Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing APLD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering APLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$61
+38.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.7B
APLD price targets
Three scenarios for where APLD stock could go
Current
~$44
Confidence
27 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Applied Digital Corporation
APLD · NASDAQTechnologyInformation Technology ServicesMay year-end
Applied Digital Corporation operates specialized data centers that provide high-performance computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence workloads and cryptocurrency mining. It generates revenue primarily through data center hosting services — including GPU computing for AI applications and infrastructure for crypto mining operations — with additional income from cloud services and HPC hosting. The company's competitive advantage lies in its purpose-built data centers optimized for energy-intensive computing tasks and its strategic positioning to serve the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.
Market Cap
$12.7B
Revenue TTM
$282M
Net Income TTM
-$123M
Net Margin
-43.5%
APLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-230.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.12
Revenue
$38M/$36M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.13
Revenue
$64M/$50M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.09
Revenue
$127M/$85M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.36/$-0.10
Revenue
$127M/$76M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.12/$-0.12 | +0.0% | $38M/$36M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.11/$-0.13 | +14.7% | $64M/$50M | +28.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.11/$-0.09 | -22.2% | $127M/$85M | +48.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.36/$-0.10 | -260.0% | $127M/$76M | +67.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$386M
+37.0% YoY
FY2
$546M
+41.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.63
-37.1% YoY
FY2
$-0.67
-6.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.3B
FCF Margin: -476.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
APLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
APLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $51000
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mining Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Mining Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
APLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $18 — implies -47.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
47.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APLD
-38.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
251% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
APLD
-38.1x
vs
Technology
27.5x
239% discount
vs APLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-38.1x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Technology
21.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-38.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-251%
Technology
27.5x
-239%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1167.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+7552%
Technology
17.4x
+6618%
5Y Avg
95.7x
+1119%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Technology
19.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
58.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1774%
Technology
2.4x
+2332%
5Y Avg
14.1x
+317%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
S&P 500
1.88%
-98%
Technology
1.18%
-98%
5Y Avg
0.19%
-85%
| Metric | APLD | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg APLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 21.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | -38.1x | 25.2x-251% | 27.5x-239% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1167.0x | 15.3x+7552% | 17.4x+6618% | 95.7x+1119% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 19.8x | — |
| Price/Sales | 58.7x | 3.1x+1774% | 2.4x+2332% | 14.1x+317% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.03% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 0.19% |
APLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPLD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for APLD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$282M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+54.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-31.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-43.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-476.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$114M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$589M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-7.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$31M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
201M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAPLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt and Cash Burn
Applied Digital has substantial long-term debt and has burned through $445.2 million in cash over the last year, raising concerns about leverage and potential future capital raises. The company's debt exceeds its cash on hand, which could lead to dilution if additional funding is required.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
The company relies heavily on a small number of customers for a significant portion of its revenue, creating a high customer concentration risk. This dependence makes APLD vulnerable to revenue fluctuations if any major customer reduces their orders or switches to competitors.
High Risk
Profitability and GAAP Losses
Despite reporting positive adjusted EBITDA, APLD continues to face significant net losses on a GAAP basis, with a reported net loss of approximately $101 million in Q1 2026. This trend raises concerns about the company's long-term profitability and financial health.
Medium
Stock Price Volatility
APLD's stock price has been volatile, experiencing sharp declines attributed to profit-taking after significant rallies and broader market concerns about AI infrastructure valuations. This volatility may continue to impact investor sentiment and stock performance.
Medium
Execution and Expansion Risks
The company's expansion plans and recent acquisitions involve high costs for building and deploying equipment. There are concerns about APLD's ability to execute these large projects on time and secure long-term contracts in a capital-intensive industry.
Lower
Regulatory Uncertainties
The evolving nature of the cryptocurrency and digital infrastructure industries presents regulatory uncertainties that could impact APLD's operations. Changes in regulations could affect the company's business model and profitability.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that APLD shares are trading at a premium, with high valuation multiples like EV/EBITDA. This pricing may reflect significant future growth expectations, which could be challenging to meet.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Growth in Data Centers and AI Infrastructure
Applied Digital operates in the rapidly growing data center sector, driven by increasing demand for cloud computing and AI. The company's potential to expand capacity and secure new clients positions it well to capitalize on this trend.
Strategic Partnerships and Customer Acquisition
The ability to form strategic partnerships and attract major clients is crucial for APLD's bull case. Long-term contracts with reputable companies in AI, blockchain, or cloud services would indicate strong demand and revenue stability.
Technological Innovation and Differentiation
APLD's focus on technological advancements, such as energy-efficient data center designs and specialized cooling solutions, sets it apart in the market. These innovations are essential for meeting the demands of AI and high-performance computing applications.
Financial Performance and Profitability
Positive trends in revenue growth and improving profit margins are vital for APLD's bull case. Evidence of increasing profitability and efficient cost management would indicate a clear path to sustainable earnings.
Market Expansion and Diversification
If APLD is successfully expanding into new geographic markets or diversifying its service offerings, this could significantly enhance its growth prospects. Such moves would be viewed positively by investors looking for future growth drivers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.20
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.99
+785.8% from the low
52-Week High
$44.22
-0.0% from the high
1 Month
+75.47%
3 Month
+26.47%
YTD
+57.2%
1 Year
+748.4%
3Y CAGR
+135.4%
5Y CAGR
+55.6%
10Y CAGR
+24.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 221.8x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+37.0%
vs +41.5% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
-43.5%
vs -342.9% median
+87% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APL APLD Applied Digital Corporation | $12.7B | — | +37.0% | -43.5% | Buy | +38.0% |
BTB BTBT Bit Digital, Inc. | $622M | — | +41.5% | — | Buy | +159.1% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $8.9B | — | +43.0% | — | Buy | +27.2% |
IRE IREN IREN Limited | $20.3B | 149.3x | +43.8% | — | Buy | +23.9% |
COR CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. | $7.8B | 294.3x | +11.8% | -342.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $12.1B | — | +36.9% | — | Buy | -27.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APLD Dividend and Capital Return
APLD returns capital mainly through $31M/year in buybacks (0.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.03% dividend — combining for 0.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
Payout Ratio
—
How APLD Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.03%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$31M
Estimated Shares Retired
709.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
201M
FAQ
7 questionsAPLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $61, implying +38.0% from the current price of $44.
02What is the APLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APLD is $61 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $99 (+124.0% from today), and the low-end target is $40 (-9.5%).
03Is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for APLD is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APLD in 2026 are: (1) High Debt and Cash Burn — Applied Digital has substantial long-term debt and has burned through $445. (2) Customer Concentration — The company relies heavily on a small number of customers for a significant portion of its revenue, creating a high customer concentration risk. (3) Profitability and GAAP Losses — Despite reporting positive adjusted EBITDA, APLD continues to face significant net losses on a GAAP basis, with a reported net loss of approximately $101 million in Q1 2026. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Applied Digital Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APLD will report consensus revenue of $386M (+37.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.63 (-37.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $546M in revenue.
06When does Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for APLD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Applied Digital Corporation generate?
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) had a free cash outflow of $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 476.5%. APLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($31M TTM).