MODEL VERDICT
Wave Life Sciences Ltd. (WVE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $13.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $13.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $12.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $13.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $13.84 | Below threshold | -1.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $9.29 | -33.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $7.26 | -47.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.81 | -0.9% | 100% | 58 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.42 | 6.59 | 3.41 | 16.60 | 5.50 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.42 | 6.59 | 3.41 | 16.60 | 5.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 41.80 | 15.79 | 3.97 | 151.27 | 55.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates WVE's fair value at $13.81 vs the current price of $13.93, implying -0.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.94 (P10) to $24.37 (P90), with a median of $13.27.
WVE's current P/E of -19.9x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -192.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover WVE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.00 (range: $26.00 — $50.00), implying +129.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WVE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.