Upside case
Bull case
$594+241.3%
ALGN would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
24 bullish · 2 bearish · 33 covering ALGN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$204
+17.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$173 – $594
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.5B
ALGN price targets
Three scenarios for where ALGN stock could go
Current
~$174
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $174
Bear
$173
Base
$260
Bull
$594
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$260+49.5%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$173-0.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push ALGN down roughly 0% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Align Technology, Inc.
ALGN · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - DevicesDecember year-end
Align Technology is a medical device company that designs and manufactures Invisalign clear aligners and iTero intraoral scanners for dental professionals. It generates revenue primarily from its Clear Aligner segment — about 80% of sales — with the remainder from Scanners and Services including hardware sales, software subscriptions, and support. The company's moat lies in its proprietary digital treatment planning platform and extensive clinical data library that creates switching costs for dental practices.
Market Cap
$12.5B
Revenue TTM
$4.1B
Net Income TTM
$430M
Net Margin
10.5%
ALGN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.49/$2.57
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.61/$2.40
Revenue
$996M/$976M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.29/$2.99
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.26
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.49/$2.57 | -3.1% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.61/$2.40 | +8.8% | $996M/$976M | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.29/$2.99 | +10.0% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.58/$2.26 | +14.2% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+2.9% YoY
FY2
$4.4B
+3.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.21
+36.8% YoY
FY2
$8.45
+2.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$717M
FCF Margin: 17.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ALGN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ALGN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Clear Aligner
80.4%
+0.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
41.2%
-2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Clear Aligner is the largest disclosed segment at 80.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 41.2%, down 2.0% YoY.
ALGN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $250 — implies +39.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
39.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALGN
30.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+22% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ALGN
30.8x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+39% premium
vs ALGN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.8x
vs
5Y Average
45.1x
32% discount
Forward PE
15.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-20%
Healthcare
19.0x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+22%
Healthcare
22.1x
+39%
5Y Avg
45.1x
-32%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-5%
Healthcare
14.1x
+2%
5Y Avg
25.2x
-43%
Price/FCF
25.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+19%
Healthcare
18.7x
+36%
5Y Avg
42.1x
-40%
Price/Sales
3.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-1%
Healthcare
2.8x
+8%
5Y Avg
6.0x
-48%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALGN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ALGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.3x | 19.1x-20% | 19.0x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.8x | 25.2x+22% | 22.1x+39% | 45.1x-32% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4x | 15.3x | 14.1x | 25.2x-43% |
| Price/FCF | 25.4x | 21.3x+19% | 18.7x+36% | 42.1x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 3.1x | 3.1x | 2.8x | 6.0x-48% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
ALGN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALGN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ALGN generates $717M in free cash flow at a 17.5% margin — 15.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$717M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$965M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$466M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
72M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALGN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Stock Price Volatility
Align Technology Inc. (ALGN) has historically experienced significant stock price volatility, influenced by factors such as quarterly earnings and broader market trends. Rapid fluctuations can lead to substantial financial impacts for investors.
High Risk
Competition
The clear aligner market is facing intensifying competition from both regional brands and traditional orthodontic solutions. This competitive pressure could adversely affect ALGN's pricing strategies and sales volumes.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
ALGN's performance is highly sensitive to consumer confidence and discretionary healthcare spending. Economic downturns can lead to reduced demand for its products, significantly impacting revenue.
Medium
Execution Risk
There is a risk that Align Technology may fail to meet its projected earnings growth targets. Such a failure could result in downward pressure on the stock price, affecting investor confidence.
Medium
Technological Adoption
While ALGN invests in innovative technologies like AI-driven treatment planning tools, their success hinges on adoption rates among dental professionals and patients. Slow adoption could limit revenue growth.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Legal and regulatory challenges can pose significant risks to Align Technology's operations and financial performance. Compliance issues or litigation could lead to increased costs and operational disruptions.
Lower
Production and Supply Chain
Production and supply chain issues can affect companies in the medical device sector, including ALGN. Disruptions in supply chains could lead to delays in product availability and increased operational costs.
Lower
Lack of Dividend
Align Technology does not pay a dividend, focusing instead on reinvesting earnings for growth. This may deter income-focused investors, impacting the stock's appeal in certain market conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALGN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Brand Strength
Align Technology is a pioneer and leader in the orthodontics industry, with its Invisalign brand being widely recognized and trusted. The company has built a strong moat through its proprietary technology, extensive network of trained dental professionals, and a comprehensive digital orthodontic solution suite, including iTero intraoral scanners.
International Expansion Opportunities
Growth is being driven by strong performance in overseas markets, with particular potential seen in Latin America and APAC regions. This international focus is expected to significantly contribute to Align's revenue growth.
Innovative Product Development
Continuous product development, such as ClinCheck Live Plan and upgrades to iTero, aims to enhance efficiency and patient conversion. The company is also focusing on 'zero-refinement' options and direct fabrication to improve its offerings.
Strong Financial Position
Align Technology has a strong balance sheet with a significant net cash position. Despite some recent revenue and earnings misses, overall financials are considered solid by analysts, indicating resilience and stability.
Active Stock Repurchase Program
Align Technology has a substantial stock repurchase program, which can reduce outstanding shares and potentially boost shareholder value. This strategy reflects the company's commitment to returning value to its shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALGN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$173.94
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$122.00
+42.6% from the low
52-Week High
$208.31
-16.5% from the high
1 Month
+1.20%
3 Month
-7.28%
YTD
+11.5%
1 Year
+0.5%
3Y CAGR
-17.2%
5Y CAGR
-21.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALGN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.3x
vs 17.2x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.9%
vs +3.7% median
-23% below peer median
Net Margin
10.5%
vs 3.0% median
+248% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALG ALGN Align Technology, Inc. | $12.5B | 15.3x | +2.9% | 10.5% | Buy | +17.1% |
XRA XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. | $2.2B | 7.8x | -2.2% | -17.1% | Hold | +20.3% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $8.3B | 13.6x | +3.7% | 3.0% | Hold | +19.3% |
NVS NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $4.5B | 19.2x | +6.9% | 2.4% | Hold | -0.2% |
IDX IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $46.1B | 39.9x | +8.1% | 24.6% | Buy | +33.5% |
HOL HOLX Hologic, Inc. | $17.0B | 17.2x | +0.3% | 13.2% | Hold | +3.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALGN Dividend and Capital Return
ALGN returns 3.7% annually — null% through dividends and 3.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$466M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
72M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsALGN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $204, implying +17.1% from the current price of $174. The bear case scenario is $173 and the bull case is $594.
02What is the ALGN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALGN is $204 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $235 (+35.1% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (+6.4%). The base case model target is $260.
03Is Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALGN trades at 15.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALGN in 2026 are: (1) Stock Price Volatility — Align Technology Inc. (2) Competition — The clear aligner market is facing intensifying competition from both regional brands and traditional orthodontic solutions. (3) Economic Downturns — ALGN's performance is highly sensitive to consumer confidence and discretionary healthcare spending. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Align Technology, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALGN will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+2.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.21 (+36.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.4B in revenue.
06When does Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ALGN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Align Technology, Inc. generate?
Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN) generated $717M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.5%. ALGN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($466M TTM).