Upside case
Bull case
$692+916.2%
TSN would need investors to value it at roughly 178x earnings — about 160x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 30 covering TSN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$70
+3.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $692
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.2B
TSN price targets
Three scenarios for where TSN stock could go
Current
~$68
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $68
Base
$109
Bull
$692
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$109+60.1%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tyson Foods, Inc.
TSN · NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsSeptember year-end
Tyson Foods is one of the world's largest meat protein producers and food manufacturers. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Beef (~37% of sales), Chicken (~30%), Prepared Foods (~19%), and Pork (~14%), selling products under brands like Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, and Tyson. The company's scale and vertical integration—controlling everything from animal genetics to processing and branded consumer products—create significant cost advantages and supply chain control.
Market Cap
$24.2B
Revenue TTM
$55.7B
Net Income TTM
$453M
Net Margin
0.8%
TSN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.80
Revenue
$13.9B/$13.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$0.84
Revenue
$13.9B/$14.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.97/$1.01
Revenue
$14.3B/$14.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.76
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.80 | +13.5% | $13.9B/$13.5B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$0.84 | +36.9% | $13.9B/$14.1B | -1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.97/$1.01 | -4.0% | $14.3B/$14.0B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.87/$0.76 | +14.5% | $13.7B/$13.6B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$56.9B
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$58.1B
+2.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.04
+59.3% YoY
FY2
$2.18
+6.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TSN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TSN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $56.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Beef
38.3%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Beef is the largest disclosed segment at 38.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
TSN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $43 — implies -31.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSN
50.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+98% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
TSN
50.1x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+155% premium
vs TSN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
50.1x
vs
5Y Average
20.8x
+141% premium
Forward PE
17.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-8%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+20%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
50.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+98%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+155%
5Y Avg
20.8x
+141%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-25%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
-1%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-6%
Price/FCF
20.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-3%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+31%
5Y Avg
17.9x
+15%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-86%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
-47%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+4%
Dividend Yield
2.94%
S&P 500
1.88%
+57%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+8%
5Y Avg
3.12%
-6%
| Metric | TSN | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg TSN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.5x | 19.1x | 14.6x+20% | — |
| Trailing PE | 50.1x | 25.2x+98% | 19.6x+155% | 20.8x+141% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.3x-25% | 11.4x | 12.0x |
| Price/FCF | 20.6x | 21.3x | 15.7x+31% | 17.9x+15% |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-86% | 0.8x-47% | 0.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.94% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 3.12% |
TSN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TSN returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$55.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
6.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.28
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$196M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
147.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
356M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTSN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic and Political Environment
Deteriorating economic conditions can negatively affect Tyson's business, making financing more difficult and costly. Rising living costs may impact consumer spending on protein products, reducing global demand.
High Risk
Production and Commodity Costs
Tyson's profitability is highly sensitive to commodity cycles, including feed, grain, and livestock prices. Volatility in these costs directly impacts gross margins, and outbreaks of viruses like avian flu can disrupt supply chains.
High Risk
Financial and Corporate Risks
Operating on thin margins, Tyson's gross margin has averaged around 7.1% over the last two years, indicating limited pricing power. The company's net profit margin has been volatile, with a recent TTM margin of 1.5%, below industry peers.
Medium
Sales Volumes and Demand
While Tyson's quarterly sales volumes have remained stable, there are indications of softening demand for its products. The company's offerings are easily substituted, leading to intense competition.
Medium
Operational and Execution Risks
Management faces challenges in balancing pricing, promotions, and costs in a competitive environment. Plant closures and production balancing can create operational risks that may affect performance.
Lower
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Tyson faces various legal and regulatory risks that could impact its operations. Compliance with changing regulations may require additional resources and could lead to unforeseen liabilities.
Lower
Competition
Tyson faces competition from peers with stronger financials, which may limit its market share and pricing power. This competitive landscape could pressure margins and overall profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Performance in Key Segments
The chicken segment has shown consistent year-over-year volume gains for five consecutive quarters, with projected operating income between $1.65 billion and $1.90 billion for fiscal 2026. The prepared foods segment is also performing well, with sales growth and projected adjusted operating income between $1.25 billion and $1.35 billion for fiscal 2026.
Operational Improvements and Efficiency
Tyson is actively reshaping its plant footprint and focusing on operational discipline. The company has achieved fill rates exceeding 98% for consecutive quarters and demonstrated robust double-digit growth in the foodservice sector.
Potential for Margin Recovery
While the beef segment faces challenges, bulls believe these losses can eventually reverse as the industry normalizes and Tyson reduces its exposure to this area. The company's ability to improve throughput, product mix, and cost execution can drive results even without a heroic macroeconomic backdrop.
Analyst Upgrades and Positive Sentiment
Several analysts have recently upgraded their ratings on TSN, with Piper Sandler moving to 'Overweight' and Mizuho initiating coverage with an 'Outperform' rating. A significant portion of analysts recommend 'Buy,' indicating positive sentiment towards the stock.
Revenue Growth
Tyson Foods has demonstrated revenue growth, with a 5.1% increase year-over-year in the most recent quarter and a projected sales growth of 2% to 4% for fiscal 2026.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$68.09
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$50.56
+34.7% from the low
52-Week High
$69.48
-2.0% from the high
1 Month
+5.57%
3 Month
+4.34%
YTD
+17.3%
1 Year
+22.1%
3Y CAGR
+10.3%
5Y CAGR
-2.8%
10Y CAGR
+0.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.5x
vs 11.3x median
+54% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
vs +3.6% median
-40% below peer median
Net Margin
0.8%
vs 4.0% median
-80% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $24.2B | 17.5x | +2.2% | 0.8% | Buy | +3.2% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.4B | 14.1x | +1.4% | 4.0% | Hold | +31.6% |
PPC PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $7.4B | 8.3x | +3.6% | 4.8% | Hold | +47.0% |
CAL CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $3.6B | 9.4x | +38.2% | 27.4% | Hold | +11.8% |
POS POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | 14.0x | +5.6% | 3.8% | Buy | +15.2% |
KHC KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | $27.3B | 11.3x | -2.1% | -23.0% | Hold | +1.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TSN Dividend and Capital Return
TSN returns 3.8% total yield, led by a 2.94% dividend, raised 13 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
2.94%
Payout Ratio
1.5%
How TSN Splits Its Return
Div 2.94%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 2.94%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
3.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$196M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
356M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.01 | +2.0% | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.97 | +2.1% | 0.2% | 3.4% |
| 2023 | $1.93 | +3.8% | 2.0% | 5.7% |
| 2022 | $1.86 | +3.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTSN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $70, implying +3.2% from the current price of $68.
02What is the TSN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSN is $70 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $78 (+14.6% from today), and the low-end target is $61 (-10.4%). The base case model target is $109.
03Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSN trades at 17.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSN in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic and Political Environment — Deteriorating economic conditions can negatively affect Tyson's business, making financing more difficult and costly. (2) Production and Commodity Costs — Tyson's profitability is highly sensitive to commodity cycles, including feed, grain, and livestock prices. (3) Financial and Corporate Risks — Operating on thin margins, Tyson's gross margin has averaged around 7. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSN will report consensus revenue of $56.9B (+2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.04 (+59.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $58.1B in revenue.
06When does Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TSN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tyson Foods, Inc. generate?
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. TSN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($196M TTM).