Upside case
Bull case
$255+235.4%
HOLX would need investors to value it at roughly 58x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
42
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 42 covering HOLX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$79
+3.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $255
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.0B
HOLX price targets
Three scenarios for where HOLX stock could go
Current
~$76
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $76
Base
$103
Bull
$255
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$103+35.1%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hologic, Inc.
HOLX · NASDAQHealthcareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSeptember year-end
Hologic is a medical technology company focused on women's health through diagnostic tests, imaging systems, and surgical products. It generates revenue primarily from its Diagnostics segment (roughly 50% of sales) and Breast Health segment (about 40%), with the remainder from GYN Surgical and Skeletal Health. The company's moat lies in its integrated ecosystem of women's health technologies—particularly its market-leading 3D mammography systems and molecular diagnostics platforms—which create switching costs for healthcare providers.
Market Cap
$17.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.1B
Net Income TTM
$544M
Net Margin
13.2%
HOLX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.02
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.08/$1.05
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.13/$1.10
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.04/$1.09
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.03/$1.02 | +1.0% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.08/$1.05 | +2.9% | $1.0B/$1.0B | -1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.13/$1.10 | +2.7% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.04/$1.09 | -4.6% | $1.0B/$1.1B | -2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.1B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$4.2B
+0.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.22
+33.9% YoY
FY2
$3.36
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1000M
FCF Margin: 24.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.09
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
HOLX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HOLX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Diagnostics
44.6%
+2.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
70.8%
+10.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Diagnostics is the largest disclosed segment at 44.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.5% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 70.8%, up 10.9% YoY.
HOLX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $90 — implies +18.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HOLX
30.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+21% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HOLX
30.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+38% premium
vs HOLX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.5x
vs
5Y Average
22.5x
+36% premium
Forward PE
17.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-10%
Healthcare
19.0x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+21%
Healthcare
22.1x
+38%
5Y Avg
22.5x
+36%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+14%
Healthcare
14.1x
+23%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+33%
Price/FCF
18.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-14%
Healthcare
18.7x
-1%
5Y Avg
14.0x
+32%
Price/Sales
4.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+32%
Healthcare
2.8x
+45%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+6%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | HOLX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HOLX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.2x | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.5x | 25.2x+21% | 22.1x+38% | 22.5x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4x | 15.3x+14% | 14.1x+23% | 13.1x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 18.4x | 21.3x-14% | 18.7x | 14.0x+32% |
| Price/Sales | 4.1x | 3.1x+32% | 2.8x+45% | 3.9x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
HOLX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHOLX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HOLX generates $1000M in free cash flow at a 24.2% margin — returns 4.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.41
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1000M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
24.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$667M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.7× FCF
~0.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$753M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
228M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHOLX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Performance Concerns
Hologic faces significant risks due to slowing revenue growth, particularly in the Diagnostics and Breast Health segments. The company's reliance on a strong fourth-quarter rebound to meet fiscal year 2025 targets poses a risk if this recovery does not materialize, potentially eroding investor confidence.
High Risk
Merger and Acquisition Risks
The acquisition by Blackstone and TPG introduces integration risks that could disrupt ongoing business operations and lead to potential litigation. Post-buyout, Hologic will carry heavy leverage, which poses a high risk during a period of declining fundamentals.
Medium
Market and Competitive Pressures
Weakness in the global economy and increased competition are adversely affecting Hologic's performance. The loss of the HIV testing business in Africa and challenges in China are impacting results, alongside persistent tariff-related issues expected to continue into fiscal year 2026.
Medium
Operational and Regulatory Risks
Supply chain shortages, particularly for semiconductor chips, can hinder Hologic's ability to obtain critical raw materials. Additionally, internal reports indicate rising pressure on product quality and safety, compounded by ongoing lawsuits and potential regulatory risks.
Lower
Valuation and Investment Sentiment
While some analyses suggest Hologic may be undervalued, there are valuation risks if market sentiment cools, especially given its P/E ratio being above its fair ratio and the industry average. Insider sentiment is currently negative due to recent insider selling.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HOLX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Organic Revenue Growth
Hologic is expected to achieve organic revenue growth of 5-7%, with potential acceleration to the high-single digits (7-9%). This growth is attributed to robust procedure volume, new product launches, and strategic acquisitions in its Diagnostics and Breast Health segments.
Innovation and Product Pipeline
The company's focus on innovation, such as its 3D mammography systems and molecular diagnostic tests, positions it well to capture market share and drive demand. Recent FDA clearance and CE mark achievements for gastrointestinal assays further expand its market reach.
Strategic Acquisitions
Hologic has a history of successful acquisitions, such as the recent purchase of Gynesonics, which expands its GYN Surgical segment and contributes to growth.
Growing Market Demand
The increasing global emphasis on preventive women's health, an aging population, and rising healthcare expenditure, particularly in emerging markets, are expected to sustain demand for Hologic's products.
Margin Expansion and Operational Efficiencies
The company's focus on improving operating margins and operational efficiencies is projected to drive earnings growth of 8-12%.
Transition to Private Ownership
The acquisition by Blackstone and TPG may lead to more focused management and strategic initiatives aimed at growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HOLX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$76.01
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.90
+46.5% from the low
52-Week High
$76.04
-0.0% from the high
1 Month
0.00%
3 Month
+1.60%
YTD
+1.9%
1 Year
+43.1%
3Y CAGR
-2.9%
5Y CAGR
+3.1%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HOLX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.2x
vs 24.2x median
-29% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +8.1% median
-96% below peer median
Net Margin
13.2%
vs 19.3% median
-32% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOL HOLX Hologic, Inc. | $17.0B | 17.2x | +0.3% | 13.2% | Hold | +3.9% |
BDX BDX Becton, Dickinson and Company | $52.4B | 11.6x | +2.3% | 8.0% | Buy | +19.4% |
BAX BAX Baxter International Inc. | $8.8B | 8.9x | +2.9% | -9.7% | Hold | +16.3% |
IDX IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $46.1B | 39.9x | +8.1% | 24.6% | Buy | +33.5% |
DXC DXCM DexCom, Inc. | $23.3B | 24.2x | +12.9% | 19.3% | Buy | +34.0% |
ISR ISRG Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | $160.4B | 43.7x | +14.2% | 28.2% | Buy | +37.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HOLX Dividend and Capital Return
HOLX returns 4.4% annually — null% through dividends and 4.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
4.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$753M
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
228M
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsHOLX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $79, implying +3.9% from the current price of $76.
02What is the HOLX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HOLX is $79 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $79 (+3.9% from today), and the low-end target is $79 (+3.9%). The base case model target is $103.
03Is Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock overvalued in 2026?
HOLX trades at 17.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HOLX in 2026 are: (1) Financial Performance Concerns — Hologic faces significant risks due to slowing revenue growth, particularly in the Diagnostics and Breast Health segments. (2) Merger and Acquisition Risks — The acquisition by Blackstone and TPG introduces integration risks that could disrupt ongoing business operations and lead to potential litigation. (3) Market and Competitive Pressures — Weakness in the global economy and increased competition are adversely affecting Hologic's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hologic, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HOLX will report consensus revenue of $4.1B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.22 (+33.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.2B in revenue.
06When does Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) report its next earnings?
Hologic, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.09 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, HOLX has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Hologic, Inc. generate?
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) generated $1000M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 24.2%. HOLX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($753M TTM).