Upside case
Bull case
$40+1077.4%
ABEV would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 36x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
14
analysts
2 bullish · 5 bearish · 14 covering ABEV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
7
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$3
-15.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$17 – $40
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
3.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.6B
ABEV price targets
Three scenarios for where ABEV stock could go
Current
~$3
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $3
Bear
$17
Base
$22
Bull
$40
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$22+561.1%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$17+393.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ABEV down roughly 393% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ambev S.A.
ABEV · NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - AlcoholicDecember year-end
Ambev is a leading brewer and beverage company that produces, distributes, and sells beer and non-alcoholic drinks across the Americas. It generates revenue primarily from beer sales—which dominate its portfolio—and secondarily from soft drinks, bottled water, and other beverages through its extensive distribution network. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dominant market position in Brazil and Latin America, strong portfolio of local and international brands, and massive scale in production and distribution.
Market Cap
$52.6B
Revenue TTM
$88.2B
Net Income TTM
$15.5B
Net Margin
17.6%
ABEV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+18.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.03/$0.03
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.04/$0.04
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.05/$0.05
Revenue
$5.2B/$4.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.05/$0.04
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.03/$0.03 | +0.0% | $3.7B/$4.2B | -11.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.04/$0.04 | +0.0% | $3.9B/$4.8B | -18.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05/$0.05 | +0.0% | $5.2B/$4.6B | +13.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05/$0.04 | +21.2% | $4.5B/$4.4B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$98.9B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$108.5B
+9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.10
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$1.20
+9.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$19.8B
FCF Margin: 22.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ABEV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ABEV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $21 — implies +619.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
619.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ABEV
16.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
33% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
ABEV
16.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
12% discount
vs ABEV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.8x
vs
5Y Average
2.8x
+498% premium
Forward PE
3.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-83%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
-78%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
-12%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+498%
PEG Ratio
2.56x
S&P 500
1.72x
+49%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+37%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-46%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
-29%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+725%
Price/FCF
13.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-38%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
-12%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+461%
Price/Sales
2.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-6%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+256%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+496%
Dividend Yield
7.84%
S&P 500
1.87%
+320%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
+181%
5Y Avg
13.86%
-43%
| Metric | ABEV | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg ABEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 3.3x | 19.1x-83% | 15.0x-78% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.8x | 25.1x-33% | 19.1x-12% | 2.8x+498% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.56x | 1.72x+49% | 1.87x+37% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2x | 15.2x-46% | 11.5x-29% | 1.0x+725% |
| Price/FCF | 13.1x | 21.1x-38% | 14.9x-12% | 2.3x+461% |
| Price/Sales | 2.9x | 3.1x | 0.8x+256% | 0.5x+496% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.84% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 13.86% |
ABEV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolABEV Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ABEV generates $19.8B in free cash flow at a 22.5% margin — 23.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$88.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.99
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$19.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$18.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$13.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.6%
Dividend
7.8%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
132.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
15.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageABEV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Currency & Cost Volatility
Exchange rate fluctuations between the Brazilian Real (BRL) and the U.S. Dollar (USD) expose Ambev to margin compression; sales are largely in BRL while packaging and malt costs are priced in USD. A devaluation of the Real can erode USD revenue and increase the cost base, directly impacting profitability.
High Risk
Dividend Sustainability
Ambev’s payout ratio reached 183.33% in April 2026, exceeding its retained earnings. Coupled with strict Brazilian foreign‑exchange controls, this raises concerns about the ability to maintain current dividend levels without jeopardizing liquidity.
Medium
Litigation & Tax Contingencies
The company faces growing tax contingencies in Brazil, partly due to adjustments tied to the SELIC rate. Ongoing tax disputes could result in significant liabilities and impact cash flows.
Medium
Input Cost Volatility
Key raw materials such as barley, maize, energy, and packaging are subject to agricultural cycles and commodity price swings. Adverse weather or a poor harvest can squeeze margins and increase operating costs.
Lower
Mature Beer Market
Certain beer segments are mature or declining, requiring premiumization and product innovation to sustain growth. Failure to adapt could slow revenue expansion.
Lower
Climate & Supply Chain
Weather extremes affect agricultural inputs and consumption patterns, while supply chain disruptions can delay product availability. These factors can erode margins and delay revenue recognition.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ABEV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Financial Performance & Margin Expansion
Ambev reported Q4 2025 revenue of BRL 24.81 billion and net income of BRL 4.35 billion, with an operating margin of 27.8%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached BRL 97.5 billion and the net profit margin stood at 17.57%. The company’s revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 7% over the past five years, with earnings expanding at 3% annually and a 7.4% acceleration last year.
High Dividend Yield for Shareholder Returns
Ambev offers a dividend yield of approximately 6.94%, providing attractive returns to shareholders. The company’s dividend payout ratio remains sustainable given its strong cash flow generation.
Dominant Market Position in the Americas
Ambev is the leading beverage company in the Americas, backed by a strong brand portfolio and an extensive distribution network that reaches every corner of the region.
Explosive Growth in Digital Ecosystem
The company’s digital ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with its marketplace initiative’s GMV soaring and the DTC platform Ze Delivery experiencing a significant increase in GMV.
Premiumization Strategy Driving Market Share
Ambev’s premiumization strategy, focusing on premium and super‑premium brands, has successfully captured market share in Brazil, reinforcing its growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ABEV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$3.37
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.10
+60.5% from the low
52-Week High
$3.42
-1.5% from the high
1 Month
+12.71%
3 Month
+15.81%
YTD
+36.4%
1 Year
+37.0%
3Y CAGR
+5.3%
5Y CAGR
+3.8%
10Y CAGR
-4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ABEV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
3.3x
vs 18.8x median
-82% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +0.2% median
+3726% above peer median
Net Margin
17.6%
vs 8.8% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABE ABEV Ambev S.A. | $52.6B | 3.3x | +9.3% | 17.6% | Hold | -15.7% |
BUD BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | $138.3B | 18.8x | -11.2% | 10.5% | Buy | +10.7% |
TAP TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | $7.9B | 9.0x | -0.8% | -18.9% | Hold | +14.5% |
SAM SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. | $2.2B | 20.9x | +0.2% | -2.9% | Hold | +19.7% |
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $337.8B | 24.1x | +2.0% | 27.8% | Buy | +9.2% |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $211.9B | 17.9x | +4.1% | 8.8% | Hold | +12.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ABEV Dividend and Capital Return
ABEV returns 8.6% total yield, led by a 7.84% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
7.84%
Payout Ratio
1.3%
How ABEV Splits Its Return
Div 7.84%
Dividend 7.84%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.2%
5Y Div CAGR
24.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
571M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
15.6B
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.20 | +97.5% | 5.0% | 57.8% |
| 2024 | $0.10 | -30.4% | 1.6% | 15.5% |
| 2023 | $0.15 | +20.1% | 0.3% | 27.2% |
| 2022 | $0.12 | +12.0% | 0.1% | 28.5% |
| 2021 | $0.11 | +63.1% | 0.1% | 25.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsABEV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $3, implying -15.7% from the current price of $3. The bear case scenario is $17 and the bull case is $40.
02What is the ABEV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ABEV is $3 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $3 (-11.0% from today), and the low-end target is $3 (-21.4%). The base case model target is $22.
03Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock overvalued in 2026?
ABEV trades at 3.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ABEV in 2026 are: (1) Currency & Cost Volatility — Exchange rate fluctuations between the Brazilian Real (BRL) and the U. (2) Dividend Sustainability — Ambev’s payout ratio reached 183. (3) Litigation & Tax Contingencies — The company faces growing tax contingencies in Brazil, partly due to adjustments tied to the SELIC rate. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ambev S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ABEV will report consensus revenue of $98.9B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.10 (+7.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $108.5B in revenue.
06When does Ambev S.A. (ABEV) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ABEV is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ambev S.A. generate?
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) generated $19.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.5%. ABEV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).