GFL vs WCN

For growth investors, GFL Environmental Inc.

(GFL) is the stronger pick with 7. 8% revenue growth year-over-year, versus 6. 5% for Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN). GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) offers the better valuation at 5. 0x trailing P/E (39. 7x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) a "Buy" — based on 18 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, GFL Environmental Inc.

(GFL) is the cheapest at 5. 0x versus Waste Connections, Inc. at 37. 7x. On forward P/E, Waste Connections, Inc. is actually cheaper at 28. 7x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth.

Over the past 5 years, Waste Connections, Inc.

(WCN) delivered a total return of +32. 3%, compared to +13. 3% for GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: WCN returned +268. 8% versus GFL's +122. 7%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Waste Connections, Inc.

(WCN) is the lower-risk stock at -0. 03β versus GFL Environmental Inc. 's 0. 20β — meaning GFL is approximately -690% more volatile than WCN relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 106% versus 114% for Waste Connections, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), GFL Environmental Inc.

(GFL) is pulling ahead at 7. 8% versus 6. 5% for Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: GFL Environmental Inc. grew EPS 573. 5% year-over-year, compared to 74. 9% for Waste Connections, Inc.. Over a 3-year CAGR, WCN leads at 9. 6% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

GFL Environmental Inc.

(GFL) is the more profitable company, earning 58. 0% net margin versus 11. 4% for Waste Connections, Inc. — meaning it keeps 58. 0% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: WCN leads at 18. 1% versus 5. 2% for GFL. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — WCN leads at 39. 0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

On forward earnings alone, Waste Connections, Inc.

(WCN) trades at 28. 7x forward P/E versus 39. 7x for GFL Environmental Inc. — 11. 1x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for GFL: 53. 2% to $56. 67.

All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) offers the highest yield at 0. 8%, versus 0. 2% for GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL).

For long-horizon retirement investors, Waste Connections, Inc.

(WCN) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β -0. 03), 0. 8% yield, +268. 8% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (WCN: +268. 8%, GFL: +122. 7%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

Both stocks operate in the Industrials sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.

In terms of investment character: GFL is a mid-cap deep-value stock; WCN is a mid-cap quality compounder stock. WCN pays a dividend while GFL does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.