Upside case
Bull case
$213+315.1%
CG would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 25 covering CG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+31.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $213
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.5B
CG price targets
Three scenarios for where CG stock could go
Current
~$51
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $51
Base
$55
Bull
$213
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$55+7.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CG — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Carlyle Group Inc.
CG · NASDAQFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
The Carlyle Group is a global investment firm that manages capital for institutional and individual investors across private equity, real assets, and credit strategies. It generates revenue primarily through management fees — typically 1-2% of assets under management — and performance fees or carried interest, which can be 20% or more of investment profits. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive global network of industry relationships and deep sector expertise across multiple asset classes.
Market Cap
$18.5B
Net Income TTM
$662M
CG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.14/$0.95
Revenue
$808M/$992M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.91/$0.89
Revenue
$1.6B/$905M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.98/$1.02
Revenue
$781M/$990M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.01/$1.00
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.14/$0.95 | +19.4% | $808M/$992M | -18.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.91/$0.89 | +2.5% | $1.6B/$905M | +73.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.98/$1.02 | -3.9% | $781M/$990M | -21.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.01/$1.00 | +1.4% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+28.2% YoY
FY2
$7.0B
+33.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.53
+43.9% YoY
FY2
$2.99
+18.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.00
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
CG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $4.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Fund Management Fee
49.6%
+6.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
75.5%
+217.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Fund Management Fee is the largest disclosed segment at 49.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 6.9% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 75.5%, up 217.8% YoY.
CG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $57 — implies +15.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CG
18.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
26% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CG
18.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+39% premium
vs CG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.5x
vs
5Y Average
16.6x
+12% premium
Forward PE
11.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Financial Services
10.4x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-26%
Financial Services
13.3x
+39%
5Y Avg
16.6x
+12%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Financial Services
11.4x
+44%
5Y Avg
15.5x
+6%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
58.9x
—
Price/Sales
4.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+45%
Financial Services
2.2x
+103%
5Y Avg
4.8x
-6%
Dividend Yield
2.66%
S&P 500
1.87%
+43%
Financial Services
2.70%
-1%
5Y Avg
3.01%
-12%
| Metric | CG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.9x | 19.1x-37% | 10.4x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.5x | 25.1x-26% | 13.3x+39% | 16.6x+12% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.4x | 15.2x | 11.4x+44% | 15.5x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 58.9x |
| Price/Sales | 4.5x | 3.1x+45% | 2.2x+103% | 4.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.66% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.01% |
CG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CG generates 9.7% ROE and 2.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.76
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
2.7%
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$555M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.37
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
49.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
368M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Private equity underperformance
The Carlyle Group's private equity segment may face significant underperformance due to declining production from certain assets and lagging behind industry peers. This could adversely affect overall financial results and investor sentiment.
High Risk
Revenue and earnings decline
In 2025, Carlyle Group is projected to experience a decrease in revenue and earnings compared to the previous year, indicating potential financial instability. This decline may lead to a reassessment of the company's valuation and growth prospects.
Medium
High debt costs
The company's business model is at risk from higher debt costs, which could impact profitability and cash flow. This situation may be exacerbated by industry challenges such as slower exits and extended holding periods.
Medium
Stock price volatility
Carlyle Group's stock has seen a significant 21.6% drop year-to-date, raising concerns about market confidence and potential further declines. This volatility could deter new investors and affect the company's market capitalization.
Lower
Compressed development timelines
There is a risk associated with a compressed development timeline for the company's therapies, which may lead investors to reassess the associated risks. While this could impact future revenue streams, the overall effect may be less immediate.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversified Business Model
Carlyle operates across private equity, credit, and real assets, providing a diversified revenue stream. The global credit segment is a significant contributor, with substantial assets under management.
Fee-Related Earnings Growth
The company has set ambitious financial targets, aiming for Fee Related Earnings of at least $1.9 billion by the end of 2028. This focus on recurring revenue streams is a positive indicator.
Share Buyback Program
A $2 billion share repurchase program has been approved, which can increase shareholder value by reducing the number of outstanding shares.
Strong Assets Under Management
Carlyle's AUM has shown growth, reaching $474.1 billion as of September 2025, indicating strong foundational capabilities.
Potential for Recovery and Upside
Despite recent headwinds, analysts see potential for recovery, with average price targets suggesting significant upside from current levels. Some forecasts indicate potential for around 36% gain by 2027.
Focus on Durable, Recurring Revenue
Carlyle is actively scaling durable, recurring revenue streams across multiple asset classes.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.29
52W Range Position
39%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$39.48
+29.9% from the low
52-Week High
$69.85
-26.6% from the high
1 Month
+9.43%
3 Month
-7.44%
YTD
-15.7%
1 Year
+26.6%
3Y CAGR
+24.3%
5Y CAGR
+3.0%
10Y CAGR
+12.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.9x
vs 16.7x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+28.2%
vs +15.0% median
+88% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.5B | 11.9x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +31.3% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.9B | 16.7x | +4.5% | — | Buy | +40.2% |
APO APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $74.0B | 14.7x | -17.3% | — | Buy | +20.7% |
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.4B | 20.2x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +44.3% |
TPG TPG TPG Inc. | $17.5B | 16.5x | +23.6% | — | Buy | +42.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CG Dividend and Capital Return
CG returns 5.7% annually — 2.66% through dividends and 3.0% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
2.66%
Payout Ratio
49.3%
How CG Splits Its Return
Div 2.66%
Buyback 3.0%
Dividend 2.66%Buybacks 3.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.37
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.6%
5Y Div CAGR
7.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$555M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
368M
At 2.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.40 | 0.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.40 | +1.8% | 3.0% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $1.38 | +12.2% | 1.4% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $1.22 | +22.5% | 1.7% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsCG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +31.3% from the current price of $51.
02What is the CG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CG is $67 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $74 (+44.3% from today), and the low-end target is $56 (+9.2%). The base case model target is $55.
03Is The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) stock overvalued in 2026?
CG trades at 11.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CG in 2026 are: (1) Private equity underperformance — The Carlyle Group's private equity segment may face significant underperformance due to declining production from certain assets and lagging behind industry peers. (2) Revenue and earnings decline — In 2025, Carlyle Group is projected to experience a decrease in revenue and earnings compared to the previous year, indicating potential financial instability. (3) High debt costs — The company's business model is at risk from higher debt costs, which could impact profitability and cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Carlyle Group Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CG will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+28.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.53 (+43.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.0B in revenue.
06When does The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) report its next earnings?
The Carlyle Group Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.00 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, CG has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Carlyle Group Inc. generate?
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.7% yield) and share repurchases ($555M TTM).