Upside case
Bull case
$109+96.0%
TSN would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
30
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 30 covering TSN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$75
+34.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$52 – $109
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.7B
TSN price targets
Three scenarios for where TSN stock could go
Current
~$55
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $55
Bear
$52
Base
$82
Bull
$109
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$82+48.7%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$52-6.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push TSN down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tyson Foods, Inc.
TSN · NYSEConsumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm ProductsSeptember year-end
Tyson Foods is one of the world's largest meat protein producers and food manufacturers. It generates revenue primarily through four segments: Beef (~37% of sales), Chicken (~30%), Prepared Foods (~19%), and Pork (~14%), selling products under brands like Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, and Tyson. The company's scale and vertical integration—controlling everything from animal genetics to processing and branded consumer products—create significant cost advantages and supply chain control.
Market Cap
$19.7B
Revenue TTM
$55.7B
Net Income TTM
$453M
Net Margin
0.8%
TSN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+23.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.80
Revenue
$13.9B/$13.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.15/$0.84
Revenue
$13.9B/$14.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.97/$1.01
Revenue
$14.3B/$14.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.78
Revenue
$13.7B/$13.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.80 | +13.5% | $13.9B/$13.5B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.15/$0.84 | +36.9% | $13.9B/$14.1B | -1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.97/$1.01 | -4.0% | $14.3B/$14.0B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.87/$0.78 | +11.5% | $13.7B/$13.6B | +0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$57.9B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$59.3B
+2.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.82
+42.4% YoY
FY2
$1.95
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 2.2%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.05
Expected Revenue
$14.2B
TSN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TSN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $56.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Beef
38.3%
+5.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Beef is the largest disclosed segment at 38.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.6% YoY.
TSN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $26 — implies -53.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
53.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSN
40.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+67% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
TSN
40.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+116% premium
vs TSN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
40.8x
vs
5Y Average
20.8x
+96% premium
Forward PE
13.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-27%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
40.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+67%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+116%
5Y Avg
20.8x
+96%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-36%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
-12%
5Y Avg
12.0x
-19%
Price/FCF
16.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-19%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+10%
5Y Avg
17.9x
-6%
Price/Sales
0.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-88%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
-59%
5Y Avg
0.4x
-15%
Dividend Yield
3.61%
S&P 500
1.91%
+89%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+18%
5Y Avg
3.12%
+16%
| Metric | TSN | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg TSN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.7x | 18.8x-27% | 14.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 40.8x | 24.4x+67% | 18.9x+116% | 20.8x+96% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8x | 15.2x-36% | 11.1x-12% | 12.0x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 16.8x | 20.7x-19% | 15.3x | 17.9x |
| Price/Sales | 0.4x | 3.1x-88% | 0.9x-59% | 0.4x-15% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.61% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 3.12% |
TSN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSN Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TSN returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$55.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
6.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.28
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$196M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.00
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
147.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
356M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTSN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Beef Segment Losses
Continued significant operating losses in the Beef segment are impacting overall financial performance.
Medium
Commodity Cycle Risks
Severe cyclical downturn in core commodity businesses poses challenges to profitability.
Medium
Strategic Pivot Uncertainty
Long-term strategic pivot toward higher-margin businesses carries execution risks.
Lower
Product Recognition
Consumer-voted awards for products like Tyson Grilled Chicken Bites indicate strong brand recognition.
High Risk
Stock Performance
Stock has lost about 10% due to operational and market challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Product innovation recognition
Tyson's Grilled Chicken Bites Cup won Product of the Year in the Protein Snack Category, showcasing consumer appeal and innovation.
Diverse product portfolio
Tyson offers a wide range of products from fresh meat to prepared foods, catering to various market segments.
Strong brand presence
Tyson is a well-known brand in the food industry, with a reputation for quality and variety.
Career development opportunities
Tyson provides opportunities for career growth, attracting talent and fostering employee retention.
Global market position
As the world's second-largest processor, Tyson has a significant presence in the global food industry.
Consumer defensive sector
Operating in the consumer defensive sector, Tyson benefits from stable demand for essential food products.
Investment thesis support
Detailed investment analysis and bullish scenarios highlight Tyson's potential for growth and value creation.
Financial transparency
Regular SEC filings provide insights into Tyson's financial health and corporate activities, aiding investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$55.46
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$50.56
+9.7% from the low
52-Week High
$69.48
-20.2% from the high
1 Month
-16.83%
3 Month
-9.41%
YTD
-4.4%
1 Year
+2.1%
3Y CAGR
+3.6%
5Y CAGR
-5.3%
10Y CAGR
-1.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.7x
vs 11.1x median
+23% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +5.4% median
-27% below peer median
Net Margin
0.8%
vs 4.0% median
-80% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSN TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. | $19.7B | 13.7x | +4.0% | 0.8% | Buy | +34.3% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $13.3B | 16.3x | +2.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -2.7% |
PPC PPC Pilgrim's Pride Corporation | $6.5B | 8.1x | +5.4% | 4.8% | Hold | +36.6% |
CAL CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. | $3.7B | 9.8x | +9.0% | 27.4% | Hold | +15.8% |
POS POST Post Holdings, Inc. | $4.0B | 11.5x | +7.9% | 4.0% | Buy | +29.5% |
KHC KHC The Kraft Heinz Company | $27.1B | 11.1x | 0.0% | -23.0% | Hold | -1.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TSN Dividend and Capital Return
TSN returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 3.61% dividend, raised 13 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
3.61%
Payout Ratio
1.5%
How TSN Splits Its Return
Div 3.61%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 3.61%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.6%
5Y Div CAGR
3.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$196M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
356M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.53 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.01 | +2.0% | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.97 | +2.1% | 0.2% | 3.4% |
| 2023 | $1.93 | +3.8% | 2.0% | 5.7% |
| 2022 | $1.86 | +3.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTSN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $75, implying +34.3% from the current price of $55. The bear case scenario is $52 and the bull case is $109.
02What is the TSN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSN is $75 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $78 (+40.6% from today), and the low-end target is $69 (+24.4%). The base case model target is $82.
03Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSN trades at 13.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSN in 2026 are: (1) Beef Segment Losses — Continued significant operating losses in the Beef segment are impacting overall financial performance. (2) Stock Performance — Stock has lost about 10% due to operational and market challenges. (3) Commodity Cycle Risks — Severe cyclical downturn in core commodity businesses poses challenges to profitability. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSN will report consensus revenue of $57.9B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.82 (+42.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $59.3B in revenue.
06When does Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) report its next earnings?
Tyson Foods, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $1.05 and revenue of $14.2B. Over recent quarters, TSN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tyson Foods, Inc. generate?
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.2%. TSN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($196M TTM).