 | 17.58 | 10.83 | 31.82 | 7.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.65 | 16.03 | 8.72 | 75.57 | 25.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.97 | 13.55 | 11.62 | 15.85 | 1.47 |
| P/FCF | 13.83 | 13.83 | 11.83 | 17.05 | 2.01 |
| P/FFO | 15.97 | 15.65 | 9.78 | 22.47 | 4.54 |
| P/AFFO | 16.02 | 15.68 | 9.79 | 22.51 | 4.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.99 | 2.99 | 1.89 | 4.27 | 0.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.09 | 2.94 | 2.59 | 3.66 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates WT's fair value at $10.16 vs the current price of $16.62, implying -38.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.32 (P10) to $12.53 (P90), with a median of $10.32.
WT's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +21.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.2x over 5 years. Signal: Premium.
17 analysts cover WT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.70 (range: $15.50 — $20.00), implying +12.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WT trades at the 6600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (10.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6040.0% to approximately $7. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.