Upside case
Bull case
$382-9.9%
The bull case prices AXON at 50x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering AXON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$652
+54.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$182 – $382
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
55.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.1B
AXON price targets
Three scenarios for where AXON stock could go
Current
~$423
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $423
Bear
$182
Base
$290
Bull
$382
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$290-31.6%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$182-56.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 31x multiple contraction could push AXON down roughly 57% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
AXON · NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Axon Enterprise is a public safety technology company that provides law enforcement agencies with non-lethal weapons, body cameras, and digital evidence management systems. It generates revenue primarily through hardware sales of TASER devices and body cameras (~60% of revenue) and recurring software subscriptions for its cloud-based evidence platform (~40%). The company's competitive moat comes from its integrated ecosystem—once agencies adopt Axon's body cameras, they become locked into its proprietary evidence management software, creating high switching costs.
Market Cap
$34.1B
Revenue TTM
$3.0B
Net Income TTM
$206M
Net Margin
6.9%
AXON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+27.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.12/$1.45
Revenue
$669M/$641M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.17/$1.52
Revenue
$711M/$705M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.15/$1.60
Revenue
$797M/$756M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.61/$1.60
Revenue
$807M/$779M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.12/$1.45 | +46.2% | $669M/$641M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.17/$1.52 | -23.0% | $711M/$705M | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.15/$1.60 | +34.4% | $797M/$756M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.61/$1.60 | +0.6% | $807M/$779M | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.4B
+14.7% YoY
FY2
$4.2B
+21.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.83
+93.0% YoY
FY2
$6.44
+33.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$20M
FCF Margin: 0.7%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.83
Expected Revenue
$876M
AXON beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AXON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Software And Sensors Segment
43.3%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
82.9%
+29.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Software And Sensors Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 43.3% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 82.9%, up 29.8% YoY.
AXON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $8 — implies -98.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
98.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AXON
280.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1047% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AXON
280.4x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+996% premium
vs AXON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
280.4x
vs
5Y Average
105.5x
+166% premium
Forward PE
55.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+193%
Industrials
21.2x
+160%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
280.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1047%
Industrials
25.6x
+996%
5Y Avg
105.5x
+166%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1651.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+10758%
Industrials
13.9x
+11788%
5Y Avg
99.7x
+1557%
Price/FCF
454.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+2095%
Industrials
20.0x
+2167%
5Y Avg
125.0x
+264%
Price/Sales
12.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+297%
Industrials
1.6x
+686%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-21%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AXON | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AXON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 55.1x | 18.8x+193% | 21.2x+160% | — |
| Trailing PE | 280.4x | 24.4x+1047% | 25.6x+996% | 105.5x+166% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1651.5x | 15.2x+10758% | 13.9x+11788% | 99.7x+1557% |
| Price/FCF | 454.4x | 20.7x+2095% | 20.0x+2167% | 125.0x+264% |
| Price/Sales | 12.3x | 3.1x+297% | 1.6x+686% | 15.5x-21% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
AXON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAXON Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for AXON are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+34.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$20M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$709M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
36.3× FCF
~36.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-1.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
81M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAXON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Profitability pressure
Surging revenue was offset by a sharp profitability hit and hefty costs from new acquisitions, indicating margin compression.
Medium
Post-growth digestion
The company may be entering a post-growth phase, leading to a pullback as earnings recalibrate investor expectations.
Medium
Acquisition integration risks
Hefty costs from new acquisitions could strain financials and operational efficiency if integration proves challenging.
Lower
Market saturation
As Axon transitions into a mature public safety technology platform, growth may slow due to market saturation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AXON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue growth
Axon Enterprise has demonstrated robust revenue growth, as highlighted by RadnorCapital, contributing to a 10.12% stock price appreciation post-coverage.
International and federal expansion
The company is expanding its reach internationally and within federal markets, which is a key driver for future growth.
AI-era product adoption
Axon's products are gaining traction in the AI era, with strong adoption rates fueling its bullish thesis.
Record enterprise bookings
The company has achieved record enterprise bookings, indicating strong demand for its solutions.
End-to-end drone solutions
Axon offers comprehensive drone solutions for public safety, including aerial threat protection and drones as first responders (DFR).
Robust Q4 results
The company's strong Q4 performance has been a catalyst for stock price appreciation, as noted in recent analyses.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AXON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$423.40
52W Range Position
15%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$339.01
+24.9% from the low
52-Week High
$885.92
-52.2% from the high
1 Month
+6.02%
3 Month
-16.72%
YTD
-24.9%
1 Year
-45.1%
3Y CAGR
+27.4%
5Y CAGR
+22.0%
10Y CAGR
+33.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AXON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
55.1x
vs 20.9x median
+163% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.7%
vs +6.3% median
+134% above peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs -21.8% median
+132% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXO AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $34.1B | 55.1x | +14.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +54.0% |
MSA MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $6.4B | 18.5x | +4.9% | 15.2% | Buy | +35.2% |
VNE VNET VNET Group, Inc. | $2.4B | — | +10.6% | -21.8% | Buy | +117.5% |
MSI MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $65.6B | 23.3x | +6.3% | 17.6% | Buy | +28.0% |
DGL DGLY Digital Ally, Inc. | $2M | — | -20.5% | -59.7% | — | — |
WRA WRAP Wrap Technologies, Inc. | $69M | — | +32.2% | -298.6% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAXON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $652, implying +54.0% from the current price of $423. The bear case scenario is $182 and the bull case is $382.
02What is the AXON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AXON is $652 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $820 (+93.7% from today), and the low-end target is $440 (+3.9%). The base case model target is $290.
03Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock overvalued in 2026?
AXON trades at 55.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AXON in 2026 are: (1) Profitability pressure — Surging revenue was offset by a sharp profitability hit and hefty costs from new acquisitions, indicating margin compression. (2) Post-growth digestion — The company may be entering a post-growth phase, leading to a pullback as earnings recalibrate investor expectations. (3) Acquisition integration risks — Hefty costs from new acquisitions could strain financials and operational efficiency if integration proves challenging. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AXON will report consensus revenue of $3.4B (+14.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.83 (+93.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.2B in revenue.
06When does Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) report its next earnings?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $1.83 and revenue of $876M. Over recent quarters, AXON has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Axon Enterprise, Inc. generate?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) generated $20M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.7%. AXON returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).