Upside case
Bull case
$145+32.3%
AEE would need investors to value it at roughly 27x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Ameren Corporation (AEE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering AEE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$121
+10.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$75 – $145
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.3B
AEE price targets
Three scenarios for where AEE stock could go
Current
~$110
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $110
Bear
$75
Base
$125
Bull
$145
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$125+14.4%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$75-31.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push AEE down roughly 32% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ameren Corporation
AEE · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Ameren is a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving customers in Missouri and Illinois through rate-regulated generation, transmission, and distribution operations. It earns revenue primarily from regulated electric service (roughly 80% of total) and natural gas distribution, with rates set by state commissions that allow recovery of costs plus a reasonable return. Its key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service territories, providing stable cash flows through cost-of-service ratemaking.
Market Cap
$30.3B
Revenue TTM
$8.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
17.2%
AEE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.01/$0.99
Revenue
$2.2B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.17/$2.11
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.78/$0.77
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.17
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.01/$0.99 | +2.3% | $2.2B/$1.8B | +24.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.17/$2.11 | +2.8% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.78/$0.77 | +1.2% | $1.8B/$1.6B | +11.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.28/$1.17 | +9.4% | $2.2B/$2.2B | -3.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.5B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$10.3B
+7.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.74
+4.9% YoY
FY2
$6.12
+6.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.3B
FCF Margin: -14.7%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.17
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
AEE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AEE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electricity
87.1%
+17.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electricity is the largest disclosed segment at 87.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 17.2% YoY.
AEE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $111 — implies -2.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AEE
20.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
19% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
AEE
20.5x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
In line with benchmark
vs AEE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.0x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
20.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+7%
Utilities
17.2x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-19%
Utilities
19.7x
+4%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+2%
PEG Ratio
2.31x
S&P 500
1.75x
+32%
Utilities
1.73x
+34%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-11%
Utilities
11.5x
+18%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+5%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+10%
Utilities
2.2x
+58%
5Y Avg
3.0x
+13%
Dividend Yield
2.57%
S&P 500
1.88%
+37%
Utilities
3.07%
-16%
5Y Avg
2.88%
-11%
| Metric | AEE | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg AEE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.4x | 19.1x | 17.2x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.5x | 25.2x-19% | 19.7x | 20.0x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.31x | 1.75x+32% | 1.73x+34% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6x | 15.3x-11% | 11.5x+18% | 13.0x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.4x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.2x+58% | 3.0x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.57% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 2.88% |
AEE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAEE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AEE earns 24.0% operating margin on regulated earnings, 2.6% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.47
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
24.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
2.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
52.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
277M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageAEE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
Ameren faces increasing cyberattack risk that could disrupt operational control and compromise sensitive data. A successful breach could halt power distribution, trigger regulatory penalties, and erode customer trust. Robust cybersecurity measures and contingency planning are essential to mitigate this risk.
High Risk
Regulatory & Environmental Compliance
Ameren operates in a highly regulated environment where changes in emissions, discharge, or energy efficiency standards can raise operating costs or require large capital investments. Failure to adapt could erode profitability and expose the company to fines or forced shutdowns. Continuous monitoring and proactive compliance strategies are critical.
Medium
Valuation & Earnings Pressure
The company trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio relative to the broader market, limiting upside potential. If earnings miss expectations, the stock could decline sharply, reflecting investor skepticism about continued growth. Analysts disagree on whether Ameren is undervalued or overvalued, adding uncertainty.
Medium
Market Dynamics & Competition
New entrants and rapid technological advances threaten Ameren's traditional utility model. Shifts in customer preferences and distributed generation could erode market share and compress margins. The company must invest in innovation and maintain regulatory advantages to stay competitive.
Lower
Economic Condition Sensitivity
Ameren's financial performance is tied to macroeconomic factors such as inflation, recession, and geopolitical events. These can reduce energy demand, increase supplier costs, and limit access to capital, leading to volatility in earnings. Diversification of revenue streams may help mitigate this exposure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AEE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Capital Expenditure Plan
Ameren’s planned capital spend focuses on grid modernization, resilience, and clean‑energy resources. The plan is expected to grow the regulated rate base at a 9.2% CAGR, boosting allowed returns and improving net margins.
Favorable Regulatory Environment
Recent regulatory changes in Missouri have opened significant investment opportunities for Ameren. The company has benefited from new rate approvals and infrastructure‑return incentives that support future earnings.
Robust Retail Sales
Ameren Missouri has shown strong retail sales growth, with a notable increase across all customer classes. This trend supports higher revenue and margin expansion in the regulated business.
Dividend Growth
The company has a track record of raising its quarterly dividend each year, providing a steady income stream for investors and signaling confidence in cash‑flow stability.
Growth Potential from Data Centers
Ameren is early in its growth evolution, with a pipeline of data‑center load that could ramp faster than anticipated. This could drive higher EPS growth as demand for reliable power rises.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AEE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$109.59
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$93.27
+17.5% from the low
52-Week High
$115.58
-5.2% from the high
1 Month
-1.66%
3 Month
+4.28%
YTD
+8.7%
1 Year
+10.2%
3Y CAGR
+7.1%
5Y CAGR
+5.2%
10Y CAGR
+8.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AEE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.4x
vs 19.1x median
+7% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs +5.1% median
+38% above peer median
Net Margin
17.2%
vs 14.0% median
+22% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEE AEE Ameren Corporation | $30.3B | 20.4x | +7.1% | 17.2% | Hold | +10.5% |
WEC WEC WEC Energy Group, Inc. | $37.1B | 20.4x | +5.5% | 16.2% | Hold | +7.8% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
OGE OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $9.9B | 19.6x | +5.1% | 14.0% | Hold | -1.9% |
NWE NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | $4.4B | 18.9x | +5.4% | 10.2% | Hold | -6.7% |
AVA AVA Avista Corporation | $3.3B | 15.8x | +3.4% | 9.8% | Hold | +0.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AEE Dividend and Capital Return
AEE returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 2.57% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.57%
Payout Ratio
52.7%
How AEE Splits Its Return
Div 2.57%
Dividend 2.57%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.4%
5Y Div CAGR
7.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
277M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.84 | +6.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $2.68 | +6.3% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $2.52 | +6.8% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $2.36 | +7.3% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsAEE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ameren Corporation (AEE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ameren Corporation (AEE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $121, implying +10.5% from the current price of $110. The bear case scenario is $75 and the bull case is $145.
02What is the AEE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AEE is $121 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $131 (+19.5% from today), and the low-end target is $116 (+5.8%). The base case model target is $125.
03Is Ameren Corporation (AEE) stock overvalued in 2026?
AEE trades at 20.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ameren Corporation (AEE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AEE in 2026 are: (1) Cybersecurity Threats — Ameren faces increasing cyberattack risk that could disrupt operational control and compromise sensitive data. (2) Regulatory & Environmental Compliance — Ameren operates in a highly regulated environment where changes in emissions, discharge, or energy efficiency standards can raise operating costs or require large capital investments. (3) Valuation & Earnings Pressure — The company trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio relative to the broader market, limiting upside potential. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ameren Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AEE will report consensus revenue of $9.5B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.74 (+4.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.3B in revenue.
06When does Ameren Corporation (AEE) report its next earnings?
Ameren Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.17 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, AEE has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ameren Corporation generate?
Ameren Corporation (AEE) had a free cash outflow of $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.7%. AEE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).