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FWRG vs CBRL
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
Restaurants
FWRG vs CBRL — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | ||
|---|---|---|
| Industry | Restaurants | Restaurants |
| Market Cap | $750M | $687M |
| Revenue (TTM) | $1.27B | $3.36B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $18M | $-4M |
| Gross Margin | 35.1% | 25.4% |
| Operating Margin | 2.2% | -0.4% |
| Forward P/E | 61.8x | 14.9x |
| Total Debt | $740M | $1.13B |
| Cash & Equiv. | $21M | $40M |
FWRG vs CBRL — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
| Stock | Oct 21 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Watch Restaur… (FWRG) | 100 | 56.4 | -43.6% |
| Cracker Barrel Old … (CBRL) | 100 | 23.5 | -76.5% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: FWRG vs CBRL
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
FWRG carries the broadest edge in this set and is the clearest fit for growth exposure and long-term compounding.
- Rev growth 20.3%, EPS growth 3.3%, 3Y rev CAGR 18.7%
- -45.0% 10Y total return vs CBRL's -45.5%
- 20.3% revenue growth vs CBRL's 0.4%
CBRL is the clearest fit if your priority is income & stability and sleep-well-at-night.
- Dividend streak 0 yrs, beta 1.38, yield 3.3%
- Lower volatility, beta 1.38, current ratio 0.50x
- Beta 1.38, yield 3.3%, current ratio 0.50x
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | 20.3% revenue growth vs CBRL's 0.4% | |
| Value | Lower P/E (14.9x vs 61.8x) | |
| Quality / Margins | 1.4% margin vs CBRL's -0.1% | |
| Stability / Safety | Beta 1.38 vs FWRG's 1.59 | |
| Dividends | 3.3% yield; the other pay no meaningful dividend | |
| Momentum (1Y) | -20.6% vs CBRL's -25.6% | |
| Efficiency (ROA) | 1.0% ROA vs CBRL's -0.2%, ROIC 1.9% vs 2.6% |
FWRG vs CBRL — Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
FWRG vs CBRL — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 2 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
FWRG leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
CBRL is the larger business by revenue, generating $3.4B annually — 2.6x FWRG's $1.3B. Profitability is closely matched — net margins range from 1.4% (FWRG) to -0.1% (CBRL). On growth, FWRG holds the edge at +17.3% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $1.3B | $3.4B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $108M | $120M |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $18M | -$4M |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | -$9M | -$21M |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +35.1% | +25.4% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +2.2% | -0.4% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +1.4% | -0.1% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +17.3% | -7.9% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | -194.1% | -94.2% |
Valuation Metrics
CBRL leads this category, winning 3 of 4 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
At 14.9x trailing earnings, CBRL trades at a 62% valuation discount to FWRG's 39.3x P/E. On an enterprise value basis, CBRL's 9.3x EV/EBITDA is more attractive than FWRG's 13.5x.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $750M | $687M |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 39.26x | 14.91x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 61.84x | — |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | — | — |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 13.50x | 9.35x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 0.61x | 0.20x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 1.22x | 1.49x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | — | 11.40x |
Profitability & Efficiency
FWRG leads this category, winning 6 of 9 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
FWRG delivers a 2.9% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $3 in annual profit, vs $-1 for CBRL. FWRG carries lower financial leverage with a 1.18x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to CBRL's 2.44x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), CBRL scores 7/9 vs FWRG's 5/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +2.9% | -0.9% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +1.0% | -0.2% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +1.9% | +2.6% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +2.3% | +3.4% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 5 | 7 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 1.18x | 2.44x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $718M | $1.1B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $21M | $40M |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $740M | $1.1B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 3.15x | -0.57x |
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
FWRG leads this category, winning 5 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in FWRG five years ago would be worth $5,499 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $2,964 for CBRL. Over the past 12 months, FWRG leads with a -20.6% total return vs CBRL's -25.6%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors FWRG at -10.2% vs CBRL's -27.9% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -20.8% | +16.3% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | -20.6% | -25.6% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -27.6% | -62.5% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -45.0% | -70.4% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | -45.0% | -45.5% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | -10.2% | -27.9% |
Risk & Volatility
Evenly matched — FWRG and CBRL each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
CBRL is the less volatile stock with a 1.38 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than FWRG's 1.59 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. FWRG currently trades 62.3% from its 52-week high vs CBRL's 42.7% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.59x | 1.38x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $19.53 | $71.93 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $10.10 | $24.85 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +62.3% | +42.7% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 46.6 | 49.0 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 1.7M | 1.1M |
Analyst Outlook
Insufficient data to determine a leader in this category.
Analyst Outlook
Wall Street rates FWRG as "Buy" and CBRL as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 56.1% upside for FWRG (target: $19) vs -0.4% for CBRL (target: $31). CBRL is the only dividend payer here at 3.35% yield — a key consideration for income-focused portfolios.
| Metric | ||
|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $19.00 | $30.60 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 15 | 31 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | — | +3.3% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | — | 0 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | — | $1.03 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | 0.0% | +0.2% |
FWRG leads in 3 of 6 categories (Income & Cash Flow, Profitability & Efficiency). CBRL leads in 1 (Valuation Metrics). 1 tied.
FWRG vs CBRL: Frequently Asked Questions
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is FWRG or CBRL a better buy right now?
For growth investors, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
(FWRG) is the stronger pick with 20. 3% revenue growth year-over-year, versus 0. 4% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL). Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) offers the better valuation at 14. 9x trailing P/E, making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) a "Buy" — based on 15 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — FWRG or CBRL?
On trailing P/E, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
(CBRL) is the cheapest at 14. 9x versus First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. at 39. 3x.
03Which is the better long-term investment — FWRG or CBRL?
Over the past 5 years, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
(FWRG) delivered a total return of -45. 0%, compared to -70. 4% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: FWRG returned -45. 0% versus CBRL's -45. 8%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — FWRG or CBRL?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
(CBRL) is the lower-risk stock at 1. 38β versus First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. 's 1. 59β — meaning FWRG is approximately 15% more volatile than CBRL relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 118% versus 2% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — FWRG or CBRL?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
(FWRG) is pulling ahead at 20. 3% versus 0. 4% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. grew EPS 12. 6% year-over-year, compared to 3. 3% for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.. Over a 3-year CAGR, FWRG leads at 18. 7% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — FWRG or CBRL?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
(FWRG) is the more profitable company, earning 1. 6% net margin versus 1. 3% for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. — meaning it keeps 1. 6% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: FWRG leads at 2. 8% versus 1. 6% for CBRL. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CBRL leads at 33. 0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is FWRG or CBRL more undervalued right now?
Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for FWRG: 56.
1% to $19. 00.
08Which pays a better dividend — FWRG or CBRL?
In this comparison, CBRL (3.
3% yield) pays a dividend. FWRG does not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.
09Is FWRG or CBRL better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.
(CBRL) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (3. 3% yield). First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) carries a higher beta of 1. 59 — meaning larger drawdowns in market downturns, which matters significantly when you cannot wait years for a recovery. Both have compounded well over 10 years (CBRL: -45. 8%, FWRG: -45. 0%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between FWRG and CBRL?
Both stocks operate in the Consumer Cyclical sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.
In terms of investment character: FWRG is a small-cap high-growth stock; CBRL is a small-cap deep-value stock. CBRL pays a dividend while FWRG does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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