MODEL VERDICT
White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd. (WTM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $2163.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $2259.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $2322.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $2291.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $2301.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $4455.28 | +105.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $3770.20 | +74.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $1170.92 | -45.9% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $66.90 | -96.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $4454.22 | +105.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $3568.07 | +64.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $1600.38 | -26.0% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $3942.15 | +82.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3136.62 | +45.0% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $1814 | $1814 | $2267 | $3174 | $4081 |
| Conservative (9%) | $1872 | $1872 | $2340 | $3276 | $4213 |
| Base Case (13.6%) | $1955 | $1955 | $2443 | $3420 | $4398 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $2035 | $2035 | $2544 | $3562 | $4580 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.69 | 6.34 | 4.39 | 21.66 | 6.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.66 | 6.76 | 4.24 | 13.87 | 3.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.46 | 7.75 | 4.48 | 16.87 | 5.00 |
| P/FCF | 15.37 | 10.83 | 8.39 | 31.41 | 10.82 |
| P/FFO | 8.62 | 6.38 | 4.29 | 21.99 | 6.73 |
| P/TBV | 1.05 | 1.08 | 0.81 | 1.41 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.92 | 0.85 | 0.81 | 1.11 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.09 | 3.44 | 1.76 | 5.02 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates WTM's fair value at $3136.62 vs the current price of $2163.50, implying +45.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3136.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2424.98 (P10) to $3505.96 (P90), with a median of $2943.78.
WTM's current P/E of 5.0x compares to the industry median of 10.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -51.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover WTM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WTM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (31.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3340.0% to approximately $2885. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.