Upside case
Bull case
$269+38.6%
TMUS would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
54
analysts
45 bullish · 1 bearish · 54 covering TMUS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
45
Hold
8
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$254
+30.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$82 – $269
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
54
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $210.3B
TMUS price targets
Three scenarios for where TMUS stock could go
Current
~$194
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $194
Bear
$82
Base
$268
Bull
$269
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$268+37.9%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$82-58.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push TMUS down roughly 58% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
T-Mobile US, Inc.
TMUS · NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesDecember year-end
T-Mobile US is a major wireless telecommunications carrier providing mobile voice, messaging, and data services to consumers and businesses. It generates revenue primarily from postpaid and prepaid service plans—roughly 80% of total revenue—with the remainder coming from device sales and equipment installment plans. The company's key competitive advantage is its extensive 5G network—the largest in the U.S.—which it built through strategic spectrum acquisitions and the Sprint merger.
Market Cap
$210.3B
Revenue TTM
$90.5B
Net Income TTM
$10.5B
Net Margin
11.6%
TMUS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.84/$2.67
Revenue
$21.1B/$21.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.59/$2.40
Revenue
$22.0B/$21.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.88/$2.05
Revenue
$24.3B/$24.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.27/$2.01
Revenue
$23.1B/$23.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.84/$2.67 | +6.4% | $21.1B/$21.0B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.59/$2.40 | +7.9% | $22.0B/$21.9B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.88/$2.05 | -8.3% | $24.3B/$24.2B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.27/$2.01 | +12.9% | $23.1B/$23.0B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$95.2B
+5.2% YoY
FY2
$100.6B
+5.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.85
+13.4% YoY
FY2
$13.40
+23.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.7B
FCF Margin: 11.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TMUS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TMUS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $88.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Branded Postpaid Revenue
65.6%
+10.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Branded Postpaid Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 65.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.7% YoY.
TMUS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $168 — implies -14.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TMUS
20.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
20% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
TMUS
20.0x
vs
Communication Services
15.0x
+34% premium
vs TMUS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.0x
vs
5Y Average
36.6x
45% discount
Forward PE
18.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-3%
Communication Services
13.0x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-20%
Communication Services
15.0x
+34%
5Y Avg
36.6x
-45%
PEG Ratio
0.67x
S&P 500
1.72x
-61%
Communication Services
0.74x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-33%
Communication Services
8.4x
+21%
5Y Avg
11.7x
-13%
Price/FCF
20.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
-4%
Communication Services
11.8x
+73%
5Y Avg
24.3x
-16%
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Communication Services
1.0x
+144%
5Y Avg
2.5x
-3%
Dividend Yield
1.87%
S&P 500
1.87%
+0%
Communication Services
3.45%
-46%
5Y Avg
1.15%
+63%
| Metric | TMUS | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg TMUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.5x | 19.1x | 13.0x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.0x | 25.1x-20% | 15.0x+34% | 36.6x-45% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.67x | 1.72x-61% | 0.74x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.1x | 15.2x-33% | 8.4x+21% | 11.7x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 20.3x | 21.1x | 11.8x+73% | 24.3x-16% |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 1.0x+144% | 2.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.87% | 1.87% | 3.45% | 1.15% |
TMUS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTMUS Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TMUS earns 20.4% operating margin on regulated earnings, 1.9% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$90.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.57
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
20.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$116.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.9× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.6%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
4.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$10.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageTMUS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Levels
T‑Mobile carries a substantial amount of debt, limiting operational flexibility and increasing vulnerability to rising interest rates. Higher debt servicing costs could squeeze margins and constrain future growth investments.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Threats
The company has experienced cyberattacks and faces ongoing threats that could disrupt operations, cause financial losses, and damage reputation. Continuous investment in cybersecurity is essential to mitigate these risks.
Medium
Fiber Infrastructure Gap
Compared to competitors, T‑Mobile has under‑invested in fiber, which could negatively impact its 2026 earnings‑per‑share and free‑cash‑flow guidance. A lack of high‑speed backhaul may limit service quality and network expansion.
Medium
Intense Competition
Rivals aggressively bundle services and redeploy capital, while cable operators use free wireless lines to offset broadband losses. This competitive pressure could erode pricing power and compress margins.
Lower
Insider Selling
Key executives have engaged in significant open‑market selling, which may signal negative insider sentiment. While not directly impacting financials, it could influence investor perception and stock price volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TMUS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Financial Performance & Growth
T-Mobile has improved operational efficiency, reflected in a rising Return on Capital (ROC). Earnings are projected to rise significantly next year, and revenue continues to grow year-over-year. Free cash flow growth places the company in the top 25% of its industry.
5G Network Leadership & AI Innovation
The company leads the U.S. 5G market and is partnering on AI‑powered 5G infrastructure projects. These initiatives position T-Mobile to capture higher‑value connectivity services and emerging technology opportunities.
Broadband Expansion as Growth Catalyst
T-Mobile is actively expanding its broadband portfolio, adding new services and coverage. This expansion is expected to drive additional revenue streams and diversify the company’s offerings.
Superior Customer Retention
T-Mobile outperforms peers in customer retention rates, underscoring a strong competitive advantage. High retention supports stable subscriber base and recurring revenue.
Sustainable Dividend Initiation
The company has launched a cash dividend, deemed sustainable given its payout ratio. This signals financial strength and provides a return to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TMUS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$194.35
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$181.36
+7.2% from the low
52-Week High
$261.56
-25.7% from the high
1 Month
-2.15%
3 Month
-3.72%
YTD
-2.6%
1 Year
-21.7%
3Y CAGR
+10.6%
5Y CAGR
+7.7%
10Y CAGR
+17.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TMUS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.5x
vs 6.7x median
+177% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.2%
vs +0.4% median
+1302% above peer median
Net Margin
11.6%
vs 9.4% median
+24% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMU TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | $210.3B | 18.5x | +5.2% | 11.6% | Buy | +30.7% |
VZ VZ Verizon Communications Inc. | $199.7B | 9.6x | +2.6% | 12.4% | Hold | +8.9% |
T T AT&T Inc. | $181.1B | 11.2x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Hold | +13.5% |
LUM LUMN Lumen Technologies, Inc. | $9.5B | — | -8.5% | -14.3% | Hold | -23.3% |
CAB CABO Cable One, Inc. | $359M | 2.7x | -3.0% | -17.7% | Hold | +26.4% |
CHT CHTR Charter Communications, Inc. | $20.0B | 3.8x | +0.4% | 9.4% | Buy | +75.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TMUS Dividend and Capital Return
TMUS returns capital mainly through $10.0B/year in buybacks (4.7% buyback yield), with a modest 1.87% dividend — combining for 6.6% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.7%
Dividend Yield
1.87%
Payout Ratio
37.5%
How TMUS Splits Its Return
Div 1.87%
Buyback 4.7%
Dividend 1.87%Buybacks 4.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$10.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
51M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
At 4.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.66 | +29.3% | 4.3% | 6.1% |
| 2024 | $2.83 | +335.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $0.65 | — | 6.8% | 7.2% |
| 2013 | $4.06 | — | 0.0% | 0.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTMUS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 54 analysts covering the stock, 45 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $254, implying +30.7% from the current price of $194. The bear case scenario is $82 and the bull case is $269.
02What is the TMUS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TMUS is $254 based on 54 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $310 (+59.5% from today), and the low-end target is $220 (+13.2%). The base case model target is $268.
03Is T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) stock overvalued in 2026?
TMUS trades at 18.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TMUS in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Levels — T‑Mobile carries a substantial amount of debt, limiting operational flexibility and increasing vulnerability to rising interest rates. (2) Cybersecurity Threats — The company has experienced cyberattacks and faces ongoing threats that could disrupt operations, cause financial losses, and damage reputation. (3) Fiber Infrastructure Gap — Compared to competitors, T‑Mobile has under‑invested in fiber, which could negatively impact its 2026 earnings‑per‑share and free‑cash‑flow guidance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is T-Mobile US, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TMUS will report consensus revenue of $95.2B (+5.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.85 (+13.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $100.6B in revenue.
06When does T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TMUS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does T-Mobile US, Inc. generate?
T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) generated $10.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.8%. TMUS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($10.0B TTM).