PROV vs ICE vs CME vs WAFD

For growth investors, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

(ICE) is the stronger pick with 7. 5% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -1. 6% for WaFd, Inc. (WAFD). WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) offers the better valuation at 14. 1x trailing P/E (11. 4x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) a "Buy" — based on 36 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, WaFd, Inc.

(WAFD) is the cheapest at 14. 1x versus Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. at 24. 4x. On forward P/E, WaFd, Inc. is actually cheaper at 11. 4x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: CME Group Inc. wins at 1. 60x versus WaFd, Inc. 's 3. 69x — a reasonable growth-adjusted valuation.

Over the past 5 years, CME Group Inc.

(CME) delivered a total return of +46. 2%, compared to +18. 2% for Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: CME returned +262. 4% versus PROV's +25. 8%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), CME Group Inc.

(CME) is the lower-risk stock at -0. 28β versus WaFd, Inc. 's 0. 66β — meaning WAFD is approximately -336% more volatile than CME relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, CME Group Inc. (CME) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 13% versus 166% for Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

(ICE) is pulling ahead at 7. 5% versus -1. 6% for WaFd, Inc. (WAFD). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. grew EPS 20. 7% year-over-year, compared to -12. 3% for Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

CME Group Inc.

(CME) is the more profitable company, earning 62. 0% net margin versus 10. 4% for Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 62. 0% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: CME leads at 64. 9% versus 14. 8% for PROV. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CME leads at 86. 1%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.

By this metric, CME Group Inc. (CME) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 1. 60x versus WaFd, Inc. 's 3. 69x. Both stocks trade at elevated growth-adjusted valuations, so expected growth needs to materialise. On forward earnings alone, WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) trades at 11. 4x forward P/E versus 22. 0x for CME Group Inc. — 10. 6x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for ICE: 38. 0% to $194. 00.

All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.

CME Group Inc. (CME) offers the highest yield at 4. 1%, versus 1. 4% for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE).

For long-horizon retirement investors, CME Group Inc.

(CME) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β -0. 28), 4. 1% yield, +262. 4% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (CME: +262. 4%, WAFD: +91. 9%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.

In terms of investment character: PROV is a small-cap income-oriented stock; ICE is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; CME is a mid-cap income-oriented stock; WAFD is a small-cap deep-value stock. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.