Upside case
Bull case
$454+248.4%
APO would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
24 bullish · 0 bearish · 28 covering APO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$157
+20.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $454
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $74.0B
APO price targets
Three scenarios for where APO stock could go
Current
~$130
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $130
Base
$97
Bull
$454
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$97-25.4%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
APO · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset Management - GlobalDecember year-end
Apollo Global Management is a leading alternative asset manager that invests across credit, private equity, and real estate markets. It generates fees primarily through management fees on its $650+ billion in assets under management and performance fees — typically 20% of investment profits — from its private equity and credit funds. Its competitive advantage lies in its deep credit expertise, global scale, and ability to execute complex transactions that few competitors can match.
Market Cap
$74.0B
Net Income TTM
$4.2B
APO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.82/$1.84
Revenue
$5.5B/$4.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.92/$1.84
Revenue
$6.8B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.14/$1.90
Revenue
$9.8B/$4.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.04
Revenue
$9.9B/$4.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.82/$1.84 | -1.1% | $5.5B/$4.4B | +25.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.92/$1.84 | +4.3% | $6.8B/$4.6B | +49.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.14/$1.90 | +12.6% | $9.8B/$4.9B | +99.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.04 | +21.1% | $9.9B/$4.8B | +106.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.6B
-17.3% YoY
FY2
$19.6B
-9.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.94
-14.6% YoY
FY2
$5.47
-8.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.97
Expected Revenue
$5.3B
APO beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
APO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $26.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retirement Services Segment
84.0%
-24.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Retirement Services Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 84.0% of FY 2024 revenue, down 24.7% YoY.
APO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $164 — implies +26.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
26.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APO
17.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
29% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
APO
17.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+33% premium
vs APO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.8x
vs
5Y Average
38.7x
54% discount
Forward PE
14.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-23%
Financial Services
10.4x
+41%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-29%
Financial Services
13.3x
+33%
5Y Avg
38.7x
-54%
PEG Ratio
1.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
-29%
Financial Services
1.01x
+20%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-52%
Financial Services
11.4x
-36%
5Y Avg
14.2x
-49%
Price/FCF
22.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+8%
Financial Services
10.6x
+116%
5Y Avg
16.7x
+36%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-9%
Financial Services
2.2x
+27%
5Y Avg
3.3x
-14%
Dividend Yield
1.39%
S&P 500
1.87%
-26%
Financial Services
2.70%
-49%
5Y Avg
2.69%
-49%
| Metric | APO | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg APO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.7x | 19.1x-23% | 10.4x+41% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.8x | 25.1x-29% | 13.3x+33% | 38.7x-54% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.22x | 1.72x-29% | 1.01x+20% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.3x | 15.2x-52% | 11.4x-36% | 14.2x-49% |
| Price/FCF | 22.7x | 21.1x | 10.6x+116% | 16.7x+36% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x | 2.2x+27% | 3.3x-14% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.39% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.69% |
APO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
APO generates 10.6% ROE and 0.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.96
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
10.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$16.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$5.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
10.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$890M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.81
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
24.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
604M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAPO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Capital Structure Vulnerability
Apollo’s retirement services business shows a critical capital structure risk, with an Altman Z‑Score of 0.0 indicating potential distress or bankruptcy. The return on invested capital also falls below the cost of equity, suggesting new investments could erode shareholder value.
High Risk
Market Volatility Impact
Fluctuations in market prices and trading volumes can cause rapid and substantial losses for APO shareholders. Revenue, earnings, and cash flow are highly variable, making steady quarterly growth difficult and contributing to stock price volatility.
Medium
Spread Compression in Retirement Services
In the Athene retirement segment, spread compression—where the gap between investment returns and cost of funds narrows—poses a profit risk. This occurs amid fluctuating interest rates and increased competition.
Medium
Fee Structure Pressure
Apollo’s competitive advantage has historically relied on performance and management fees. A decline in these fees within the alternative investment industry could reduce revenues and squeeze profitability.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Risk
Potential regulatory changes affecting investment strategies or insurance products, coupled with shareholder class action lawsuits tied to executives’ past associations with Jeffrey Epstein, could impose legal costs and reputational damage.
Lower
Illiquidity of Private Loans
Apollo’s private loans are illiquid and difficult to trade, potentially burdening investors and necessitating higher rates to compensate for this inconvenience.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Earnings and Shareholder Returns
Apollo recently beat earnings expectations with an EPS of $2.47. The firm has compounded shareholder returns at a 24% annualized rate over 15 years, and its three‑year net income CAGR of 53.74% places it in the top 25% of the industry.
Aggressive Capital Deployment and Strategic Acquisitions
Apollo is actively pursuing growth through acquisitions in aviation and equipment finance, and it has deployed capital aggressively during market dislocations. The recent exit from its stake in Intel’s Ireland chip factory returned capital that can be redeployed into retirement solutions and private credit.
Growth via Retirement Solutions Expansion
Apollo is pushing into retirement solutions, positioning itself to benefit from policy changes that allow retirement accounts to hold alternative assets. This expansion is viewed as a key growth catalyst for the firm.
Resilient Market Position in Private Credit
Apollo has shown resilience during volatile periods by deploying capital when public markets retreat. Its leadership in private credit, a growing funding source for infrastructure, combined with scale, origination strength, and a disciplined balance‑sheet approach, supports continued growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$130.30
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$99.56
+30.9% from the low
52-Week High
$157.28
-17.2% from the high
1 Month
+22.80%
3 Month
+3.35%
YTD
-11.1%
1 Year
-2.7%
3Y CAGR
+29.1%
5Y CAGR
+18.1%
10Y CAGR
+22.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.7x
vs 16.7x median
-12% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-17.3%
vs +17.9% median
-196% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APO APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $74.0B | 14.7x | -17.3% | — | Buy | +20.7% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.9B | 16.7x | +4.5% | — | Buy | +40.2% |
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.5B | 11.9x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +31.3% |
TPG TPG TPG Inc. | $17.5B | 16.5x | +23.6% | — | Buy | +42.5% |
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.4B | 20.2x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +44.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APO Dividend and Capital Return
APO returns 2.6% total yield, led by a 1.39% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
1.39%
Payout Ratio
24.7%
How APO Splits Its Return
Div 1.39%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 1.39%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.81
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.6%
5Y Div CAGR
-2.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$890M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
604M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.99 | +9.6% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.82 | +7.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $1.69 | +5.6% | 1.0% | 2.9% |
| 2022 | $1.60 | -23.8% | 1.7% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsAPO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $157, implying +20.7% from the current price of $130.
02What is the APO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APO is $157 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $186 (+42.7% from today), and the low-end target is $136 (+4.4%). The base case model target is $97.
03Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) stock overvalued in 2026?
APO trades at 14.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APO in 2026 are: (1) Capital Structure Vulnerability — Apollo’s retirement services business shows a critical capital structure risk, with an Altman Z‑Score of 0. (2) Market Volatility Impact — Fluctuations in market prices and trading volumes can cause rapid and substantial losses for APO shareholders. (3) Spread Compression in Retirement Services — In the Athene retirement segment, spread compression—where the gap between investment returns and cost of funds narrows—poses a profit risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APO will report consensus revenue of $21.6B (-17.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.94 (-14.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.6B in revenue.
06When does Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) report its next earnings?
Apollo Global Management, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.97 and revenue of $5.3B. Over recent quarters, APO has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Apollo Global Management, Inc. generate?
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. APO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($890M TTM).