Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ASTS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
7
analysts
3 bullish · 2 bearish · 7 covering ASTS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
2
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$104
+62.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.7B
ASTS price targets
Three scenarios for where ASTS stock could go
Current
~$64
Confidence
26 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
AST SpaceMobile is building the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to standard mobile phones without special hardware. It aims to generate revenue through subscription fees from mobile network operators and direct-to-consumer services, with its primary market being the billions of mobile users in areas with poor or no terrestrial coverage. The company's key advantage is its patented technology and exclusive spectrum rights that enable direct satellite-to-phone connectivity—a capability that could create a first-mover advantage in the emerging space-based cellular market.
Market Cap
$18.7B
Revenue TTM
$71M
Net Income TTM
-$342M
Net Margin
-482.2%
ASTS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
13%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-21.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.20/$-0.19
Revenue
$718000/$4M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.41/$-0.19
Revenue
$1M/$7M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.45/$-0.39
Revenue
$15M/$22M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.26/$-0.18
Revenue
$54M/$42M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.20/$-0.19 | -3.1% | $718000/$4M | -82.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.41/$-0.19 | -113.9% | $1M/$7M | -82.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.45/$-0.39 | -15.9% | $15M/$22M | -33.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.26/$-0.18 | -44.4% | $54M/$42M | +30.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$109M
+54.1% YoY
FY2
$236M
+115.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.30
+77.7% YoY
FY2
$-0.18
+39.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.1B
FCF Margin: -1602.2%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.23
Expected Revenue
$39M
ASTS beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASTS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $71M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
62.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 62.6% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ASTS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $18 — implies -73.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
73.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASTS
-47.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
290% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ASTS
-47.7x
vs
Technology
26.7x
278% discount
vs ASTS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-47.7x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Technology
22.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-47.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-290%
Technology
26.7x
-278%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
17.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Technology
19.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
263.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+8330%
Technology
2.4x
+10688%
5Y Avg
26.0x
+912%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ASTS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | -47.7x | 25.1x-290% | 26.7x-278% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 17.5x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 19.5x | — |
| Price/Sales | 263.6x | 3.1x+8330% | 2.4x+10688% | 26.0x+912% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
ASTS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASTS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for ASTS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$71M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1505.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
53.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-405.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-482.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-1602.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-47.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-12.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-21.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-47.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
293M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageASTS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Funding Needs and Dilution
ASTS requires significant capital to build and launch its satellite constellation. If costs rise or timelines extend, the company may need additional funding, potentially leading to share dilution or less favorable financing terms. The probability of bankruptcy is estimated at around 25.5%.
High Risk
Spectrum Access and Approvals
The company depends on spectrum access and approvals across multiple regions. Licensing, spectrum coordination, and cross-border telecom rules can slow rollout and limit where services can launch. Recent FCC decisions have created a challenging environment, including the rejection of requests for expanded spectrum access.
High Risk
Competition
The direct-to-device space is becoming increasingly crowded, with competition from established players like SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar. ASTS may struggle to compete if competitors launch faster, secure better partnerships, or win key spectrum resources.
Medium
Cash Burn
The company has a high operating expense to revenue ratio, indicating a significant cash burn rate. If commercial service activation at scale is delayed, this burn rate could become a larger concern.
Medium
Satellite Launch and Operations
ASTS relies on third-party launch providers, and any delays or failures in launches can impact its service deployment timeline. There have been instances of satellites entering unusable orbits, necessitating investigations and potentially delaying future missions.
Medium
Execution Risk
A significant portion of execution risk remains, particularly concerning constellation deployment, service activation, and achieving recurring revenue. Missed targets for satellite deployment and connectivity milestones have already impacted executive compensation payouts.
Lower
Market Demand
There is uncertainty about the demand for its service, specifically whether enough people will be willing to pay for supplemental coverage from space on top of their existing mobile bills.
Lower
Partnership Dependence
ASTS relies on partnerships with mobile network operators (MNOs) to market and sell its services. Issues with these partners could negatively affect revenues.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASTS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Revenue Growth and Contracted Commitments
AST SpaceMobile reported $70.9 million in revenue for 2025 and has guided for $150–200 million in revenue for 2026, backed by $1.2 billion in contracted commitments. This indicates a shift from a concept-based company to one demonstrating real revenue generation.
Strong Liquidity and Cash Position
The company ended 2025 with approximately $2.34 billion in cash and short-term investments, along with a high current ratio, providing ample funds for launches and infrastructure. This strong liquidity position supports the company's ambitious growth plans.
Satellite Deployment Progress
Despite setbacks like the BlueBird 7 satellite anomaly, AST SpaceMobile maintains its target of deploying 45–60 satellites by 2026. The company is continuing production, with several more satellites expected to be ready for shipment soon.
Potential for Profitability and Future Cash Flows
Projections suggest a move from losses in 2026 and 2027 to positive free cash flow by 2029, reaching $975.6 million in 2030. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates an intrinsic value of approximately $133 per share.
Strategic Partnerships and Regulatory Approvals
The company has secured deals with partners like TELUS in Canada and has received regulatory approval for deploying additional satellites. These partnerships and approvals are crucial for expanding its market reach and operational capabilities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASTS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.87
52W Range Position
39%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.47
+184.2% from the low
52-Week High
$129.89
-50.8% from the high
1 Month
-32.63%
3 Month
-31.52%
YTD
-23.5%
1 Year
+158.1%
3Y CAGR
+132.8%
5Y CAGR
+52.8%
10Y CAGR
+20.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASTS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 26.9x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+54.1%
vs +8.7% median
+523% above peer median
Net Margin
-482.2%
vs -4.0% median
-11905% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AST ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $18.7B | — | +54.1% | -482.2% | Buy | +62.3% |
GSA GSAT Globalstar, Inc. | $10.4B | — | +8.7% | -19.0% | Hold | -19.4% |
IRD IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $4.1B | 35.3x | +5.3% | 12.1% | Buy | -9.5% |
VSA VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $8.5B | — | +10.9% | -4.0% | Buy | -12.0% |
SPC SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | $155M | — | +352.6% | -17615.7% | Hold | +8.2% |
TMU TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | $210.3B | 18.5x | +5.2% | 11.6% | Buy | +30.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsASTS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $104, implying +62.3% from the current price of $64.
02What is the ASTS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASTS is $104 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $137 (+114.5% from today), and the low-end target is $46 (-28.6%).
03Is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for ASTS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASTS in 2026 are: (1) Funding Needs and Dilution — ASTS requires significant capital to build and launch its satellite constellation. (2) Spectrum Access and Approvals — The company depends on spectrum access and approvals across multiple regions. (3) Competition — The direct-to-device space is becoming increasingly crowded, with competition from established players like SpaceX's Starlink and Globalstar. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASTS will report consensus revenue of $109M (+54.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.30 (+77.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $236M in revenue.
06When does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) report its next earnings?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.23 and revenue of $39M. Over recent quarters, ASTS has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. generate?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) had a free cash outflow of $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1602.2%. ASTS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).