MODEL VERDICT
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $256.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $287.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $297.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $292.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $280.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $313.36 | +22.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $296.08 | +15.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $295.96 | +15.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $313.55 | +22.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $312.57 | +21.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $319.70 | +24.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $312.30 | +21.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $310.67 | +21.2% | 100% | 92 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $208 | $242 | $277 | $312 | $346 |
| Conservative (11%) | $216 | $252 | $288 | $324 | $360 |
| Base Case (16.3%) | $227 | $265 | $303 | $340 | $378 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $238 | $278 | $317 | $357 | $397 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.39 | 24.69 | 15.94 | 27.54 | 4.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.02 | 21.56 | 10.90 | 98.07 | 30.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.56 | 18.02 | 11.09 | 33.23 | 7.10 |
| P/FCF | 26.17 | 23.18 | 16.47 | 45.05 | 10.05 |
| P/FFO | 25.10 | 16.08 | 6.29 | 89.25 | 28.53 |
| P/AFFO | 54.63 | 18.13 | 6.56 | 282.75 | 100.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.96 | 2.67 | 2.30 | 4.04 | 0.73 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.15 | 3.18 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates WTW's fair value at $310.67 vs the current price of $256.34, implying +21.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $310.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $274.54 (P10) to $346.29 (P90), with a median of $310.44.
WTW's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 19.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -18.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.4x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
29 analysts cover WTW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $338.42 (range: $275.00 — $409.00), implying +32.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WTW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 500.0% to approximately $269. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.