Upside case
Bull case
$268+2022.2%
AXIA would need investors to value it at roughly 65x earnings — about 61x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
5
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 5 covering AXIA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$35 – $268
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
3.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $28.4B
AXIA price targets
Three scenarios for where AXIA stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $13
Bear
$35
Base
$96
Bull
$268
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$96+657.2%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$35+174.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push AXIA down roughly 175% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AXIA Energia S.A.
AXIA · NYSEUtilitiesRenewable UtilitiesDecember year-end
AXIA Energia is a Brazilian electric utility that generates, transmits, and sells electricity across Brazil. It earns revenue primarily from electricity sales to distributors and large consumers — with generation contributing roughly 70% and transmission about 30% of total revenue. The company's key advantage is its massive hydroelectric portfolio — Brazil's largest — which provides low-cost, renewable baseload power and significant operational scale.
Market Cap
$28.4B
Revenue TTM
$40.6B
Net Income TTM
$6.7B
Net Margin
16.6%
AXIA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+190.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q1 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.18
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.11/$0.18
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.18
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.18
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $0.19/$0.18 | +7.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11/$0.18 | +531.0% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.19/$0.18 | +7.9% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.18 | +15.2% | $1.9B/$1.9B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.7B
+0.4% YoY
FY2
$40.6B
-0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.19
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$3.45
+8.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$8.9B
FCF Margin: 22.0%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.29
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
AXIA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AXIA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $40 — implies +219.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
219.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AXIA
27.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+9% premium
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
AXIA
27.5x
vs
Utilities
19.7x
+39% premium
vs AXIA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.5x
vs
5Y Average
4.0x
+580% premium
Forward PE
3.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-84%
Utilities
17.2x
-82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+9%
Utilities
19.7x
+39%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+580%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Utilities
1.73x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-7%
Utilities
11.5x
+22%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+147%
Price/FCF
15.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
-26%
Utilities
15.4x
+2%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+581%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+8%
Utilities
2.2x
+55%
5Y Avg
0.5x
+581%
Dividend Yield
8.70%
S&P 500
1.88%
+363%
Utilities
3.07%
+183%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AXIA | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg AXIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 3.0x | 19.1x-84% | 17.2x-82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.5x | 25.2x | 19.7x+39% | 4.0x+580% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.73x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.3x | 11.5x+22% | 5.7x+147% |
| Price/FCF | 15.7x | 21.3x-26% | 15.4x | 2.3x+581% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 2.2x+55% | 0.5x+581% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.70% | 1.88% | 3.07% | — |
AXIA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAXIA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AXIA earns 35.6% operating margin on regulated earnings, 8.7% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$40.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.99
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
35.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$16.4B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$60.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.8× FCF
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.7%
Dividend
8.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$37M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.42
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
185.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageAXIA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt Levels
AXIA has a significant amount of debt totaling $14.36 billion, while cash reserves stand at only $4.55 billion, resulting in a net debt position of -$9.81 billion. This high leverage could pose substantial financial risks, particularly in adverse market conditions.
High Risk
Revenue Growth Challenges
Despite generating robust revenue of $40.18 billion, AXIA has faced a stark lack of growth, with both three-year and five-year revenue growth metrics at -100%. This indicates severe operational challenges that could impact future profitability.
High Risk
Profitability Decline
AXIA's net profit margins have significantly declined from 25.8% to 15.9% year-over-year, exacerbated by a one-off loss of R$4.1 billion. This trend raises concerns about the company's ability to maintain profitability in the future.
Medium
Regulatory Hurdles
New regulatory changes are impacting AXIA's market operations, raising concerns among stakeholders about compliance and operational efficiency. These hurdles could lead to increased costs and operational delays.
Medium
Political and Economic Risks
Brazil's high fiscal deficit, projected at around 8.3% of GDP in 2025, coupled with interest rates exceeding inflation, poses significant economic risks for AXIA. Political instability could further exacerbate these challenges.
Medium
Insider Selling Activity
There has been significant insider selling, with director-linked funds offloading over 4.4 million shares, amounting to approximately $54.7 million. This could signal a lack of confidence in the company's future prospects.
Lower
Delisting Plans
AXIA's plans to delist its ADRs from the New York Stock Exchange and focus on trading on Brazil's B3 may lead to reassessment of its valuation and downside risks. This transition could impact liquidity and investor sentiment.
Lower
Weather Dependence
AXIA's operations are highly dependent on weather conditions, particularly droughts that can adversely affect hydroelectric power generation. Such weather-related risks could impact the company's electricity production capabilities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AXIA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance and Growth
AXIA reported impressive Q4 2025 results, maintaining its profitability outlook through a new pricing strategy and raising investment forecasts. The company's revenue has seen an increase, and while earnings saw a decrease in 2025, there's a positive outlook for future profitability.
Strategic Repositioning and Expansion
The company has rebranded to AXIA Energia and is increasing investments in power transmission, aligning with the utilities sector rally driven by surging electricity demand. AXIA is also expanding its stake in ISA Energia and has plans to modernize its hydropower plants.
AI Infrastructure Potential
AXIA is increasingly positioned as key energy infrastructure for AI development in Brazil, with ongoing talks with hyperscalers and unmatched transmission infrastructure. The demand for electricity from data centers is a significant growth driver.
Discounted Valuation
Despite a significant rally, AXIA trades at a discount to its regional peers on EV/EBITDA and price-to-book multiples. For example, its forward EV/EBITDA is trading between 8x and 9x, while peers like NextEra, Constellation Energy, and Southern Company trade at higher multiples.
Transition to Free Market Pricing
The transition from regulated to free market pricing is driving margin expansion, with unit margins significantly improving. This allows AXIA to sell energy at higher market prices, increasing profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AXIA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$12.62
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$7.06
+78.7% from the low
52-Week High
$13.54
-6.8% from the high
1 Month
+10.12%
3 Month
+14.10%
YTD
+36.4%
1 Year
+23.4%
3Y CAGR
+7.2%
5Y CAGR
+4.3%
10Y CAGR
-23.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AXIA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
3.0x
vs 0.1x median
+4002% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.4%
vs +19.5% median
-98% below peer median
Net Margin
16.6%
vs 24.6% median
-33% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXI AXIA AXIA Energia S.A. | $28.4B | 3.0x | +0.4% | 16.6% | Buy | — |
PAM PAM Pampa Energía S.A. | $4.5B | 9.3x | +10.0% | 18.4% | Buy | +16.3% |
EDN EDN Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima | $530M | 0.1x | +10.1% | 7.8% | Hold | — |
TGS TGS Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A. | $2.2B | 0.0x | +44.8% | 24.6% | Buy | — |
CEP CEPU Central Puerto S.A. | $2.3B | 0.0x | +19.5% | 29.4% | Hold | -21.7% |
VIS VIST Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. | $7.2B | 7.5x | +42.8% | 25.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AXIA Dividend and Capital Return
AXIA returns 8.7% total yield, led by a 8.70% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
8.70%
Payout Ratio
1.9%
How AXIA Splits Its Return
Div 8.70%
Dividend 8.70%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.42
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
86.1%
5Y Div CAGR
23.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$37M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.83 | +313.8% | 0.2% | 59.3% |
| 2024 | $0.20 | +352.8% | — | — |
| 2023 | $0.04 | -65.6% | — | — |
| 2022 | $0.13 | -68.8% | — | — |
| 2021 | $0.41 | +44.1% | — | — |
FAQ
6 questionsAXIA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $35 and the bull case is $268.
02Is AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) stock overvalued in 2026?
AXIA trades at 3.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AXIA in 2026 are: (1) Debt Levels — AXIA has a significant amount of debt totaling $14. (2) Revenue Growth Challenges — Despite generating robust revenue of $40. (3) Profitability Decline — AXIA's net profit margins have significantly declined from 25. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is AXIA Energia S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AXIA will report consensus revenue of $40.7B (+0.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.19 (+6.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.6B in revenue.
05When does AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) report its next earnings?
AXIA Energia S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.29 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, AXIA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does AXIA Energia S.A. generate?
AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) generated $8.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.0%. AXIA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.7% yield) and share repurchases ($37M TTM).