Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)
Valuation Overview•Is Aurora Innovation, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 46/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
AUR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($65M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-64.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-23350.0%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0M | — | -64.7% | — | — | |
| EBITDA | -$244.0M | — | +21.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$223.0M | -9.1% | +22.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.11 | +4.3% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$184.0M | +5.1% | -5.4% | -25.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 4075.0% | -466.7% | -704.1% | -503.3% |
| Operating Margin | -23350.0% | -30033.3% | -11216.1% | -8556.9% |
| Net Margin | -20775.0% | -27200.0% | -10218.2% | -7783.6% |
| FCF Margin | -16150.0% | -20400.0% | -7304.9% | -5604.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.12 | $-0.11 | +5.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.12 | $-0.12 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.12 | $-0.11 | +8.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.12 | $-0.11 | +8.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.12 | -4.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.11 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.11 | $-0.13 | -18.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.13 | $-0.12 | +7.7% |
Total return is +14.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -6.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +61.0% | +53.7% | — |
| 1Y | +14.3% | -6.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +41.5% | +19.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -9.0% | -20.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -4.6% | -18.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) valuation, health, and returns.
Aurora Innovation, Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -99.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $0.04)
Aurora Innovation, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.04 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $12.00 (implying +92.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Aurora Innovation, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 46/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 32.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -35.0%.
Aurora Innovation, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Aurora Innovation, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved N/A 1Y revenue growth and +4.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -64.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 7 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +92.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Aurora Innovation, Inc. include: -42.5% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.63x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.63x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.