MODEL VERDICT
Jin Medical International Ltd. (ZJYL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $2.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $1.39 | -32.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $1.13 | -44.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $0.97 | -52.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $1.41 | -31.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $1.15 | -43.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $1.14 | -44.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $0.99 | -51.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.33 | -35.3% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 73× | 80× | 87× (Current) | 94× | 101× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 |
| Conservative (14%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Base Case (20.9%) | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| Bull Case (28%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ZJYL's fair value at $1.33 vs the current price of $2.05, implying -35.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.93 (P10) to $1.52 (P90), with a median of $1.22.
ZJYL's current P/E of 87.2x compares to the industry median of 47.9x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +81.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for ZJYL.
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ZJYL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.1σ, meaning margins are 2.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3800.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.