Upside case
Bull case
$88+84.7%
OGE would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
21
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering OGE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
-1.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$33 – $88
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
OGE price targets
Three scenarios for where OGE stock could go
Current
~$48
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $48
Bear
$33
Base
$50
Bull
$88
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$50+4.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing OGE — at roughly 21x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$33-31.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push OGE down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
OGE Energy Corp.
OGE · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
OGE Energy is a regulated electric utility serving customers in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. It makes money primarily through regulated electricity sales to retail customers — about 879,000 in its service territory — with revenue determined by state-approved rates that cover its costs plus a return on invested capital. Its key advantage is its regulated monopoly status in its service area, which provides stable, predictable cash flows through cost recovery mechanisms.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$3.3B
Net Income TTM
$458M
Net Margin
14.0%
OGE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.55
Revenue
$742M/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.14/$1.16
Revenue
$1.0B/$278M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.30
Revenue
$726M/$571M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.24
Revenue
$753M/$616M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.53/$0.55 | -3.6% | $742M/$1.0B | -28.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.14/$1.16 | -1.7% | $1.0B/$278M | +276.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.33/$0.30 | +10.0% | $726M/$571M | +27.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24/$0.24 | +0.0% | $753M/$616M | +22.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$3.6B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.33
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$2.43
+4.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 38.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
OGE beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
OGE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Electric Utility
100.0%
+9.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Electric Utility is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.2% YoY.
OGE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $50 — implies +2.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OGE
20.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
18% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
OGE
20.6x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
In line with benchmark
vs OGE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.6x
vs
5Y Average
15.3x
+35% premium
Forward PE
19.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+3%
Utilities
17.2x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-18%
Utilities
19.7x
+4%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+35%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-25%
Utilities
11.5x
-1%
5Y Avg
11.2x
+2%
Price/FCF
119.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+458%
Utilities
15.4x
+671%
5Y Avg
117.1x
+2%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-4%
Utilities
2.2x
+38%
5Y Avg
2.5x
+21%
Dividend Yield
3.54%
S&P 500
1.88%
+88%
Utilities
3.07%
+15%
5Y Avg
3.42%
+3%
| Metric | OGE | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg OGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.6x | 19.1x | 17.2x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.6x | 25.2x-18% | 19.7x | 15.3x+35% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4x | 15.3x-25% | 11.5x | 11.2x |
| Price/FCF | 119.1x | 21.3x+458% | 15.4x+671% | 117.1x |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.2x+38% | 2.5x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.54% | 1.88% | 3.07% | 3.42% |
OGE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOGE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
OGE earns 23.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 3.5% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.21
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
23.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$200000
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.5× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
72.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
206M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageOGE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Rising leverage and debt
OGE's debt levels are rising significantly, with a high debt-to-equity ratio indicating a reliance on external financing. This situation raises concerns about the company's financial stability and ability to manage its liabilities effectively.
High Risk
Regulatory changes
Changes in regulations in key markets can significantly influence OGE's financial outcomes and limit its operational flexibility. The company's ability to recover investments and operational costs is heavily dependent on regulatory approval of rate cases.
High Risk
Negative free cash flow
OGE has experienced negative free cash flow in recent years due to heavy investment needs. This trend raises concerns about the company's ability to fund operations and pay dividends.
Medium
Weather-related impacts
Extreme weather events can disrupt OGE's operations, leading to outages and increased operational costs. Such disruptions can have a direct impact on the company's performance and customer satisfaction.
Medium
Cybersecurity threats
Cybersecurity threats pose a significant risk to OGE's operational reliability and data security. A successful cyber attack could lead to substantial operational disruptions and financial losses.
Medium
Environmental compliance costs
Future regulations regarding environmental compliance could increase costs for OGE, impacting its financial performance. The transition to a lower-carbon economy presents additional financial risks related to potential regulation and litigation.
Lower
Aging infrastructure
OGE faces challenges in maintaining and upgrading its aging infrastructure, which could lead to operational inefficiencies and increased costs over time. This risk may affect the company's long-term operational performance.
Lower
Supply chain vulnerabilities
Securing essential materials and equipment for construction projects presents challenges for OGE. Supply chain disruptions could delay projects and increase costs, impacting the company's operational efficiency.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OGE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Customer and Load Growth
OGE is experiencing strong customer growth, projected to be around 1% annually, coupled with significant weather-normalized load growth, estimated at 4-6% for 2026. This growth is fueled by strong local economies and increasing electrification trends.
Data Center and Industrial Demand
The company is capitalizing on opportunities with large industrial clients and data centers, including a recent 1 GW contract with a data center customer. This is a significant driver for future revenue and load expansion.
Infrastructure Investments
OGE is making substantial investments in generation and transmission infrastructure. This includes projects like the Frontier Energy Storage Project, new generation at Tinker Air Force Base, and significant transmission assignments, addressing a projected 1.9 gigawatts of capacity needs by 2031.
Regulatory Environment
OGE operates in a regulated utility environment, with performance heavily influenced by regulatory bodies like the Oklahoma Corporation Commission and the Arkansas Public Service Commission. Successful 'rate cases' allow the company to recover costs for infrastructure upgrades and maintain its growth trajectory.
Earnings Growth
OGE reported consolidated earnings of $2.32 per share in 2025, with a 2026 guidance midpoint of $2.43 per share, representing a 7% increase. The company targets long-term EPS growth of 5-7% annually.
Consistent Dividend Policy
OGE has a long history of consistent dividend payments, often exceeding the average yield of the S&P 500. The company has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years and maintained payments for 56 years.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OGE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$47.73
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.70
+14.5% from the low
52-Week High
$50.13
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
-1.81%
3 Month
+8.58%
YTD
+11.3%
1 Year
+5.4%
3Y CAGR
+8.3%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OGE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.6x
vs 18.9x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs +3.4% median
+50% above peer median
Net Margin
14.0%
vs 14.6% median
-4% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OGE OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $9.9B | 19.6x | +5.1% | 14.0% | Hold | -1.9% |
EVR EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $18.6B | 19.1x | +3.4% | 14.6% | Hold | +9.9% |
NWE NWE Northwestern Energy Group Inc | $4.4B | 18.9x | +5.4% | 10.2% | Hold | -6.7% |
AVA AVA Avista Corporation | $3.3B | 15.8x | +3.4% | 9.8% | Hold | +0.2% |
OTT OTTR Otter Tail Corporation | $3.7B | 16.1x | -0.5% | 21.3% | Hold | -8.9% |
IDA IDA IDACORP, Inc. | $8.0B | 22.6x | +3.8% | 18.6% | Buy | +2.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OGE Dividend and Capital Return
OGE returns 3.5% total yield, led by a 3.54% dividend, raised 19 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.54%
Payout Ratio
72.6%
How OGE Splits Its Return
Div 3.54%
Dividend 3.54%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
19Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
1.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
206M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.69 | +0.8% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| 2024 | $1.68 | +0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023 | $1.66 | +1.0% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $1.64 | +1.6% | 0.0% | 4.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsOGE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying -1.9% from the current price of $48. The bear case scenario is $33 and the bull case is $88.
02What is the OGE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OGE is $47 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $49 (+2.7% from today), and the low-end target is $44 (-7.8%). The base case model target is $50.
03Is OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) stock overvalued in 2026?
OGE trades at 19.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OGE in 2026 are: (1) Rising leverage and debt — OGE's debt levels are rising significantly, with a high debt-to-equity ratio indicating a reliance on external financing. (2) Regulatory changes — Changes in regulations in key markets can significantly influence OGE's financial outcomes and limit its operational flexibility. (3) Negative free cash flow — OGE has experienced negative free cash flow in recent years due to heavy investment needs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is OGE Energy Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OGE will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.33 (+5.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.6B in revenue.
06When does OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for OGE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does OGE Energy Corp. generate?
OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.1%. OGE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).