Upside case
Bull case
$106+35.1%
KO would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
29 bullish · 3 bearish · 48 covering KO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
29
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$86
+9.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$47 – $106
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $337.8B
KO price targets
Three scenarios for where KO stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $78
Bear
$47
Base
$88
Bull
$106
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$88+12.4%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$47-40.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push KO down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Coca-Cola Company
KO · NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Non-AlcoholicDecember year-end
Coca-Cola is a global beverage company that manufactures and sells non-alcoholic drinks worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through concentrate sales to bottling partners (~40% of revenue) and finished product sales (~60%), with sparkling soft drinks like Coca-Cola, Sprite, and Fanta representing the majority of sales. Its key competitive advantage is an unparalleled global distribution network and one of the world's most valuable brand portfolios, creating massive economies of scale and pricing power.
Market Cap
$337.8B
Revenue TTM
$49.3B
Net Income TTM
$13.7B
Net Margin
27.8%
KO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.87/$0.83
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.78
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.56
Revenue
$11.8B/$12.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.81
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.87/$0.83 | +4.3% | $12.5B/$12.6B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.82/$0.78 | +5.3% | $12.5B/$12.4B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$0.56 | +2.7% | $11.8B/$12.0B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.86/$0.81 | +5.9% | $12.5B/$12.2B | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$50.3B
+2.0% YoY
FY2
$51.9B
+3.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.27
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$3.42
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$12.6B
FCF Margin: 25.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pacific
84.6%
-18.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
62.1%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pacific is the largest disclosed segment at 84.6% of FY 2025 revenue, down 18.6% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 62.1%, up 5.0% YoY.
KO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $54 — implies -30.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KO
25.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
KO
25.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+35% premium
vs KO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.8x
vs
5Y Average
25.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
24.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+26%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+61%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+3%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+35%
5Y Avg
25.5x
+1%
PEG Ratio
2.31x
S&P 500
1.72x
+35%
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
+24%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+65%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+119%
5Y Avg
24.7x
+2%
Price/FCF
63.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+202%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
+327%
5Y Avg
38.3x
+66%
Price/Sales
7.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+125%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+752%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+15%
Dividend Yield
2.59%
S&P 500
1.87%
+39%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
-7%
5Y Avg
2.94%
-12%
| Metric | KO | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg KO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.1x | 19.1x+26% | 15.0x+61% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.8x | 25.1x | 19.1x+35% | 25.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.31x | 1.72x+35% | 1.87x+24% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.2x | 15.2x+65% | 11.5x+119% | 24.7x |
| Price/FCF | 63.8x | 21.1x+202% | 14.9x+327% | 38.3x+66% |
| Price/Sales | 7.0x | 3.1x+125% | 0.8x+752% | 6.1x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.59% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 2.94% |
KO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
KO generates $12.6B in free cash flow at a 25.5% margin — 15.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$49.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
27.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$12.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$35.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.8× FCF
~2.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$746M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
67.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageKO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Currency Fluctuations
With over 50% of its revenue generated internationally, a stronger U.S. dollar compresses reported revenue and earnings. Exchange rate swings can erode margins and reduce net income in dollar terms.
High Risk
Sugar Regulation
Governments worldwide are imposing sugar taxes, front‑of‑pack warning labels, and portion‑size restrictions, which raise costs and reduce demand for sugary sodas. These measures can directly lower sales volumes and force price increases that may not be fully passed to consumers.
High Risk
Shifting Consumer Preferences
A sustained global shift toward healthier beverages, especially among younger consumers, presents a long‑term headwind to Coca‑Cola’s core sugary product line. Reduced consumption of sugary sodas can translate into declining sales and pressure on revenue growth.
Medium
Inflation & Economic Instability
Rising inflation, higher interest rates, and economic instability in emerging markets can dampen consumer spending and increase input costs, squeezing margins.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Transportation bottlenecks, labor shortages, and raw material availability issues threaten the stability of Coca‑Cola’s supply chain, potentially leading to product shortages and higher logistics costs.
Medium
Water Scarcity
Growing global water demand and deteriorating water quality can raise operating costs, limit bottling capacity, and damage the brand’s reputation, especially in water‑sensitive regions.
Lower
Bottler Debt Levels
Coca‑Cola Consolidated, a major bottler, carries substantial debt, which could impact earnings and limit its ability to invest in growth or weather downturns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Steady Growth & Margin Expansion
Coca‑Cola targets 4‑5% organic revenue growth and 7‑8% comparable EPS growth in 2026, driven by pricing discipline and productivity gains. Emerging‑market demand, value‑added dairy products and digital platforms underpin this outlook.
Dividend Aristocracy
The company has increased its dividend for 64 consecutive years, making it a leading dividend‑aristocrat. This consistent capital return attracts income‑focused investors.
Brand Strength & Diversification
Coca‑Cola’s global brand recognition is bolstered by expansion into high‑growth categories such as value‑added dairy (Fairlife) and coffee, positioning it for continued success.
Asset‑Light Model
An asset‑light operating model enhances cash generation resilience, enabling the firm to return capital to shareholders while maintaining operational flexibility.
Strategic Investments in Emerging Markets
Investments in Fairlife and expansion in India and Africa are expected to drive future volume recovery and growth, leveraging high‑growth regional opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.48
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$65.35
+20.1% from the low
52-Week High
$82.00
-4.3% from the high
1 Month
+1.63%
3 Month
-0.04%
YTD
+13.5%
1 Year
+9.5%
3Y CAGR
+7.0%
5Y CAGR
+7.8%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.1x
vs 17.9x median
+35% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.0%
vs +10.9% median
-82% below peer median
Net Margin
27.8%
vs 10.8% median
+157% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO KO The Coca-Cola Company | $337.8B | 24.1x | +2.0% | 27.8% | Buy | +9.2% |
PEP PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $211.9B | 17.9x | +4.1% | 8.8% | Hold | +12.2% |
MNS MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $74.1B | 33.6x | +10.9% | 23.0% | Buy | +12.6% |
CEL CELH Celsius Holdings, Inc. | $8.6B | 20.9x | +42.8% | 4.3% | Buy | +76.0% |
FIZ FIZZ National Beverage Corp. | $3.3B | 17.4x | +1.2% | 15.6% | Sell | -2.6% |
KDP KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $39.3B | 12.7x | +20.0% | 10.8% | Buy | +11.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KO Dividend and Capital Return
KO returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 2.59% dividend, raised 35 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
2.59%
Payout Ratio
67.0%
How KO Splits Its Return
Div 2.59%
Dividend 2.59%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
35Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.0%
5Y Div CAGR
4.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$746M
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.3B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.53 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +5.2% | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 2024 | $1.94 | +5.4% | 0.7% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $1.84 | +4.5% | 0.9% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $1.76 | +4.8% | 0.5% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsKO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Coca-Cola Company (KO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 29 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $86, implying +9.2% from the current price of $78. The bear case scenario is $47 and the bull case is $106.
02What is the KO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KO is $86 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $88 (+12.1% from today), and the low-end target is $83 (+5.8%). The base case model target is $88.
03Is The Coca-Cola Company (KO) stock overvalued in 2026?
KO trades at 24.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Coca-Cola Company (KO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KO in 2026 are: (1) Currency Fluctuations — With over 50% of its revenue generated internationally, a stronger U. (2) Sugar Regulation — Governments worldwide are imposing sugar taxes, front‑of‑pack warning labels, and portion‑size restrictions, which raise costs and reduce demand for sugary sodas. (3) Shifting Consumer Preferences — A sustained global shift toward healthier beverages, especially among younger consumers, presents a long‑term headwind to Coca‑Cola’s core sugary product line. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Coca-Cola Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KO will report consensus revenue of $50.3B (+2.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.27 (+3.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $51.9B in revenue.
06When does The Coca-Cola Company (KO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Coca-Cola Company generate?
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) generated $12.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.5%. KO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($746M TTM).