Upside case
Bull case
$352+93.1%
ALGN would need investors to value it at roughly 31x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
24 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 covering ALGN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$204
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$168 – $352
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.0B
ALGN price targets
Three scenarios for where ALGN stock could go
Current
~$182
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $182
Bear
$168
Base
$267
Bull
$352
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$267+46.6%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$168-7.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ALGN down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Align Technology, Inc.
ALGN · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - DevicesDecember year-end
Align Technology is a medical device company that designs and manufactures Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners for dental professionals. It generates revenue primarily from its Clear Aligner segment — about 80% of sales — with the remainder from Scanners and Services including hardware sales, software subscriptions, and support. The company's moat lies in its proprietary digital treatment planning platform and extensive clinical data library that creates switching costs for dental practices.
Market Cap
$13.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.1B
Net Income TTM
$430M
Net Margin
10.5%
ALGN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.49/$2.57
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.61/$2.40
Revenue
$996M/$976M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.29/$2.99
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.26
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.49/$2.57 | -3.1% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.61/$2.40 | +8.8% | $996M/$976M | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.29/$2.99 | +10.0% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58/$2.26 | +14.2% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.4B
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.97
+32.7% YoY
FY2
$8.62
+8.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$717M
FCF Margin: 17.5%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.56
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
ALGN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ALGN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Clear Aligner
80.4%
+0.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
41.2%
-2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Clear Aligner is the largest disclosed segment at 80.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 41.2%, down 2.0% YoY.
ALGN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Premium mostly justified
Fair value est. $167 — implies -8.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALGN
32.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+32% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ALGN
32.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+46% premium
vs ALGN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.2x
vs
5Y Average
45.1x
29% discount
Forward PE
16.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-15%
Healthcare
18.3x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+32%
Healthcare
22.1x
+46%
5Y Avg
45.1x
-29%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-0%
Healthcare
14.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
25.2x
-40%
Price/FCF
26.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+28%
Healthcare
18.5x
+43%
5Y Avg
42.1x
-37%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+5%
Healthcare
2.6x
+23%
5Y Avg
6.0x
-46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALGN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ALGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.0x | 18.8x-15% | 18.3x-13% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.2x | 24.4x+32% | 22.1x+46% | 45.1x-29% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 25.2x-40% |
| Price/FCF | 26.6x | 20.7x+28% | 18.5x+43% | 42.1x-37% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.6x+23% | 6.0x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ALGN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALGN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ALGN generates $717M in free cash flow at a 17.5% margin — 15.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$717M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$965M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$466M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
72M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALGN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Headwinds
Align Technology's stock has declined due to broader macroeconomic challenges impacting demand.
Medium
Geopolitical Uncertainty
Geopolitical risks have contributed to market volatility and weakened investor confidence in ALGN.
Medium
Market Sentiment Shift
Despite strong financial performance, the stock faced a downturn, indicating potential overvaluation concerns.
Lower
Competitive Pressures
While Align has a wide moat, increasing competition in orthodontic solutions could pose long-term risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALGN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Clear aligner leadership
Align Technology's dominant position in the clear aligner market is a key driver of long-term value.
Digital workflow platform
The company's proprietary digital workflow platform enhances efficiency and differentiation in orthodontic treatment.
Strong brand recognition
Invisalign's established brand provides competitive advantages and pricing power in the clear aligner space.
Earnings momentum
Recent earnings performance demonstrates the company's growth trajectory despite market volatility.
Undervaluation opportunity
Multiple compression has created a potential value opportunity for growth-oriented investors.
Wide economic moat
The company possesses durable competitive advantages that protect its market position and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALGN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$182.08
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$122.00
+49.2% from the low
52-Week High
$208.31
-12.6% from the high
1 Month
+14.67%
3 Month
+5.61%
YTD
+16.7%
1 Year
+1.1%
3Y CAGR
-18.1%
5Y CAGR
-21.3%
10Y CAGR
+8.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALGN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.0x
vs 17.2x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.6%
vs +4.3% median
+100% above peer median
Net Margin
10.5%
vs 3.0% median
+248% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALG ALGN Align Technology, Inc. | $13.0B | 16.0x | +8.6% | 10.5% | Buy | +11.8% |
XRA XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. | $2.1B | 7.3x | +3.6% | -17.1% | Hold | +29.0% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 14.9x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.4% |
NVS NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $4.2B | 18.1x | +3.1% | 2.4% | Hold | +9.3% |
IDX IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $44.6B | 38.3x | +9.9% | 24.6% | Buy | +33.0% |
HOL HOLX Hologic, Inc. | $17.0B | 17.2x | +4.3% | 13.2% | Hold | +3.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALGN Dividend and Capital Return
ALGN returns 3.6% annually — null% through dividends and 3.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$466M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
72M
At 3.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsALGN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $204, implying +11.8% from the current price of $182. The bear case scenario is $168 and the bull case is $352.
02What is the ALGN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALGN is $204 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $235 (+29.1% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $267.
03Is Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALGN trades at 16.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals premium mostly justified. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALGN in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Headwinds — Align Technology's stock has declined due to broader macroeconomic challenges impacting demand. (2) Geopolitical Uncertainty — Geopolitical risks have contributed to market volatility and weakened investor confidence in ALGN. (3) Market Sentiment Shift — Despite strong financial performance, the stock faced a downturn, indicating potential overvaluation concerns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Align Technology, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALGN will report consensus revenue of $4.4B (+8.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.97 (+32.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) report its next earnings?
Align Technology, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $2.56 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, ALGN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Align Technology, Inc. generate?
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) generated $717M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.5%. ALGN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($466M TTM).