MODEL VERDICT
Block, Inc. (XYZ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $63.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $49.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $57.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $69.55 | Pending | -18.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $52.94 | -16.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $43.62 | -31.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $47.99 | -24.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $57.05 | -10.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $45.29 | -28.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $61.42 | -3.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $106.86 | +67.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $125.38 | +96.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $112.52 | +76.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $48.87 | -23.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $59.41 | -6.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $581.02 | +812.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $63 | $67 | $72 | $77 | $82 |
| Conservative (24%) | $68 | $73 | $78 | $83 | $88 |
| Base Case (36.7%) | $75 | $80 | $86 | $92 | $98 |
| Bull Case (50%) | $82 | $88 | $94 | $100 | $107 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 995.96 | 283.33 | 18.68 | 4864.78 | 1908.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 188.31 | 71.32 | 24.15 | 430.85 | 202.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 110.68 | 76.88 | 24.15 | 325.55 | 112.59 |
| P/FCF | 1492.20 | 109.97 | 16.72 | 7150.38 | 3163.48 |
| P/FFO | 127.14 | 94.60 | 16.52 | 285.49 | 101.58 |
| P/TBV | 18.82 | 11.12 | 4.49 | 47.12 | 15.72 |
| P/AFFO | 192.26 | 142.11 | 17.34 | 457.91 | 168.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.80 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 39.13 | 14.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.28 | 2.24 | 1.68 | 11.05 | 3.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates XYZ's fair value at $581.02 vs the current price of $63.70, implying +812.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $581.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $126.90 (P10) to $1857.82 (P90), with a median of $731.42.
XYZ's current P/E of 30.3x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +32.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 996.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover XYZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.67 (range: $70.00 — $100.00), implying +32.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (7), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XYZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 212440.0% to approximately $1417. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.