Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AUR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
7
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 7 covering AUR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$12
+86.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.6B
AUR price targets
Three scenarios for where AUR stock could go
Current
~$6
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Aurora Innovation, Inc.
AUR · NASDAQTechnologyInformation Technology ServicesDecember year-end
Aurora Innovation develops autonomous driving technology — specifically the Aurora Driver platform — for passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and trucks. The company generates revenue primarily through technology development partnerships and aims to monetize via future commercial deployment of its self-driving systems — though it remains pre-revenue as it continues R&D. Its key advantage lies in its comprehensive software stack and sensor suite designed for multiple vehicle types, along with partnerships with major automotive players.
Market Cap
$12.6B
Revenue TTM
$4M
Net Income TTM
-$831M
Net Margin
-20775.0%
AUR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.12
Revenue
$1M/$1M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.12
Revenue
$1M/$1M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.12
Revenue
$1M/$2M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.11/$-0.12
Revenue
$1M/$966800
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.11/$-0.12 | +8.3% | $1M/$1M | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.11/$-0.12 | +8.3% | $1M/$1M | -32.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.12/$-0.12 | +0.0% | $1M/$2M | -41.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.11/$-0.12 | +5.0% | $1M/$966800 | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4M
0.0% YoY
FY2
$4M
+1.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.00
+99.9% YoY
FY2
$-0.00
— YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$646M
FCF Margin: -16150.0%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.12
Expected Revenue
$2M
AUR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AUR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AUR
-14.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.6x
159% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
AUR
-14.6x
vs
Technology
28.3x
151% discount
vs AUR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-14.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Technology
21.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-14.6x
S&P 500
24.6x
-159%
Technology
28.3x
-151%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.67x
—
Technology
1.46x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.1x
—
Technology
16.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.9x
—
Technology
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
4194.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+134872%
Technology
2.5x
+170999%
5Y Avg
20.3x
+20523%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AUR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg AUR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 21.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | -14.6x | 24.6x-159% | 28.3x-151% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.67x | 1.46x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.1x | 16.5x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.9x | 19.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 4194.4x | 3.1x+134872% | 2.5x+170999% | 20.3x+20523% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.15% | — |
AUR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAUR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for AUR are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
4075.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-23350.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-20775.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$646M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-16150.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-35.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-35.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$222M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$65M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-39.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-35.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.0B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAUR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Slow scaling
Aurora Innovation faces challenges in scaling its autonomous trucking operations, which could hinder growth.
High Risk
Cash burn risk
The company is experiencing significant cash burn, raising concerns about financial sustainability.
High Risk
Dilution risk
There is a risk of shareholder dilution as Aurora Innovation may need to raise additional capital.
Medium
Competitive pressure
Rivals in the autonomous vehicle space are accelerating, posing a threat to Aurora's market position.
Medium
Low revenue
Aurora Innovation currently generates minimal revenue, which may impact investor confidence.
Lower
Volatility ahead of earnings
Stock volatility persists as investors react to earnings reports and commercial launch progress.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AUR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong management team
The bullish thesis highlights Aurora Innovation's strong management as a key driver for future success.
Vast addressable market
Aurora Innovation is positioned to capitalize on a large and growing market opportunity.
Leadership in autonomous trucking
The company is recognized as a leader in the autonomous trucking sector, a critical growth area.
Bullish analyst coverage
Conch Shell Capital and others have published bullish theses on Aurora Innovation, emphasizing its potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AUR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$6.42
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$3.60
+78.3% from the low
52-Week High
$8.56
-25.0% from the high
1 Month
-8.29%
3 Month
+46.58%
YTD
+65.9%
1 Year
+18.5%
3Y CAGR
+39.1%
5Y CAGR
-8.5%
10Y CAGR
-4.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AUR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 28.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
0.0%
vs +9.8% median
-100% below peer median
Net Margin
-20775.0%
vs -204.0% median
-10085% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUR AUR Aurora Innovation, Inc. | $12.6B | — | 0.0% | -20775.0% | Buy | +86.9% |
MBL MBLY Mobileye Global Inc. | $6.5B | 28.7x | +4.2% | -204.0% | Buy | +67.8% |
LAZ LAZR Luminar Technologies, Inc. | $112M | — | -12.4% | -572.8% | — | — |
INV INVZ Innoviz Technologies Ltd. | $138M | — | +14.3% | -181.5% | Buy | +863.9% |
OUS OUST Ouster, Inc. | $2.9B | — | +10.4% | -30.1% | Hold | +24.0% |
LID LIDR AEye, Inc. | $66M | — | +9.8% | -12698.9% | Hold | +745.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAUR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $12, implying +86.9% from the current price of $6.
02What is the AUR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AUR is $12 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $18 (+180.4% from today), and the low-end target is $5 (-22.1%).
03Is Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for AUR is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AUR in 2026 are: (1) Slow scaling — Aurora Innovation faces challenges in scaling its autonomous trucking operations, which could hinder growth. (2) Cash burn risk — The company is experiencing significant cash burn, raising concerns about financial sustainability. (3) Dilution risk — There is a risk of shareholder dilution as Aurora Innovation may need to raise additional capital. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Aurora Innovation, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AUR will report consensus revenue of $4M (0.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.00 (+99.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4M in revenue.
06When does Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) report its next earnings?
Aurora Innovation, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.12 and revenue of $2M. Over recent quarters, AUR has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Aurora Innovation, Inc. generate?
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) had a free cash outflow of $646M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16150.0%. AUR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).