Upside case
Bull case
$286+132.7%
ARES would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering ARES
Strong Buy
1
Buy
16
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$177
+44.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $286
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $40.4B
ARES price targets
Three scenarios for where ARES stock could go
Current
~$123
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $123
Base
$264
Bull
$286
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$264+114.9%
At 43x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ares Management Corporation
ARES · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
Ares Management is a global alternative asset manager that invests across credit, private equity, and real estate. It generates fees primarily through management fees on its $419 billion in assets under management — about 70% of revenue — with the remainder coming from performance fees when funds exceed return targets. Its competitive advantage lies in its scale across multiple alternative asset classes and its deep relationships with institutional investors who value its integrated platform approach.
Market Cap
$40.4B
Net Income TTM
$527M
ARES Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.03/$1.08
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.19/$1.15
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.45/$1.69
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.32
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.03/$1.08 | -4.6% | $1.4B/$1.0B | +33.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.19/$1.15 | +3.5% | $1.7B/$1.1B | +57.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.45/$1.69 | -14.2% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.32 | -6.1% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.6B
+17.9% YoY
FY2
$10.4B
+35.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.71
+55.7% YoY
FY2
$4.21
+13.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ARES beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ARES Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management Service
64.4%
+24.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Management Service is the largest disclosed segment at 64.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 24.6% YoY.
ARES Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $104 — implies -12.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARES
62.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+150% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ARES
62.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+371% premium
vs ARES 5Y Avg P/E
Today
62.7x
vs
5Y Average
66.7x
6% discount
Forward PE
20.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+6%
Financial Services
10.4x
+94%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
62.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+150%
Financial Services
13.3x
+371%
5Y Avg
66.7x
-6%
PEG Ratio
3.56x
S&P 500
1.72x
+107%
Financial Services
1.01x
+252%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+76%
Financial Services
11.4x
+135%
5Y Avg
33.2x
-19%
Price/FCF
26.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+24%
Financial Services
10.6x
+148%
5Y Avg
17.9x
+46%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+100%
Financial Services
2.2x
+180%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+10%
Dividend Yield
6.57%
S&P 500
1.87%
+252%
Financial Services
2.70%
+144%
5Y Avg
4.84%
+36%
| Metric | ARES | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ARES |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.2x | 19.1x | 10.4x+94% | — |
| Trailing PE | 62.7x | 25.1x+150% | 13.3x+371% | 66.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.56x | 1.72x+107% | 1.01x+252% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9x | 15.2x+76% | 11.4x+135% | 33.2x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 26.1x | 21.1x+24% | 10.6x+148% | 17.9x+46% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+100% | 2.2x+180% | 5.7x+10% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.57% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 4.84% |
ARES trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARES Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ARES generates 6.2% ROE and 1.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.38
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
6.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
6.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
6.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$8.08
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
328M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageARES Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market and Economic Downturns
A prolonged downturn in global markets can significantly impact Ares Management's Assets Under Management (AUM) and associated fees. The firm's business verticals are cyclical and vulnerable to widespread economic weakness, which can be exacerbated by global economic trends and uncertainty.
High Risk
Private Credit Concerns
Renewed investor anxiety regarding private credit, including risks associated with AI, underwriting standards, and liquidity, poses a significant threat to Ares Management. Although only a small percentage of Ares' AUM is linked to software, the overall scrutiny of the private credit market can adversely affect managers heavily invested in this sector.
High Risk
Liquidity and Redemptions
Elevated redemption activity in private credit vehicles raises concerns about investor sentiment and cash flows within the alternative asset management sector. Ares' funds are generally illiquid, with restricted marketability and potentially long realization times, which can lead to risks of non-payment or stagnant dividends.
Medium
Geopolitical and Exchange Rate Exposure
As a global firm, Ares Management is susceptible to geopolitical events and fluctuations in exchange rates, which can affect its international operations and profitability. Such risks can lead to increased volatility in earnings and asset valuations.
Medium
Valuation and Investor Sentiment
Ares Management's stock may be perceived as overvalued based on certain metrics, particularly its high P/E ratio compared to industry averages. Recent weak share price momentum and cautious research coverage can amplify downside risk, especially during periods of market uncertainty.
Medium
Dependence on Key Personnel
The performance of Ares Management is heavily reliant on its key personnel, and there is no assurance that these individuals will remain with the company. Loss of key talent could adversely affect the firm's strategic direction and operational effectiveness.
Lower
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Changes in laws, regulatory policies, or tax guidelines, particularly those affecting regulated investment companies (RICs) or business development companies (BDCs), can introduce uncertainties for Ares Management. Such regulatory shifts may impact operational flexibility and compliance costs.
Lower
Fund-Specific Risks
Specific funds like the Ares Private Markets Fund and Ares Strategic Income Fund face unique risks, including uncertainty of distributions and potential illiquidity. Some funds are non-diversified, increasing susceptibility to adverse impacts from single events.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARES Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Largest BDC with Scale Advantages
ARCC is the largest business development company (BDC), leveraging its significant scale in the private credit market to originate and structure deals that smaller competitors cannot access. This provides a durable competitive advantage.
Attractive Valuation and Dividend
The stock appears attractively valued, trading at a price-to-NAV of 0.91x, suggesting the market values the portfolio below its intrinsic net asset value. It also offers a compelling dividend yield, currently around 9.6% to 10.6%, supported by recurring cash flows from a diversified loan book.
Strong Financial Performance
ARCC's Q1 2026 earnings were solid, with net interest income (NII) per share improving. The company has demonstrated consistent returns outperforming the S&P 500 and the broader BDC index since its IPO.
Leading Alternative Asset Manager
Ares Management is a leading alternative-asset manager with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% through 2027. This growth is driven by its strong direct-lending platform and increasing client demand for performance and value.
Significant Fundraising and Deployment
The company has experienced record fundraising, raising over $30 billion in Q3 and exceeding $105 billion over the trailing 12 months. Deployment of capital has also surged, with $41 billion invested in Q3, showing strong activity across various strategies.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts (10 out of 15) have a buy or strong buy rating on ARES stock, indicating a generally bullish outlook.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARES Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$122.96
52W Range Position
27%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$95.80
+28.4% from the low
52-Week High
$195.26
-37.0% from the high
1 Month
+19.58%
3 Month
+0.89%
YTD
-26.1%
1 Year
-23.5%
3Y CAGR
+14.5%
5Y CAGR
+18.6%
10Y CAGR
+24.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARES vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.2x
vs 16.7x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.9%
vs +15.0% median
+19% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.4B | 20.2x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +44.3% |
APO APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $74.0B | 14.7x | -17.3% | — | Buy | +20.7% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.9B | 16.7x | +4.5% | — | Buy | +40.2% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.5B | 11.9x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +31.3% |
BAM BAM Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. | $81.3B | 26.2x | +16.2% | — | Buy | +27.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ARES Dividend and Capital Return
ARES returns 6.6% total yield, led by a 6.57% dividend, raised 7 consecutive years.
Dividend UnknownFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.57%
Payout Ratio
—
How ARES Splits Its Return
Div 6.57%
Dividend 6.57%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.08
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.5%
5Y Div CAGR
22.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
328M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.48 | +20.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $3.72 | +20.8% | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $3.08 | +26.2% | 0.0% | 4.4% |
| 2022 | $2.44 | +29.8% | 0.0% | 7.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsARES Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ares Management Corporation (ARES) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $177, implying +44.3% from the current price of $123.
02What is the ARES stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARES is $177 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $215 (+74.9% from today), and the low-end target is $148 (+20.4%). The base case model target is $264.
03Is Ares Management Corporation (ARES) stock overvalued in 2026?
ARES trades at 20.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ares Management Corporation (ARES) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARES in 2026 are: (1) Market and Economic Downturns — A prolonged downturn in global markets can significantly impact Ares Management's Assets Under Management (AUM) and associated fees. (2) Private Credit Concerns — Renewed investor anxiety regarding private credit, including risks associated with AI, underwriting standards, and liquidity, poses a significant threat to Ares Management. (3) Liquidity and Redemptions — Elevated redemption activity in private credit vehicles raises concerns about investor sentiment and cash flows within the alternative asset management sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ares Management Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARES will report consensus revenue of $7.6B (+17.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.71 (+55.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.4B in revenue.
06When does Ares Management Corporation (ARES) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ARES is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ares Management Corporation generate?
Ares Management Corporation (ARES) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ARES returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).