MODEL VERDICT
Block, Inc. (XYZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $71.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $67.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $34.88 | -51.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $40.59 | -43.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $43.52 | -39.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $35.48 | -50.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $42.45 | -40.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $57.33 | -20.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $39.06 | -45.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $122.08 | +70.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $90.25 | +25.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $55.71 | -22.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $35.27 | -50.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $545.64 | +659.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $67 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Conservative (24%) | $73 | $81 | $88 | $96 | $104 |
| Base Case (36.7%) | $80 | $89 | $98 | $106 | $115 |
| Bull Case (50%) | $88 | $97 | $107 | $116 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 995.96 | 283.33 | 18.68 | 4864.78 | 1908.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 187.68 | 71.32 | 20.98 | 430.85 | 202.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 110.16 | 76.88 | 20.98 | 325.55 | 113.08 |
| P/FCF | 1492.20 | 109.97 | 16.72 | 7150.38 | 3163.48 |
| P/FFO | 118.56 | 87.09 | 16.52 | 285.49 | 108.71 |
| P/TBV | 18.82 | 11.12 | 4.49 | 47.12 | 15.72 |
| P/AFFO | 178.96 | 123.74 | 17.34 | 457.91 | 178.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.80 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 39.13 | 14.67 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.28 | 2.24 | 1.68 | 11.05 | 3.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates XYZ's fair value at $545.64 vs the current price of $71.81, implying +659.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $545.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $143.99 (P10) to $1870.24 (P90), with a median of $746.62.
XYZ's current P/E of 34.2x compares to the industry median of 20.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +65.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 996.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
35 analysts cover XYZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $83.29 (range: $72.00 — $100.00), implying +16.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (8), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that XYZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 187320.0% to approximately $1417. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.