Upside case
Bull case
$626+58.5%
MSI would need investors to value it at roughly 37x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
24 bullish · 4 bearish · 34 covering MSI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
24
Hold
6
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$506
+28.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$300 – $626
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $65.6B
MSI price targets
Three scenarios for where MSI stock could go
Current
~$395
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $395
Bear
$300
Base
$475
Bull
$626
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$475+20.3%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$300-24.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push MSI down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
MSI · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
Motorola Solutions is a provider of mission-critical communications equipment and software for public safety and commercial customers. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Products and Systems Integration (~70% of sales) selling radios, video security hardware, and network infrastructure, and Software and Services (~30%) offering maintenance, support, and software subscriptions. The company's moat lies in its entrenched position in public safety communications—particularly its Land Mobile Radio systems—where switching costs are high and reliability requirements create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$65.6B
Revenue TTM
$11.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
17.6%
MSI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.57/$3.35
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.06/$3.85
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.59/$4.35
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.37/$3.24
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.57/$3.35 | +6.6% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.06/$3.85 | +5.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.59/$4.35 | +5.5% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.37/$3.24 | +4.0% | $2.7B/$2.7B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.6B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
+6.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.87
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$14.72
+6.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.5B
FCF Margin: 21.0%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.86
Expected Revenue
$3.0B
MSI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MSI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
58.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
71.6%
+6.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 58.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 71.6%, up 6.9% YoY.
MSI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $725 — implies +83.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
83.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MSI
31.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+27% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MSI
31.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+7% premium
vs MSI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.0x
vs
5Y Average
36.4x
15% discount
Forward PE
23.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+24%
Technology
22.3x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+27%
Technology
29.0x
+7%
5Y Avg
36.4x
-15%
PEG Ratio
1.67x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1%
Technology
1.51x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+44%
Technology
16.6x
+32%
5Y Avg
23.9x
-8%
Price/FCF
25.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+23%
Technology
19.2x
+33%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-15%
Price/Sales
5.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+82%
Technology
2.4x
+130%
5Y Avg
5.8x
-3%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.91%
-43%
Technology
1.11%
-1%
5Y Avg
1.05%
+4%
| Metric | MSI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.3x | 18.8x+24% | 22.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.0x | 24.4x+27% | 29.0x | 36.4x-15% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.67x | 1.66x | 1.51x+11% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.9x | 15.2x+44% | 16.6x+32% | 23.9x |
| Price/FCF | 25.5x | 20.7x+23% | 19.2x+33% | 30.0x-15% |
| Price/Sales | 5.6x | 3.1x+82% | 2.4x+130% | 5.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.05% |
MSI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMSI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MSI generates $2.5B in free cash flow at a 21.0% margin — 25.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
49.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.5× FCF
~3.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
89.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (25.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.33
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
166M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMSI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Competitive Consumer Market
Motorola's consumer smartphone segment faces intense competition, as seen in promotional offers and regional market pressures.
Lower
Spin-off Legacy Risks
Historical spin-offs like Motorola Mobility may leave residual operational or brand complexities.
High Risk
Overreliance on Public Sector
Motorola Solutions' heavy focus on government and enterprise equipment exposes it to budget cycles and policy shifts.
Medium
AI Execution Risk
Optimism around AI-driven growth could lead to volatility if execution fails to meet expectations.
Lower
Promotional Dependency
Aggressive discounts (e.g., free accessories) may erode margins in consumer segments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MSI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong financial track record
Motorola Solutions has a strong financial track record and a capital allocation framework that drives shareholder value, as highlighted in their investor presentation.
Long-term value creation
The company is uniquely positioned for long-term value creation, with a focus on segments and technologies that address a large total addressable market.
Strategic acquisitions
Motorola Solutions recently acquired D-Fend Solutions for $1.5 billion, targeting the growing counter-drone market, which could drive future growth.
Unified communications technology
The company integrates communications, video, and security technology to serve public safety and business sectors, positioning it as a leader in these markets.
Bullish investor sentiment
There is notable bullish investor sentiment around Motorola Solutions, as evidenced by recent analyses and summaries from financial commentators like RadnorCapital.
Expanding product portfolio
Motorola continues to expand its product portfolio, including new unlocked Android phones and promotional offers, which could drive consumer and enterprise sales.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MSI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$395.17
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$361.32
+9.4% from the low
52-Week High
$492.22
-19.7% from the high
1 Month
-3.68%
3 Month
-15.43%
YTD
+3.7%
1 Year
-2.4%
3Y CAGR
+12.3%
5Y CAGR
+13.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MSI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.3x
vs 28.2x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs +3.7% median
+71% above peer median
Net Margin
17.6%
vs 9.1% median
+93% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSI MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $65.6B | 23.3x | +6.3% | 17.6% | Buy | +28.0% |
AXO AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $34.1B | 55.1x | +14.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +54.0% |
DGI DGII Digi International Inc. | $2.6B | 28.2x | +5.9% | 9.1% | Buy | +2.4% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.4B | 29.6x | +3.7% | 14.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
SAI SAIC Science Applications International Corporation | $4.3B | 10.1x | 0.0% | 5.6% | Hold | +9.1% |
TRM TRMB Trimble Inc. | $11.6B | 15.9x | +3.3% | 12.4% | Buy | +84.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MSI Dividend and Capital Return
MSI returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (1.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.10% dividend — combining for 2.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
33.8%
How MSI Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 1.8%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 1.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.33
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
11.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
166M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.48 | +11.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $4.03 | +11.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $3.62 | +11.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $3.25 | +11.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsMSI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $506, implying +28.0% from the current price of $395. The bear case scenario is $300 and the bull case is $626.
02What is the MSI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MSI is $506 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $530 (+34.1% from today), and the low-end target is $470 (+18.9%). The base case model target is $475.
03Is Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MSI trades at 23.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MSI in 2026 are: (1) Overreliance on Public Sector — Motorola Solutions' heavy focus on government and enterprise equipment exposes it to budget cycles and policy shifts. (2) Competitive Consumer Market — Motorola's consumer smartphone segment faces intense competition, as seen in promotional offers and regional market pressures. (3) AI Execution Risk — Optimism around AI-driven growth could lead to volatility if execution fails to meet expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MSI will report consensus revenue of $12.6B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.87 (+11.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) report its next earnings?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.86 and revenue of $3.0B. Over recent quarters, MSI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Motorola Solutions, Inc. generate?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) generated $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.0%. MSI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).