Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing APLD more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering APLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$77
+64.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.3B
APLD price targets
Three scenarios for where APLD stock could go
Current
~$47
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Applied Digital Corporation
APLD · NASDAQTechnologyInformation Technology ServicesMay year-end
Applied Digital Corporation operates specialized data centers that provide high-performance computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence workloads and cryptocurrency mining. It generates revenue primarily through data center hosting services — including GPU computing for AI applications and infrastructure for crypto mining operations — with additional income from cloud services and HPC hosting. The company's competitive advantage lies in its purpose-built data centers optimized for energy-intensive computing tasks and its strategic positioning to serve the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.
Market Cap
$13.3B
Revenue TTM
$282M
Net Income TTM
-$123M
Net Margin
-43.5%
APLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-230.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.12
Revenue
$38M/$36M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.13
Revenue
$64M/$50M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.09
Revenue
$127M/$85M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.36/$-0.10
Revenue
$127M/$76M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.12/$-0.12 | +0.0% | $38M/$36M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.11/$-0.13 | +14.7% | $64M/$50M | +28.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.11/$-0.09 | -22.2% | $127M/$85M | +48.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.36/$-0.10 | -260.0% | $127M/$76M | +67.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$322M
+14.2% YoY
FY2
$360M
+11.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.26
+43.4% YoY
FY2
$-0.27
-3.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.3B
FCF Margin: -476.5%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.26
Expected Revenue
$92M
APLD beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
APLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $51000
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Mining Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Mining Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
APLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APLD
-40.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
264% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
APLD
-40.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
238% discount
vs APLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-40.2x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Technology
22.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-40.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-264%
Technology
29.0x
-238%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1227.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+7969%
Technology
16.6x
+7283%
5Y Avg
95.7x
+1182%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
61.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1902%
Technology
2.4x
+2438%
5Y Avg
14.1x
+339%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
S&P 500
1.91%
-99%
Technology
1.11%
-97%
5Y Avg
0.19%
-85%
| Metric | APLD | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg APLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -40.2x | 24.4x-264% | 29.0x-238% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1227.3x | 15.2x+7969% | 16.6x+7283% | 95.7x+1182% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 61.9x | 3.1x+1902% | 2.4x+2438% | 14.1x+339% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.03% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.19% |
APLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 3 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPLD Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for APLD are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$282M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+54.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-31.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-43.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-476.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$114M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$589M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-7.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
0.0%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$31M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
286M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAPLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cash burn concerns
The company reported a $720 million quarterly cash burn, raising sustainability concerns.
High Risk
Customer concentration risk
Elevated customer concentration poses a significant risk to revenue stability.
Medium
Volatility and pullback
APLD stock has experienced sharp pullbacks after a 700% rally, indicating high volatility.
Medium
Revenue sustainability
Despite a 250% YoY revenue surge, questions remain about long-term growth sustainability.
Lower
Analyst consensus divergence
While analysts rate it a Strong Buy, the stock is currently rated a cautious Hold due to recent performance.
Lower
Risk factor disclosure
The company disclosed 80 risk factors in its recent earnings report, highlighting operational and financial challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI-driven growth pivot
The company's strategic shift towards AI-focused initiatives has been a key driver of its stock appreciation.
Data center expansion
Applied Digital's rapid expansion of high-performance computing infrastructure supports scalable growth in AI and data services.
Strong analyst consensus
With a $35 consensus price target and high conviction from analysts, the company is viewed favorably on Wall Street.
Landmark financing deal
A $2.15 billion debt financing deal enables aggressive expansion of critical data center capacity.
Transformative projects
The company's advancement of transformative projects continues to validate the bullish investment thesis.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.59
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$9.02
+416.5% from the low
52-Week High
$50.73
-8.2% from the high
1 Month
+19.03%
3 Month
+74.82%
YTD
+65.7%
1 Year
+339.1%
3Y CAGR
+71.2%
5Y CAGR
+57.2%
10Y CAGR
+25.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+14.2%
vs +13.8% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
-43.5%
vs -244.5% median
+82% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APL APLD Applied Digital Corporation | $13.3B | — | +14.2% | -43.5% | Buy | +64.5% |
BTB BTBT Bit Digital, Inc. | $707M | — | +1.2% | -146.0% | Buy | +176.5% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $11.8B | — | +19.8% | -513.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
IRE IREN IREN Limited | $21.4B | — | +15.3% | 31.7% | Buy | +36.5% |
COR CORZ Core Scientific, Inc. | $9.3B | — | +12.4% | -342.9% | Buy | +12.7% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $14.0B | — | — | — | Buy | -14.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APLD Dividend and Capital Return
APLD returns capital mainly through $31M/year in buybacks (0.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.03% dividend — combining for 0.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.03%
Payout Ratio
—
How APLD Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.03%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$31M
Estimated Shares Retired
672.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
286M
FAQ
7 questionsAPLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $77, implying +64.5% from the current price of $47.
02What is the APLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APLD is $77 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $99 (+112.5% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-3.4%).
03Is Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for APLD is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APLD in 2026 are: (1) Cash burn concerns — The company reported a $720 million quarterly cash burn, raising sustainability concerns. (2) Customer concentration risk — Elevated customer concentration poses a significant risk to revenue stability. (3) Volatility and pullback — APLD stock has experienced sharp pullbacks after a 700% rally, indicating high volatility. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Applied Digital Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APLD will report consensus revenue of $322M (+14.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.26 (+43.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $360M in revenue.
06When does Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) report its next earnings?
Applied Digital Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.26 and revenue of $92M. Over recent quarters, APLD has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Applied Digital Corporation generate?
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) had a free cash outflow of $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 476.5%. APLD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.0% yield) and share repurchases ($31M TTM).