Upside case
Bull case
$187+48.3%
ALV would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 12, 2026
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
37
analysts
16 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering ALV
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$131
+4.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$89 – $187
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.4B
ALV price targets
Three scenarios for where ALV stock could go
Current
~$126
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 12, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $126
Bear
$89
Base
$142
Bull
$187
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$142+12.6%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$89-29.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push ALV down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Autoliv, Inc.
ALV · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - PartsDecember year-end
Autoliv is a leading global supplier of automotive safety systems, specializing in airbags, seatbelts, and steering wheels for vehicle manufacturers. It generates revenue primarily through sales of passive safety components to automakers — with airbags and seatbelts constituting the vast majority — and operates globally across Europe, the Americas, and Asia. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep engineering expertise, long-standing relationships with major automakers, and economies of scale in manufacturing safety-critical components that require rigorous testing and certification.
Market Cap
$9.4B
Revenue TTM
$10.8B
Net Income TTM
$735M
Net Margin
6.8%
ALV Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.21/$2.09
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.32/$2.09
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.19/$2.85
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.05/$1.83
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.21/$2.09 | +5.7% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.32/$2.09 | +11.0% | $2.7B/$2.7B | -0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.19/$2.85 | +11.9% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.05/$1.83 | +12.0% | $2.8B/$2.6B | +5.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.3B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$11.6B
+2.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.94
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$10.53
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$715M
FCF Margin: 6.6%
Next Earnings
July 17, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.40
Expected Revenue
$2.8B
ALV beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALV Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $10.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other
67.6%
-0.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
33.0%
-2.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other is the largest disclosed segment at 67.6% of FY 2024 revenue, down 0.5% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 33.0%, down 2.9% YoY.
ALV Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $228 — implies +77.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
77.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALV
13.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.0x
47% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
ALV
13.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
38% discount
vs ALV 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.2x
vs
5Y Average
16.0x
18% discount
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
16.2x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.2x
S&P 500
25.0x
-47%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-38%
5Y Avg
16.0x
-18%
PEG Ratio
0.38x
S&P 500
1.69x
-78%
Consumer Cyclical
0.94x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.4x
-51%
Consumer Cyclical
12.1x
-38%
5Y Avg
8.4x
-10%
Price/FCF
13.1x
S&P 500
21.2x
-38%
Consumer Cyclical
15.4x
-15%
5Y Avg
26.8x
-51%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-72%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
0.9x
+0%
Dividend Yield
2.46%
S&P 500
1.87%
+31%
Consumer Cyclical
2.18%
+13%
5Y Avg
2.62%
-6%
| Metric | ALV | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg ALV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 19.1x-37% | 16.2x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.2x | 25.0x-47% | 21.2x-38% | 16.0x-18% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.38x | 1.69x-78% | 0.94x-60% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.4x-51% | 12.1x-38% | 8.4x-10% |
| Price/FCF | 13.1x | 21.2x-38% | 15.4x-15% | 26.8x-51% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-72% | 0.7x+23% | 0.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% | 1.87% | 2.18% | 2.62% |
ALV trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALV Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ALV 19.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 6.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.71
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$715M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$604M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.6× FCF
~2.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
28.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.2%
Dividend
2.5%
Buyback
3.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$351M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.09
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
75M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALV Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Americas exposure
Americas represents 33.0% of disclosed revenue and changed -2.9% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other dependence
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other contributes 67.6% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at -0.5%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
ALV trades at 13.2x trailing earnings versus 25.0x for the S&P 500 and 21.2x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $89.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $11.3B in revenue (4.3% growth) and $9.94 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $715M in trailing free cash flow, a 3.7% buyback yield, and a 2.5% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALV Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Autoliv, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 19.2% gross margin, 10.2% operating margin, and $715M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other still matters
Airbags Steering Wheels and Other accounts for 67.6% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was -0.5%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $131, or 4.3% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches $187. If $11.3B in forward revenue and $9.94 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 6.2% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALV Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$125.79
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$99.16
+26.9% from the low
52-Week High
$132.17
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
+9.53%
3 Month
+21.21%
YTD
+3.0%
1 Year
+13.0%
3Y CAGR
+12.6%
5Y CAGR
+3.8%
10Y CAGR
+3.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALV vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 13.7x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +2.8% median
+50% above peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 2.5% median
+169% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALV ALV Autoliv, Inc. | $9.4B | 12.0x | +4.3% | 6.8% | Hold | +4.3% |
APH APH Amphenol Corporation | $195.0B | 33.4x | +15.0% | 17.3% | Buy | +15.3% |
BWA BWA BorgWarner Inc. | $15.1B | 14.1x | +3.5% | 2.5% | Buy | +4.9% |
APT APTV Aptiv PLC | $14.1B | 10.8x | +2.5% | 1.8% | Buy | +33.0% |
MGA MGA Magna International Inc. | $18.7B | 10.1x | +2.8% | 2.0% | Buy | +0.4% |
VC VC Visteon Corporation | $3.1B | 13.7x | -1.3% | 5.3% | Buy | +3.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALV Dividend and Capital Return
ALV returns capital mainly through $351M/year in buybacks (3.7% buyback yield), with a modest 2.46% dividend — combining for 6.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.7%
Dividend Yield
2.46%
Payout Ratio
32.4%
How ALV Splits Its Return
Div 2.46%
Buyback 3.7%
Dividend 2.46%Buybacks 3.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.09
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.5%
5Y Div CAGR
20.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$351M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
75M
At 3.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.74 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.12 | +13.9% | 3.8% | 6.5% |
| 2024 | $2.74 | +3.0% | 7.3% | 10.2% |
| 2023 | $2.66 | +3.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% |
| 2022 | $2.58 | +37.2% | 1.7% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsALV Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $131, implying +4.3% from the current price of $126. The bear case scenario is $89 and the bull case is $187.
02What is the ALV stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALV is $131 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $143 (+13.7% from today), and the low-end target is $116 (-7.8%). The base case model target is $142.
03Is Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALV trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALV in 2026 are: (1) Americas exposure — Americas represents 33. (2) Airbags Steering Wheels and Other dependence — Airbags Steering Wheels and Other contributes 67. (3) Valuation de-rating — ALV trades at 13. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Autoliv, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALV will report consensus revenue of $11.3B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.94 (+2.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.6B in revenue.
06When does Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) report its next earnings?
Autoliv, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-17. Consensus expects EPS of $2.40 and revenue of $2.8B. Over recent quarters, ALV has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Autoliv, Inc. generate?
Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) generated $715M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.6%. ALV returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.5% yield) and share repurchases ($351M TTM).