AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA)
Valuation Overview•Is AXIA Energia S.A. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 62/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
AXIA demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (19.5% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 37.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.5B | +2.7% | +6.6% | +10.2% | +2.5% | |
| EBITDA | $6.8B | — | +25.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $2.6B | -36.8% | +21.7% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.13 | -49.6% | +19.5% | -11.1% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$2.0B | +139.9% | — | +17.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 89.4% | 86.0% | 86.4% | 82.5% |
| Operating Margin | 37.5% | 30.9% | 27.9% | 30.1% |
| Net Margin | 21.9% | 18.0% | 16.2% | 20.1% |
| FCF Margin | 7.6% | 14.0% | -5.0% | -1.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.29 | $0.14 | -51.4% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.18 | $0.20 | +15.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $0.19 | +7.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $1.11 | +531.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $0.19 | +7.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.18 | $0.20 | +15.2% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.09 | $0.60 | +583.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.05 | $0.60 | +1019.0% |
Total return is +9.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -13.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +13.3% | +5.9% | — |
| 1Y | +9.0% | -13.3% | +6.5% |
| 3YCAGR | +4.0% | -16.7% | +10.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +2.7% | -9.9% | +11.7% |
| 10YCAGR | -23.9% | -37.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about AXIA Energia S.A. (AXIA) valuation, health, and returns.
AXIA Energia S.A. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $8.98)
AXIA Energia S.A. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $8.98 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $18.57. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
AXIA Energia S.A. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 62/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.6%.
AXIA Energia S.A. pays a 10.0% dividend yield, covered by a 186% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
AXIA Energia S.A.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +2.7% 1Y revenue growth and -49.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for AXIA Energia S.A. include: -43.1% 1-year max drawdown, stretched payout ratio. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.17x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.