Upside case
Bull case
$8947+2218.6%
AXON would need investors to value it at roughly 1152x earnings — about 1102x more generous than today's 50x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 21 covering AXON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$727
+88.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $8947
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
49.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.0B
AXON price targets
Three scenarios for where AXON stock could go
Current
~$386
Confidence
79 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $386
Base
$386
Bull
$8947
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$386+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing AXON — at roughly 50x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
AXON · NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Axon Enterprise is a public safety technology company that provides law enforcement agencies with non-lethal weapons, body cameras, and digital evidence management systems. It generates revenue primarily through hardware sales of TASER devices and body cameras (~60% of revenue) and recurring software subscriptions for its cloud-based evidence platform (~40%). The company's competitive moat comes from its integrated ecosystem—once agencies adopt Axon's body cameras, they become locked into its proprietary evidence management software, creating high switching costs.
Market Cap
$31.0B
Revenue TTM
$2.8B
Net Income TTM
$125M
Net Margin
4.5%
AXON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+34.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.41/$1.27
Revenue
$604M/$586M
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.12/$1.45
Revenue
$669M/$641M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.17/$1.52
Revenue
$711M/$705M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.15/$1.60
Revenue
$797M/$756M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.41/$1.27 | +11.0% | $604M/$586M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.12/$1.45 | +46.2% | $669M/$641M | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.17/$1.52 | -23.0% | $711M/$705M | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.15/$1.60 | +34.4% | $797M/$756M | +5.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+31.5% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+32.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.36
+248.9% YoY
FY2
$5.42
+24.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$75M
FCF Margin: 2.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.60
Expected Revenue
$779M
AXON beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
AXON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
82.9%
+29.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 82.9%, up 29.8% YoY.
AXON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $198 — implies -50.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
50.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AXON
253.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+906% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AXON
253.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+880% premium
vs AXON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
253.9x
vs
5Y Average
105.5x
+141% premium
Forward PE
49.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+161%
Industrials
20.8x
+139%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
253.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+906%
Industrials
25.9x
+880%
5Y Avg
105.5x
+141%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
399.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+2524%
Industrials
13.7x
+2817%
5Y Avg
99.7x
+301%
Price/FCF
412.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1836%
Industrials
21.0x
+1865%
5Y Avg
125.0x
+230%
Price/Sales
11.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+255%
Industrials
1.6x
+595%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-28%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Industrials
1.25%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | AXON | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AXON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 49.7x | 19.1x+161% | 20.8x+139% | — |
| Trailing PE | 253.9x | 25.2x+906% | 25.9x+880% | 105.5x+141% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 399.4x | 15.2x+2524% | 13.7x+2817% | 99.7x+301% |
| Price/FCF | 412.2x | 21.3x+1836% | 21.0x+1865% | 125.0x+230% |
| Price/Sales | 11.1x | 3.1x+255% | 1.6x+595% | 15.5x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.25% | — |
AXON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAXON Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for AXON are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+33.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
0.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$75M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
0.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$709M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.4× FCF
~9.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (0.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
100M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageAXON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal Risks
Antitrust investigations and potential litigation threaten Axon’s business model. If regulators force changes such as separating hardware and software sales, monetization and profit margins could be adversely impacted.
High Risk
Financial & Valuation Concerns
Axon’s stock is considered overvalued by some analysts, trading at a premium to historical averages and competitors. This high valuation reflects significant investor expectations for future growth, which could lead to a price decline if those expectations are not met.
Medium
Dependence on Government Funding
A significant portion of Axon’s revenue comes from government agencies, making the company susceptible to changes in public budgeting and funding levels. Any reduction in government contracts could materially impact revenue streams.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Axon faces competition, particularly from Motorola, which could limit its short‑term growth potential. Competitive dynamics may erode market share and compress margins.
Medium
Market Volatility & Macro Factors
Axon’s stock has experienced significant drawdowns during market crises, sometimes more severe than the broader market. Broader market conversations about growth stocks and risk management also influence its performance.
Lower
Technological & Operational Risks
The introduction of new technologies, including AI, brings operational and legal risks. The increasing volume of data from body cameras creates a “data tax” that can slow response times and increase operational risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AXON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership & Integrated Ecosystem
Axon dominates the public safety tech space, holding a near‑monopoly on TASER products while expanding into body cameras, dash cams, and its Evidence.com cloud platform. The bundled hardware‑software model locks in customers with multi‑year licenses, fueling recurring revenue.
Robust SaaS Recurring Revenue
The company’s shift to a Software‑as‑a‑Service model has pushed Annual Recurring Revenue past $1.35 billion, delivering high‑margin, predictable income streams that support continued growth.
AI‑Driven Product Innovation
Axon is integrating AI tools such as Draft One, which has seen rapid adoption, enhancing field efficiency and continuous intelligence capabilities that are expected to drive future revenue.
Strong Financial Growth & Backlog
Full‑year 2025 revenue reached $2.78 billion, up 33% YoY, backed by a $14.4 billion contracted backlog and a projected $6 billion multi‑year target by 2028.
International Expansion & TAM Growth
By actively expanding its international presence, Axon broadens its total addressable market, positioning the company for long‑term growth beyond domestic law‑enforcement contracts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AXON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$385.86
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$339.01
+13.8% from the low
52-Week High
$885.92
-56.4% from the high
1 Month
-6.59%
3 Month
-6.84%
YTD
-31.5%
1 Year
-35.9%
3Y CAGR
+20.3%
5Y CAGR
+24.1%
10Y CAGR
+35.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AXON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
49.7x
vs 25.8x median
+92% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+31.5%
vs +5.0% median
+531% above peer median
Net Margin
4.5%
vs -6.0% median
+175% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AXO AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $31.0B | 49.7x | +31.5% | 4.5% | Buy | +88.3% |
MSA MSA MSA Safety Incorporated | $6.7B | 20.0x | +5.0% | 15.2% | Buy | +35.1% |
VNE VNET VNET Group, Inc. | $2.6B | 34.9x | +14.1% | -6.0% | Buy | +161.4% |
MSI MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $71.9B | 25.8x | +8.5% | 18.4% | Buy | +11.0% |
DGL DGLY Digital Ally, Inc. | $2M | — | -20.5% | -59.7% | — | — |
WRA WRAP Wrap Technologies, Inc. | $83M | — | +3.7% | -221.2% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsAXON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $727, implying +88.3% from the current price of $386.
02What is the AXON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AXON is $727 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $820 (+112.5% from today), and the low-end target is $625 (+62.0%). The base case model target is $386.
03Is Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock overvalued in 2026?
AXON trades at 49.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AXON in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Legal Risks — Antitrust investigations and potential litigation threaten Axon’s business model. (2) Financial & Valuation Concerns — Axon’s stock is considered overvalued by some analysts, trading at a premium to historical averages and competitors. (3) Dependence on Government Funding — A significant portion of Axon’s revenue comes from government agencies, making the company susceptible to changes in public budgeting and funding levels. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AXON will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+31.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.36 (+248.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) report its next earnings?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.60 and revenue of $779M. Over recent quarters, AXON has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Axon Enterprise, Inc. generate?
Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) generated $75M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.7%. AXON returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).