Upside case
Bull case
$189+151.4%
ADM would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
36
analysts
12 bullish · 3 bearish · 36 covering ADM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+0.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$90 – $189
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $36.2B
ADM price targets
Three scenarios for where ADM stock could go
Current
~$75
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $75
Bear
$90
Base
$143
Bull
$189
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$143+90.8%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$90+20.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push ADM down roughly 20% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM · NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsDecember year-end
Archer-Daniels-Midland is a global agricultural processor and commodity trader that transforms crops like oilseeds, corn, and wheat into food ingredients, animal feed, and industrial products. It makes money through three main segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (~60% of revenue), Carbohydrate Solutions (~25%), and Nutrition (~15%), with profits coming from processing margins, trading spreads, and value-added ingredient sales. The company's key advantage is its massive global logistics network—including storage, transportation, and processing facilities—that creates significant economies of scale and market access.
Market Cap
$36.2B
Revenue TTM
$80.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
1.3%
ADM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
0%Mixed
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.82
Revenue
$21.2B/$22.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.85
Revenue
$20.4B/$20.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.80
Revenue
$18.6B/$21.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.64
Revenue
$20.5B/$21.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.93/$0.82 | +13.8% | $21.2B/$22.0B | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92/$0.85 | +8.4% | $20.4B/$20.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.80 | +9.2% | $18.6B/$21.1B | -11.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.71/$0.64 | +10.8% | $20.5B/$21.4B | -4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$81.7B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$84.2B
+3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.26
+45.8% YoY
FY2
$3.98
+22.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 6.0%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.41
Expected Revenue
$22.8B
ADM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ADM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $79.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ag Services and Oilseeds
77.1%
-7.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
38.8%
-7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ag Services and Oilseeds is the largest disclosed segment at 77.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 38.8%, down 7.1% YoY.
ADM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $57 — implies -23.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
23.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADM
33.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+38% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
ADM
33.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+78% premium
vs ADM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
33.7x
vs
5Y Average
15.4x
+119% premium
Forward PE
16.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-14%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
33.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+38%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+78%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+119%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+10%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+51%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+45%
Price/FCF
8.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-58%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-44%
5Y Avg
14.3x
-40%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-85%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-49%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+12%
Dividend Yield
2.72%
S&P 500
1.91%
+42%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
-11%
5Y Avg
2.78%
-2%
| Metric | ADM | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg ADM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.2x | 18.8x-14% | 14.2x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 33.7x | 24.4x+38% | 18.9x+78% | 15.4x+119% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.7x | 15.2x+10% | 11.1x+51% | 11.5x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 8.6x | 20.7x-58% | 15.3x-44% | 14.3x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-85% | 0.9x-49% | 0.4x+12% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.72% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.78% |
ADM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ADM returns 2.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$80.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
5.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
91.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
482M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Violations
ADM and former executives were charged by the SEC for materially inflating the performance of its Nutrition segment, misleading investors.
High Risk
Financial Misconduct
ADM was fined $40M in a price-fixing probe, indicating historical issues with corporate governance and compliance.
High Risk
Margin Pressure
Morgan Stanley cited weakening margins in ADM's Carbohydrate Solutions unit and repeated cuts to its 2025 profit outlook.
Medium
Biofuel Policy Uncertainty
ADM faces risks from regulatory delays and uncertainty in biofuel policies, impacting profitability.
Medium
Trade Disruptions
Trade disruptions are contributing to softer agricultural services and oilseed profits, affecting overall performance.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Analyst downgrades and negative sentiment may weigh on ADM's stock performance in the near term.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Earnings beat and dividend increase
Archer-Daniels-Midland reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that exceeded earnings estimates and raised its quarterly dividend by 2%, signaling financial strength.
Upgraded earnings outlook
Analysts have lifted full-year earnings estimates for Archer-Daniels-Midland, reflecting a stronger earnings outlook compared to earlier expectations.
Global operational scale
ADM operates a vast global network with over 800 facilities across more than 200 countries, providing significant market reach and operational resilience.
Agricultural commodities leadership
As one of the world's largest agricultural commodities processors and trading companies, ADM benefits from its dominant position in the industry.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$75.10
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.34
+46.3% from the low
52-Week High
$85.36
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
-7.18%
3 Month
+5.97%
YTD
+27.2%
1 Year
+39.1%
3Y CAGR
+0.5%
5Y CAGR
+4.4%
10Y CAGR
+5.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.2x
vs 9.8x median
+65% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +4.0% median
-65% below peer median
Net Margin
1.3%
vs 0.9% median
+57% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADM ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $36.2B | 16.2x | +1.4% | 1.3% | Hold | +0.2% |
BG BG Bunge Global S.A. | $21.8B | 12.1x | +10.5% | 0.9% | Buy | +18.7% |
ING INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $6.2B | 9.1x | +1.0% | 10.1% | Hold | +19.5% |
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $19.7B | 13.7x | +4.0% | 0.8% | Buy | +34.3% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.3B | 7.8x | +0.4% | 0.1% | Hold | +15.2% |
CAL CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $3.7B | 9.8x | +9.0% | 27.4% | Hold | +15.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADM Dividend and Capital Return
ADM returns 2.7% total yield, led by a 2.72% dividend, raised 28 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.72%
Payout Ratio
91.6%
How ADM Splits Its Return
Div 2.72%
Dividend 2.72%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
28Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
482M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +11.1% | 9.3% | 13.3% |
| 2023 | $1.80 | +12.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +8.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsADM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +0.2% from the current price of $75. The bear case scenario is $90 and the bull case is $189.
02What is the ADM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADM is $75 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+26.5% from today), and the low-end target is $58 (-22.8%). The base case model target is $143.
03Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADM trades at 16.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADM in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Violations — ADM and former executives were charged by the SEC for materially inflating the performance of its Nutrition segment, misleading investors. (2) Financial Misconduct — ADM was fined $40M in a price-fixing probe, indicating historical issues with corporate governance and compliance. (3) Margin Pressure — Morgan Stanley cited weakening margins in ADM's Carbohydrate Solutions unit and repeated cuts to its 2025 profit outlook. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADM will report consensus revenue of $81.7B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.26 (+45.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $84.2B in revenue.
06When does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) report its next earnings?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $1.41 and revenue of $22.8B. Over recent quarters, ADM has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generate?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.0%. ADM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).