MODEL VERDICT
Zions Bancorporation, National Association (ZION)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $63.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $61.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $62.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $61.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $58.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $71.22 | +12.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $55.51 | -12.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $60.96 | -3.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $66.23 | +4.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $71.22 | +12.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $74.65 | +18.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.06 | -5.1% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $45 | $56 | $66 | $76 | $86 |
| Conservative (5%) | $47 | $57 | $68 | $78 | $88 |
| Base Case (3.5%) | $46 | $56 | $67 | $77 | $87 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $47 | $57 | $67 | $78 | $88 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.81 | 10.09 | 8.49 | 14.34 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.96 | 11.41 | 0.80 | 14.29 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.75 | 9.68 | 0.81 | 13.04 | 3.90 |
| P/FCF | 11.94 | 8.40 | 5.77 | 23.93 | 6.49 |
| P/FFO | 8.86 | 8.80 | 7.26 | 11.51 | 1.43 |
| P/TBV | 1.48 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 1.93 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 10.67 | 9.85 | 8.87 | 15.85 | 2.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.24 | 1.30 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.40 | 2.45 | 1.40 | 3.41 | 0.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZION's fair value at $60.06 vs the current price of $63.26, implying -5.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.28 (P10) to $64.48 (P90), with a median of $60.85.
ZION's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -11.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
50 analysts cover ZION with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $67.83 (range: $60.00 — $75.00), implying +7.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (32), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ZION trades at the 4790th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZION's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2300.0% to approximately $78. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.