Upside case
Bull case
$267+237.5%
ADM would need investors to value it at roughly 64x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
36
analysts
12 bullish · 3 bearish · 36 covering ADM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
-24.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$70 – $267
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $38.1B
ADM price targets
Three scenarios for where ADM stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$70
Base
$105
Bull
$267
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$105+33.2%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$70-11.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ADM down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
ADM · NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsDecember year-end
Archer-Daniels-Midland is a global agricultural processor and commodity trader that transforms crops like oilseeds, corn, and wheat into food ingredients, animal feed, and industrial products. It makes money through three main segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (~60% of revenue), Carbohydrate Solutions (~25%), and Nutrition (~15%), with profits coming from processing margins, trading spreads, and value-added ingredient sales. The company's key advantage is its massive global logistics network—including storage, transportation, and processing facilities—that creates significant economies of scale and market access.
Market Cap
$38.1B
Revenue TTM
$80.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
1.3%
ADM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
0%Mixed
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.93/$0.82
Revenue
$21.2B/$22.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.85
Revenue
$20.4B/$20.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.80
Revenue
$18.6B/$21.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.64
Revenue
$20.5B/$21.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.93/$0.82 | +13.8% | $21.2B/$22.0B | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.92/$0.85 | +8.4% | $20.4B/$20.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.87/$0.80 | +9.2% | $18.6B/$21.1B | -11.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.71/$0.64 | +10.8% | $20.5B/$21.4B | -4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$78.6B
-2.1% YoY
FY2
$75.9B
-3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.80
+25.9% YoY
FY2
$2.97
+5.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.8B
FCF Margin: 5.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ADM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ADM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $79.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ag Services and Oilseeds
77.1%
-7.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
38.8%
-7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ag Services and Oilseeds is the largest disclosed segment at 77.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 38.8%, down 7.1% YoY.
ADM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $59 — implies -21.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADM
35.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+41% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
ADM
35.5x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+86% premium
vs ADM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.5x
vs
5Y Average
15.4x
+130% premium
Forward PE
19.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-0%
Consumer Defensive
15.0x
+27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+41%
Consumer Defensive
19.1x
+86%
5Y Avg
15.4x
+130%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.87x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+15%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+52%
5Y Avg
11.5x
+52%
Price/FCF
9.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-57%
Consumer Defensive
14.9x
-39%
5Y Avg
14.3x
-36%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-85%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-42%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+18%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
S&P 500
1.87%
+38%
Consumer Defensive
2.79%
-8%
5Y Avg
2.78%
-7%
| Metric | ADM | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg ADM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.0x | 19.1x | 15.0x+27% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.5x | 25.1x+41% | 19.1x+86% | 15.4x+130% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.87x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.5x | 15.2x+15% | 11.5x+52% | 11.5x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 9.1x | 21.1x-57% | 14.9x-39% | 14.3x-36% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-85% | 0.8x-42% | 0.4x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.58% | 1.87% | 2.79% | 2.78% |
ADM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ADM returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$80.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
5.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
1.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
91.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
482M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Downturn Impact
Economic downturns and volatile market conditions can reduce demand for agricultural commodities and food products, directly affecting ADM's operating results. A prolonged global slowdown could compress sales volumes and margin pressure. The company’s long‑term strategy is sensitive to macro‑economic cycles.
High Risk
Geopolitical Supply Disruption
Conflicts such as the Black Sea war threaten wheat and corn supplies, creating price volatility and margin erosion. Sanctions and geopolitical tensions can disrupt trade flows and increase regulatory uncertainty. These events can materially impact ADM’s revenue and cost structure.
High Risk
Commodity Price Fluctuation
Prices and availability of agricultural commodities that ADM procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises are subject to wide fluctuations beyond the company’s control. Sudden price swings can erode crush margins and increase hedging costs. This volatility directly affects profitability.
High Risk
Weather‑Induced Supply Shock
Adverse weather, crop diseases, floods, and storms can reduce crop yields and disrupt supply chains. Such events can lead to higher input costs and lower product availability, squeezing margins. The company’s exposure to climate risk is significant.
High Risk
Global Supply Chain Risk
Health epidemics, pandemics, and labor shortages can impair ADM’s logistics and operational efficiency. Disruptions in transportation or warehousing can delay deliveries and increase costs. The company’s global network is vulnerable to such shocks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Dividend
ADM has a long history of paying and increasing its dividend, providing investors with a reliable income stream and potential inflation protection. The company’s consistent dividend growth underscores its commitment to shareholder returns.
Strategic Importance in Food Supply Chain
ADM connects farms to consumers by processing raw agricultural commodities into essential ingredients, playing a crucial role in the global food supply chain. Its integrated business model across various sectors helps mitigate risks associated with agricultural volatility.
Innovation and Sustainability Focus
ADM is investing in regenerative agriculture and bio‑based solutions, positioning itself as a leader in sustainable food production. These initiatives are seen as core drivers of its future growth strategy.
Extensive Global Operations
The company operates an extensive network of processing facilities, storage, and transportation infrastructure worldwide, enabling it to respond effectively to market shifts and maintain supply chain resilience.
Cost Savings and Productivity Improvements
ADM is actively pursuing cost savings and productivity improvements to offset challenging market conditions, enhancing operational efficiency and supporting margin resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.17
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$46.81
+69.1% from the low
52-Week High
$81.75
-3.2% from the high
1 Month
+7.88%
3 Month
+20.99%
YTD
+34.1%
1 Year
+66.7%
3Y CAGR
+1.4%
5Y CAGR
+3.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.0x
vs 9.5x median
+99% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.1%
vs +2.2% median
-196% below peer median
Net Margin
1.3%
vs 0.9% median
+57% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADM ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $38.1B | 19.0x | -2.1% | 1.3% | Hold | -24.2% |
BG BG Bunge Global S.A. | $25.3B | 15.1x | +18.3% | 0.9% | Buy | +2.5% |
ING INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $6.8B | 9.5x | -1.1% | 10.1% | Hold | +16.0% |
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $24.4B | 17.6x | +2.2% | 0.8% | Buy | +2.6% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.7B | 8.2x | +0.7% | 0.1% | Hold | +25.4% |
CAL CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $3.7B | 9.5x | +38.2% | 27.4% | Hold | +10.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADM Dividend and Capital Return
ADM returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 2.58% dividend, raised 31 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.58%
Payout Ratio
91.6%
How ADM Splits Its Return
Div 2.58%
Dividend 2.58%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
31Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
482M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +11.1% | 9.3% | 13.3% |
| 2023 | $1.80 | +12.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | +8.1% | 2.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsADM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying -24.2% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $70 and the bull case is $267.
02What is the ADM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADM is $60 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $68 (-14.1% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-36.8%). The base case model target is $105.
03Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADM trades at 19.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADM in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Downturn Impact — Economic downturns and volatile market conditions can reduce demand for agricultural commodities and food products, directly affecting ADM's operating results. (2) Geopolitical Supply Disruption — Conflicts such as the Black Sea war threaten wheat and corn supplies, creating price volatility and margin erosion. (3) Commodity Price Fluctuation — Prices and availability of agricultural commodities that ADM procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises are subject to wide fluctuations beyond the company’s control. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADM will report consensus revenue of $78.6B (-2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.80 (+25.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $75.9B in revenue.
06When does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ADM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Archer-Daniels-Midland Company generate?
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) generated $4.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.9%. ADM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).