Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE)
Valuation Overview•Is Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 72/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
ICE demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (30.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.7% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.1B | +7.5% | — | — | +10.4% | |
| EBITDA | $1.6B | — | +11.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $840.0M | +20.0% | +31.7% | — | +10.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.49 | +20.7% | +30.8% | +8.9% | +9.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | +2.0% | +11.8% | +11.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 61.9% | 58.2% | 56.6% | 55.8% |
| Operating Margin | 38.7% | 37.6% | 37.6% | 38.4% |
| Net Margin | 26.1% | 24.5% | 26.5% | 28.6% |
| FCF Margin | 33.9% | 33.5% | 32.3% | 32.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.23 | $2.35 | +5.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.68 | $1.71 | +1.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.60 | $1.71 | +6.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.77 | $1.81 | +2.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.70 | $1.72 | +1.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.53 | $1.52 | -0.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.55 | $1.55 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.49 | $1.52 | +2.0% |
Total return is -24.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -49.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -15.7% | -25.0% | — |
| 1Y | -24.4% | -49.4% | +1.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +7.5% | -11.8% | +5.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +4.8% | -7.8% | +7.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +11.3% | -2.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) valuation, health, and returns.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $141.86)
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $141.86 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $141.91 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $194.00 (implying +44.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 72/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.5%.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. pays a 1.4% dividend yield, covered by a 33% payout ratio with 13 years of growth, supplemented by a 1.8% buyback yield.
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +7.5% 1Y revenue growth and +20.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 36 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +44.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. include: -29.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.37x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.