MODEL VERDICT
Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. (ZBH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $82.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $91.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $90.89 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $154.06 | +85.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $183.05 | +120.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $92.07 | +11.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $150.79 | +81.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $127.70 | +54.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $135.30 | +63.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $130.26 | +57.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $137.12 | +65.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $91.75 | +10.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $155.41 | +87.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.55 | +94.9% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $70 | $78 | $85 | $92 | $100 |
| Conservative (7%) | $72 | $79 | $87 | $95 | $102 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $98 | $105 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $77 | $85 | $93 | $101 | $109 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 46.85 | 25.94 | 23.84 | 115.91 | 37.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 80.28 | 33.21 | 21.69 | 357.99 | 123.17 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.62 | 17.55 | 10.10 | 38.99 | 9.64 |
| P/FCF | 21.51 | 21.50 | 12.13 | 28.32 | 5.40 |
| P/FFO | 18.78 | 14.04 | 9.93 | 40.74 | 10.74 |
| P/AFFO | 21.75 | 15.55 | 11.74 | 47.78 | 12.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 2.05 | 1.41 | 2.54 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.56 | 3.76 | 2.17 | 5.05 | 0.91 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZBH's fair value at $161.55 vs the current price of $82.90, implying +94.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $135.59 (P10) to $211.53 (P90), with a median of $167.25.
ZBH's current P/E of 23.4x compares to the industry median of 25.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -10.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 46.8x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
42 analysts cover ZBH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $97.90 (range: $83.00 — $120.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZBH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7500.0% to approximately $145. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.