Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IREN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
IREN Limited (IREN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 13 covering IREN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
3
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$76
+23.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$36338263 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
149.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.3B
IREN price targets
Three scenarios for where IREN stock could go
Current
~$61
Confidence
24 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $61
Bear
$36338263
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$36338263+59590360.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push IREN down roughly 59590361% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
IREN Limited
IREN · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsJune year-end
IREN Limited is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company that operates data centers and computing infrastructure in Australia and Canada. It generates revenue primarily from Bitcoin mining rewards — converting electricity into digital assets — with additional income from data center services and infrastructure operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its vertical integration — controlling power sourcing, infrastructure, and mining operations — which provides cost efficiency and operational control in the energy-intensive mining industry.
Market Cap
$20.3B
Net Income TTM
-$16M
IREN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-181.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.17
Revenue
$145M/$172M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.18
Revenue
$187M/$189M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.34/$0.15
Revenue
$240M/$241M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.44/$-0.24
Revenue
$185M/$227M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.11/$0.17 | -35.3% | $145M/$172M | -15.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.18 | -54.7% | $187M/$189M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.34/$0.15 | -326.8% | $240M/$241M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.44/$-0.24 | -82.0% | $185M/$227M | -18.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$721M
+43.8% YoY
FY2
$1.2B
+66.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.08
-1903.0% YoY
FY2
$-1.38
-27.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$260M
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.22
Expected Revenue
$220M
IREN beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
IREN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $501M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
AUSTRALIA
96.7%
+163.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
AUSTRALIA is the largest reported region at 96.7%, up 163.3% YoY.
IREN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $12 — implies -72.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
72.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IREN
156.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+520% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
IREN
156.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+1070% premium
vs IREN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
156.4x
vs
5Y Average
37.4x
+319% premium
Forward PE
149.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+683%
Financial Services
10.5x
+1322%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
156.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+520%
Financial Services
13.4x
+1070%
5Y Avg
37.4x
+319%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
104.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+583%
Financial Services
11.4x
+813%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+369%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
40.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+1191%
Financial Services
2.3x
+1696%
5Y Avg
4.6x
+789%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IREN | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg IREN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 149.3x | 19.1x+683% | 10.5x+1322% | — |
| Trailing PE | 156.4x | 25.2x+520% | 13.4x+1070% | 37.4x+319% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 104.1x | 15.3x+583% | 11.4x+813% | 22.2x+369% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 40.4x | 3.1x+1191% | 2.3x+1696% | 4.6x+789% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
IREN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIREN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
IREN generates -0.6% ROE and -0.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.05
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
-0.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
0.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$565M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$400M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
-0.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageIREN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Dilution Risk
IREN has expanded its at-the-market (ATM) share-sale capacity to up to $6 billion, raising concerns about potential dilution for existing shareholders. This could significantly increase the number of outstanding shares as the company seeks to finance GPU purchases and capacity expansion.
High Risk
Execution and Operational Risks
IREN is in a critical 'prove-it' phase where its revenue growth is heavily dependent on successfully executing its infrastructure build-out. Delays or failures in converting contracted capacity into utilized services could adversely affect earnings timelines from its large-scale AI investments.
High Risk
Customer Concentration
A $9.7 billion, five-year cloud contract with Microsoft is a cornerstone of IREN's growth forecasts. However, losing or renegotiating this major contract could have a significant negative impact on the company's equity and overall financial health.
Medium
Dependence on Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
Despite transitioning to AI infrastructure, IREN's legacy Bitcoin mining segment still contributes significantly to its revenue. This dependence makes the stock vulnerable to the volatility of Bitcoin prices and broader crypto market conditions.
Medium
Capital Intensity and Funding
The aggressive scaling of IREN's AI infrastructure, including GPU buildouts and data center expansion, requires substantial capital. Concerns exist regarding the company's ability to fund these initiatives without increasing dilution or facing financial headwinds.
Medium
Market Sentiment and Sector Volatility
As an AI infrastructure play, IREN is subject to broader market sentiment regarding AI growth and spending. Negative reports questioning the sustainability of AI developer spending can adversely affect IREN's stock, even in the absence of company-specific news.
Lower
Financial Health and Profitability
While revenue is forecast to grow, IREN has experienced revenue volatility and negative earnings per share (EPS) during its transition. Analysts project a return to positive EPS in a later fiscal year, but concerns about the company's balance sheet persist.
Lower
Geopolitical Events
External factors, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East, have the potential to cause significant stock price volatility for IREN. These geopolitical events can impact investor sentiment and market conditions.
Lower
Internal Control Weaknesses
A recent filing indicated that IREN did not maintain effective internal controls over financial reporting for a past fiscal year, citing material weaknesses related to equity compensation and governance. This raises concerns about the reliability of financial statements.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IREN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI Cloud Expansion and Infrastructure
IREN is aggressively deploying GPUs, with plans to reach 150,000 units, including securing over 50,000 Nvidia B300 GPUs. This expansion targets a significant annualized AI cloud revenue run-rate, with projections reaching $3.7 billion by the end of 2026.
Strategic Partnerships
Key partnerships with major players like Microsoft, Dell, and Nvidia are crucial. A significant five-year deal with Microsoft for 77,000 GPUs is expected to generate approximately $1.94 billion in annualized revenue.
Revenue Growth
AI Cloud Services revenue has seen substantial growth, surging 6x year-over-year to $17.3 million in Q2 FY26, with high gross margins of 86%. This segment is expected to drive future growth despite being a small fraction of total sales.
Contracted Revenue
IREN has a substantial amount of revenue under contract, with an estimated $2.3 billion annualized revenue run-rate already secured. This strong contracted revenue base provides a solid foundation for future financial performance.
Positive Cash Flow
IREN has achieved positive cash flow from operations, indicating effective management of its infrastructure and financial challenges. Free cash flow per share is also trending upward, reflecting improved operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IREN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.98
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.01
+914.6% from the low
52-Week High
$76.87
-20.7% from the high
1 Month
+73.58%
3 Month
+45.78%
YTD
+42.8%
1 Year
+838.2%
3Y CAGR
+164.9%
5Y CAGR
+20.1%
10Y CAGR
+9.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IREN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
149.3x
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+43.8%
vs +38.2% median
+15% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs -33.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRE IREN IREN Limited | $20.3B | 149.3x | +43.8% | — | Buy | +23.9% |
RIO RIOT Riot Platforms, Inc. | $9.0B | — | +38.2% | — | Buy | +17.8% |
MAR MARA Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. | $5.0B | — | +29.5% | — | Buy | +23.8% |
CLS CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. | $3.7B | — | +40.2% | -33.2% | Buy | +39.4% |
CIF CIFR Cipher Mining Inc. | $8.9B | — | +43.0% | — | Buy | +27.2% |
HUT HUT Hut 8 Corp. | $12.1B | — | +36.9% | — | Buy | -27.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsIREN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is IREN Limited (IREN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
IREN Limited (IREN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $76, implying +23.9% from the current price of $61.
02What is the IREN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IREN is $76 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $105 (+72.2% from today), and the low-end target is $39 (-36.0%).
03Is IREN Limited (IREN) stock overvalued in 2026?
IREN trades at 149.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for IREN Limited (IREN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IREN in 2026 are: (1) Dilution Risk — IREN has expanded its at-the-market (ATM) share-sale capacity to up to $6 billion, raising concerns about potential dilution for existing shareholders. (2) Execution and Operational Risks — IREN is in a critical 'prove-it' phase where its revenue growth is heavily dependent on successfully executing its infrastructure build-out. (3) Customer Concentration — A $9. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is IREN Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IREN will report consensus revenue of $721M (+43.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.08 (-1903.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.2B in revenue.
06When does IREN Limited (IREN) report its next earnings?
IREN Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.22 and revenue of $220M. Over recent quarters, IREN has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does IREN Limited generate?
IREN Limited (IREN) had a free cash outflow of $260M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. IREN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).