Upside case
Bull case
$25+692.6%
ABEV would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
14
analysts
2 bullish · 5 bearish · 14 covering ABEV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
7
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$3
+2.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$12 – $25
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
14
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $48.7B
ABEV price targets
Three scenarios for where ABEV stock could go
Current
~$3
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $3
Bear
$12
Base
$19
Bull
$25
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$19+501.6%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$12+279.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ABEV down roughly 279% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ambev S.A.
ABEV · NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - AlcoholicDecember year-end
Ambev is a leading brewer and beverage company that produces, distributes, and sells beer and non-alcoholic drinks across the Americas. It generates revenue primarily from beer sales—which dominate its portfolio—and secondarily from soft drinks, bottled water, and other beverages through its extensive distribution network. The company's competitive advantage lies in its dominant market position in Brazil and Latin America, strong portfolio of local and international brands, and massive scale in production and distribution.
Market Cap
$48.7B
Revenue TTM
$88.2B
Net Income TTM
$15.6B
Net Margin
17.7%
ABEV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+17.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.03/$0.03
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.04/$0.04
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.05/$0.05
Revenue
$5.2B/$4.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.05/$0.05
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.03/$0.03 | +0.0% | $3.7B/$4.2B | -11.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.04/$0.04 | +0.0% | $3.9B/$4.8B | -18.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05/$0.05 | +0.0% | $5.2B/$4.6B | +13.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.05/$0.05 | +0.0% | $4.6B/$4.4B | +4.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$93.8B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$98.4B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.07
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$1.13
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$22.2B
FCF Margin: 25.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.04
Expected Revenue
$4.3B
ABEV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ABEV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $17 — implies +456.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
456.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ABEV
16.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
34% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
ABEV
16.1x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
15% discount
vs ABEV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.1x
vs
5Y Average
2.8x
+474% premium
Forward PE
2.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-84%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-79%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-34%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-15%
5Y Avg
2.8x
+474%
PEG Ratio
2.45x
S&P 500
1.66x
+48%
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
+28%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-47%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
-27%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+710%
Price/FCF
12.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-39%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-18%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+439%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-9%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+221%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+472%
Dividend Yield
8.17%
S&P 500
1.91%
+327%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+167%
5Y Avg
13.86%
-41%
| Metric | ABEV | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg ABEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.9x | 18.8x-84% | 14.2x-79% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.1x | 24.4x-34% | 18.9x-15% | 2.8x+474% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.45x | 1.66x+48% | 1.92x+28% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1x | 15.2x-47% | 11.1x-27% | 1.0x+710% |
| Price/FCF | 12.6x | 20.7x-39% | 15.3x-18% | 2.3x+439% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x | 0.9x+221% | 0.5x+472% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.17% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 13.86% |
ABEV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolABEV Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ABEV generates $22.2B in free cash flow at a 25.1% margin — 22.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 8.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$88.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.99
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$22.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$18.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$13.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.9%
Dividend
8.2%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
132.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
15.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageABEV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Weakening beer demand
Ambev's stocks have declined due to heightened concerns about weakening beer demand in key markets.
High Risk
Analyst downgrade
UBS downgraded Ambev to Sell from Neutral, citing unfavorable risk/reward after a 32% six-month rally.
Medium
Market sentiment shift
Following the downgrade, ABEV slipped 2.4%, reflecting negative market sentiment.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Analysts argue the stock's risk/reward no longer justifies its valuation after the recent rally.
Lower
Operational risks
Ambev disclosed 49 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating broad operational challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ABEV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Attractive valuation metrics
Ambev S.A. has trailing and forward P/E ratios of 13.45 and 13.26 respectively, indicating a potentially undervalued stock.
Emerging market growth
The bullish thesis highlights Ambev's strong position in emerging markets, which offers significant growth potential.
Premiumization strategy
Ambev is focusing on premiumization, which could drive higher margins and revenue growth in its product offerings.
Stable performance outlook
Analysts project stable performance and great potential for Ambev in 2026, reinforcing the bullish case.
Increasing hedge fund interest
The number of hedge funds holding ABEV increased from 21 to 23 in the second quarter, signaling growing institutional confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ABEV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$3.12
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.10
+48.6% from the low
52-Week High
$3.45
-9.6% from the high
1 Month
-0.64%
3 Month
+10.25%
YTD
+26.3%
1 Year
+29.5%
3Y CAGR
+0.1%
5Y CAGR
-3.3%
10Y CAGR
-5.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ABEV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.9x
vs 18.4x median
-84% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs +2.7% median
+129% above peer median
Net Margin
17.7%
vs 8.8% median
+101% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABE ABEV Ambev S.A. | $48.7B | 2.9x | +6.3% | 17.7% | Hold | +2.6% |
BUD BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | $138.9B | 18.4x | +2.7% | 10.5% | Buy | +10.2% |
TAP TAP Molson Coors Beverage Company | $7.4B | 8.3x | +0.7% | -18.9% | Hold | +19.3% |
SAM SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc. | $1.9B | 18.5x | +3.4% | -2.9% | Hold | +37.6% |
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $341.7B | 24.3x | +2.7% | 27.8% | Buy | +8.5% |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $194.1B | 16.4x | +4.6% | 8.8% | Hold | +18.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ABEV Dividend and Capital Return
ABEV returns 8.9% total yield, led by a 8.17% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
8.17%
Payout Ratio
1.3%
How ABEV Splits Its Return
Div 8.17%
Dividend 8.17%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.9%
5Y Div CAGR
20.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
617M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
15.6B
At 4.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.20 | +86.6% | 5.0% | 57.8% |
| 2024 | $0.11 | -28.2% | 1.6% | 15.5% |
| 2023 | $0.15 | +4.6% | 0.3% | 27.2% |
| 2022 | $0.14 | +17.6% | 0.1% | 28.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsABEV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 14 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $3, implying +2.6% from the current price of $3. The bear case scenario is $12 and the bull case is $25.
02What is the ABEV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ABEV is $3 based on 14 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $4 (+12.2% from today), and the low-end target is $3 (-7.1%). The base case model target is $19.
03Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock overvalued in 2026?
ABEV trades at 2.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ambev S.A. (ABEV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ABEV in 2026 are: (1) Weakening beer demand — Ambev's stocks have declined due to heightened concerns about weakening beer demand in key markets. (2) Analyst downgrade — UBS downgraded Ambev to Sell from Neutral, citing unfavorable risk/reward after a 32% six-month rally. (3) Market sentiment shift — Following the downgrade, ABEV slipped 2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ambev S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ABEV will report consensus revenue of $93.8B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.07 (+7.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $98.4B in revenue.
06When does Ambev S.A. (ABEV) report its next earnings?
Ambev S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.04 and revenue of $4.3B. Over recent quarters, ABEV has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ambev S.A. generate?
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) generated $22.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.1%. ABEV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).