Upside case
Bull case
$480+280.8%
BG would need investors to value it at roughly 56x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Bunge Global S.A. (BG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
21 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering BG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$134
+6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $480
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.5B
BG price targets
Three scenarios for where BG stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Base
$184
Bull
$480
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$184+46.3%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Bunge Global S.A.
BG · NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsDecember year-end
Bunge Global is a global agribusiness and food company that processes and trades agricultural commodities like soybeans, grains, and vegetable oils. It makes money primarily through its Agribusiness segment — which handles commodity trading, processing, and logistics — and its Refined and Specialty Oils segment that sells packaged oils and fats to food manufacturers and retailers. The company's key advantage is its integrated global supply chain network that connects farmers to end markets, providing scale and logistical efficiency in a capital-intensive industry.
Market Cap
$24.5B
Revenue TTM
$80.5B
Net Income TTM
$686M
Net Margin
0.9%
BG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.31/$1.09
Revenue
$12.8B/$12.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.27/$1.94
Revenue
$22.2B/$14.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.99/$1.81
Revenue
$23.8B/$22.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.83/$0.97
Revenue
$21.9B/$23.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.31/$1.09 | +20.2% | $12.8B/$12.2B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.27/$1.94 | +17.0% | $22.2B/$14.7B | +50.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.99/$1.81 | +9.9% | $23.8B/$22.6B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.83/$0.97 | +88.7% | $21.9B/$23.4B | -6.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$95.3B
+18.3% YoY
FY2
$111.2B
+16.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.68
+62.2% YoY
FY2
$7.20
+26.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$112M
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Milling Products
99.8%
-0.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment Geographical Groups Of Countries Group Three
43.3%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Milling Products is the largest disclosed segment at 99.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.6% YoY.
Segment Geographical Groups Of Countries Group Three is the largest reported region at 43.3%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
BG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $73 — implies -41.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BG
25.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BG
25.6x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+30% premium
vs BG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.6x
vs
5Y Average
10.2x
+151% premium
Forward PE
14.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-23%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+30%
5Y Avg
10.2x
+151%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+50%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+100%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+155%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
—
5Y Avg
14.0x
—
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-89%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-59%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+52%
Dividend Yield
2.19%
S&P 500
1.88%
+17%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
-20%
5Y Avg
2.67%
-18%
| Metric | BG | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.6x | 19.1x-23% | 14.6x | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.6x | 25.2x | 19.6x+30% | 10.2x+151% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8x | 15.3x+50% | 11.4x+100% | 9.0x+155% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.7x | 14.0x |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-89% | 0.8x-59% | 0.2x+52% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.19% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 2.67% |
BG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBG Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
BG returns 4.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$80.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+56.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
5.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$112M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
141.2× FCF
~141.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.4%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
2.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$551M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.76
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
56.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
194M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Leverage and Debt
Bunge (BG) has a significant debt load, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio reported as high as 5.7x, considerably higher than management's claims of 1.9x. This excessive leverage exposes the company to greater market volatility and financial strain.
High Risk
Capital Deficit and Cash Flow Issues
Bunge has experienced a cash flow deficit of $1.6 billion after capital expenditures and investments, indicating potential issues with financial health and future shareholder returns. The company is also noted as not being cash flow generative, with a negative Free Cash Flow/Revenue (LTM) of -1.2%.
High Risk
Acquisition Underperformance
The recent $10.6 billion acquisition of Viterra is under scrutiny, with concerns that it has not delivered expected synergies. Bunge's 2025 EBITDA projections for Viterra missed by 24%, and Viterra's revenue declined approximately 16.7%.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Bunge's valuation metrics suggest it may be overvalued, with a P/E ratio close to its 5-year high and a P/S ratio near a 10-year high. Some analyses suggest the fair price of Bunge Global SA (BG) is between $83.89 to $106.80, making it overvalued at current prices.
Medium
Geopolitical Instability and Trade Flows
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is causing disrupted global trade flows, logistics costs, and supply chains. This directly impacts Bunge's Grain Merchandising segment through ocean freight dynamics and increased bunker fuel costs.
Medium
Commodity Price Volatility
While BG Group historically mitigated commodity price exposure through long-term contracts and hedging, changes in oil and gas prices could still impact operating profit. Current market conditions, including significant spikes in bunker fuel costs, highlight this vulnerability.
Lower
Execution Risks
The massive Viterra merger presents significant financial and operational execution risks that could affect Bunge's performance.
Lower
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Bunge's ROIC of 3.8% is less than its weighted average cost of capital, suggesting potential inefficiencies in capital utilization.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Viterra Merger Integration
The completion of the Viterra merger in July 2025 is a significant driver for the bull case. This integration is expected to create a larger, more diversified agribusiness with enhanced origination, processing, and trading capabilities.
Synergy Capture and Growth Potential
Bunge has raised its synergy expectations from the Viterra merger, indicating confidence in its ability to achieve cost savings and revenue enhancements. The company has outlined a strategic growth plan, targeting at least $15 of EPS by 2030.
Analyst Optimism and Upgraded Ratings
Analysts generally hold a positive view on BG stock, with a consensus 'Buy' rating. Several analysts have raised their price targets, indicating meaningful upside from current levels.
Strong Financial Performance and Guidance
Bunge recently reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) beat for Q1 2026, exceeding expectations by over 100%. The company also raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, bolstering investor confidence.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation
Bunge has committed to returning at least 50% of discretionary cash flow to shareholders and has approved a new $3 billion share repurchase plan. This focus on capital returns is attractive to investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$126.05
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$71.60
+76.0% from the low
52-Week High
$133.93
-5.9% from the high
1 Month
-1.88%
3 Month
+8.80%
YTD
+36.1%
1 Year
+61.3%
3Y CAGR
+11.8%
5Y CAGR
+7.2%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.6x
vs 16.1x median
-9% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.3%
vs +0.2% median
+9616% above peer median
Net Margin
0.9%
vs 10.1% median
-92% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BG BG Bunge Global S.A. | $24.5B | 14.6x | +18.3% | 0.9% | Buy | +6.0% |
ADM ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland Company | $37.6B | 18.7x | -2.2% | 1.3% | Hold | -23.1% |
ING INGR Ingredion Incorporated | $6.7B | 9.5x | -1.1% | 10.1% | Hold | +16.8% |
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $18.4B | 8.5x | +0.2% | 23.7% | Buy | -9.1% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.5B | 16.1x | +3.3% | 10.5% | Hold | +32.6% |
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $24.2B | 17.5x | +2.2% | 0.8% | Buy | +3.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BG Dividend and Capital Return
BG returns 4.3% annually — 2.11% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
2.11%
Payout Ratio
56.0%
How BG Splits Its Return
Div 2.11%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 2.11%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.76
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
6.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
8 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$551M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
194M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $0.72 | -74.8% | — | — |
| 2026 | $2.86 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.78 | +2.9% | 3.7% | 6.8% |
| 2024 | $2.70 | +5.0% | 10.0% | 13.4% |
| 2023 | $2.58 | +12.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Bunge Global S.A. (BG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Bunge Global S.A. (BG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $134, implying +6.0% from the current price of $126.
02What is the BG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BG is $134 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+19.0% from today), and the low-end target is $117 (-7.2%). The base case model target is $184.
03Is Bunge Global S.A. (BG) stock overvalued in 2026?
BG trades at 14.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Bunge Global S.A. (BG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BG in 2026 are: (1) High Leverage and Debt — Bunge (BG) has a significant debt load, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio reported as high as 5. (2) Capital Deficit and Cash Flow Issues — Bunge has experienced a cash flow deficit of $1. (3) Acquisition Underperformance — The recent $10. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Bunge Global S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BG will report consensus revenue of $95.3B (+18.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.68 (+62.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $111.2B in revenue.
06When does Bunge Global S.A. (BG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Bunge Global S.A. generate?
Bunge Global S.A. (BG) generated $112M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. BG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($551M TTM).