Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ASTS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
7
analysts
2 bullish · 2 bearish · 7 covering ASTS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$100
+24.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.1B
ASTS price targets
Three scenarios for where ASTS stock could go
Current
~$81
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
ASTS · NASDAQTechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
AST SpaceMobile is building the first space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly to standard mobile phones without special hardware. It aims to generate revenue through subscription fees from mobile network operators and direct-to-consumer services, with its primary market being the billions of mobile users in areas with poor or no terrestrial coverage. The company's key advantage is its patented technology and exclusive spectrum rights that enable direct satellite-to-phone connectivity—a capability that could create a first-mover advantage in the emerging space-based cellular market.
Market Cap
$24.1B
Revenue TTM
$85M
Net Income TTM
-$487M
Net Margin
-573.7%
ASTS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
11%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-31.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.41/$-0.19
Revenue
$1M/$7M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.45/$-0.39
Revenue
$15M/$22M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.26/$-0.18
Revenue
$54M/$42M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.66/$-0.26
Revenue
$15M/$39M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.41/$-0.19 | -113.9% | $1M/$7M | -82.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.45/$-0.39 | -15.9% | $15M/$22M | -33.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.26/$-0.18 | -44.4% | $54M/$42M | +30.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.66/$-0.26 | -158.8% | $15M/$39M | -62.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$97M
+14.2% YoY
FY2
$109M
+11.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.08
+95.5% YoY
FY2
$-0.08
-3.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.3B
FCF Margin: -1526.9%
Next Earnings
August 10, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.28
Expected Revenue
$35M
ASTS beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASTS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $71M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
62.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 62.6% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ASTS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASTS
-60.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
346% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ASTS
-60.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
308% discount
vs ASTS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-60.2x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Technology
22.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-60.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-346%
Technology
29.0x
-308%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
16.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Technology
19.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
339.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+10890%
Technology
2.4x
+13834%
5Y Avg
26.0x
+1205%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ASTS | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ASTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -60.2x | 24.4x-346% | 29.0x-308% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 16.6x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 19.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 339.8x | 3.1x+10890% | 2.4x+13834% | 26.0x+1205% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ASTS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASTS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for ASTS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$85M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1732.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-27.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-440.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-573.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.68
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-1526.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-12.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$97M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-24.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-16.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
299M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageASTS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation concerns
AST SpaceMobile trades at a $21B market cap on only $71M of FY25 revenue, indicating potential overvaluation.
High Risk
Financial runway risks
The company has a $3.9B war chest, but significant losses (e.g., BlueBird 7) raise questions about capital efficiency.
Medium
Execution risk
With service launch planned for 2026, there are uncertainties around timeline execution and technology deployment.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Faces competition from established players like Starlink in the direct-to-cell satellite market.
Medium
Regulatory hurdles
Operating in the satellite communications sector involves complex regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions.
Lower
Partner dependencies
Reliance on 50+ MNO partnerships introduces coordination risks and potential revenue-sharing challenges.
Lower
Technology risks
Unproven at scale, the BlueBird constellation technology may face technical hurdles in real-world deployment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASTS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Commercialization progress
The company is making significant strides toward commercialization, which is a key driver for investor optimism.
Strong funding runway
Despite losses, AST SpaceMobile has a robust funding runway, supporting its long-term growth plans.
Technology demonstrations
Successful technology demonstrations have boosted investor confidence and contributed to stock price appreciation.
Satellite-to-phone connectivity
Historic milestones in satellite-to-phone connectivity highlight the company's innovative capabilities and market potential.
Valuation expansion
Investors are optimistic about the company's valuation expansion as it scales and approaches commercialization.
Investor optimism
Rising investor optimism, driven by progress and milestones, has significantly impacted the stock price.
Balance sheet strength
A strengthened balance sheet provides financial stability and supports future growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASTS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$80.66
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$36.08
+123.6% from the low
52-Week High
$133.68
-39.7% from the high
1 Month
-7.11%
3 Month
-11.11%
YTD
-3.4%
1 Year
+81.9%
3Y CAGR
+136.2%
5Y CAGR
+50.3%
10Y CAGR
+23.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASTS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 28.4x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+14.2%
vs +7.3% median
+94% above peer median
Net Margin
-573.7%
vs -0.7% median
-77993% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AST ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $24.1B | — | +14.2% | -573.7% | Hold | +24.0% |
GSA GSAT Globalstar, Inc. | $10.4B | — | +9.3% | -4.0% | Hold | -12.9% |
IRD IRDM Iridium Communications Inc. | $4.7B | 39.4x | +7.5% | 12.1% | Buy | -4.1% |
VSA VSAT Viasat, Inc. | $8.8B | — | +7.3% | -0.7% | Buy | +19.8% |
SPC SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | $222M | — | 0.0% | -19781.3% | Hold | -15.7% |
TMU TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | $196.6B | 17.4x | +7.0% | 11.6% | Buy | +36.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsASTS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $100, implying +24.0% from the current price of $81.
02What is the ASTS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASTS is $100 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $108 (+33.9% from today), and the low-end target is $80 (-0.8%).
03Is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for ASTS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASTS in 2026 are: (1) Valuation concerns — AST SpaceMobile trades at a $21B market cap on only $71M of FY25 revenue, indicating potential overvaluation. (2) Financial runway risks — The company has a $3. (3) Execution risk — With service launch planned for 2026, there are uncertainties around timeline execution and technology deployment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASTS will report consensus revenue of $97M (+14.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.08 (+95.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $109M in revenue.
06When does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) report its next earnings?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-10. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.28 and revenue of $35M. Over recent quarters, ASTS has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AST SpaceMobile, Inc. generate?
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) had a free cash outflow of $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 1526.9%. ASTS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).