MODEL VERDICT
Olympic Steel, Inc. (ZEUS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $47.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $47.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $47.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $47.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $47.86 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $39.95 | -16.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $28.17 | -41.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $53.99 | +12.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $9.30 | -80.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $59.64 | +24.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $101.26 | +111.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $241.74 | +405.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $247.21 | +416.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $53.58 | +12.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $9.29 | -80.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.89 | +14.7% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $46 | $51 | $55 | $60 | $64 |
| Conservative (27%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Base Case (42.1%) | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 | $78 |
| Bull Case (57%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.34 | 10.75 | 2.23 | 52.71 | 18.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 107.51 | 12.83 | 3.62 | 684.12 | 254.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.50 | 8.68 | 3.23 | 16.62 | 4.71 |
| P/FCF | 20.68 | 2.94 | 1.73 | 91.39 | 39.55 |
| P/FFO | 6.55 | 7.11 | 1.90 | 10.77 | 3.70 |
| P/TBV | 0.91 | 0.75 | 0.58 | 1.88 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 13.18 | 15.33 | 2.06 | 33.10 | 10.53 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 1.39 | 0.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.17 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.36 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZEUS's fair value at $54.89 vs the current price of $47.86, implying +14.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.13 (P10) to $109.73 (P90), with a median of $56.68.
ZEUS's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -11.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.3x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
6 analysts cover ZEUS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.00 (range: $41.00 — $41.00), implying -14.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ZEUS trades at the 2730th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZEUS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (3.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 20560.0% to approximately $146. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.