MODEL VERDICT
ZipRecruiter, Inc. (ZIP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 14 industry peers | $6.83 | +225.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $3.22 | +53.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 18 industry peers | $0.44 | -79.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 18 industry peers | $3.83 | +82.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $6.67 | +217.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.29 | +247.1% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 524.64 | 32.20 | 30.22 | 1511.52 | 854.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.50 | 22.67 | 17.44 | 45.37 | 14.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 664.21 | 49.44 | 19.14 | 2538.79 | 1250.02 |
| P/FCF | 17.43 | 16.39 | 14.38 | 22.54 | 3.56 |
| P/FFO | 92.51 | 27.62 | 24.21 | 225.71 | 115.36 |
| P/AFFO | 159.78 | 32.34 | 24.59 | 422.40 | 227.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 77.78 | 61.40 | 12.55 | 175.78 | 69.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.49 | 2.24 | 1.51 | 3.98 | 1.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZIP's fair value at $7.29 vs the current price of $2.10, implying +247.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.54 (P10) to $6.74 (P90), with a median of $5.61.
ZIP's current P/E of -16.2x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -188.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 524.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover ZIP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.75 (range: $4.00 — $5.50), implying +126.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ZIP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.