Upside case
Bull case
$588+35.5%
MSI would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
23 bullish · 4 bearish · 33 covering MSI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
6
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$481
+11.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$306 – $588
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $71.9B
MSI price targets
Three scenarios for where MSI stock could go
Current
~$434
Confidence
74 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $434
Bear
$306
Base
$544
Bull
$588
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$544+25.5%
At 32x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$306-29.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push MSI down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
MSI · NYSETechnologyCommunication EquipmentDecember year-end
Motorola Solutions is a provider of mission-critical communications equipment and software for public safety and commercial customers. It generates revenue primarily through two segments: Products and Systems Integration (~70% of sales) selling radios, video security hardware, and network infrastructure, and Software and Services (~30%) offering maintenance, support, and software subscriptions. The company's moat lies in its entrenched position in public safety communications—particularly its Land Mobile Radio systems—where switching costs are high and reliability requirements create significant barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$71.9B
Revenue TTM
$11.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.2B
Net Margin
18.4%
MSI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$3.18/$3.01
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.57/$3.35
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.06/$3.85
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.59/$4.35
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $3.18/$3.01 | +5.6% | $2.5B/$2.5B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57/$3.35 | +6.6% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.06/$3.85 | +5.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.59/$4.35 | +5.5% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$13.7B
+7.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.81
+15.6% YoY
FY2
$16.00
+8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 22.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.25
Expected Revenue
$2.7B
MSI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MSI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
58.0%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
71.6%
+6.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 58.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.9% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 71.6%, up 6.9% YoY.
MSI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $464 — implies +6.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MSI
34.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+35% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MSI
34.0x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+24% premium
vs MSI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.0x
vs
5Y Average
36.4x
7% discount
Forward PE
25.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+36%
Technology
21.7x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+35%
Technology
27.5x
+24%
5Y Avg
36.4x
-7%
PEG Ratio
1.84x
S&P 500
1.75x
+5%
Technology
1.47x
+25%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
24.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+57%
Technology
17.4x
+38%
5Y Avg
23.9x
+0%
Price/FCF
27.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+31%
Technology
19.8x
+41%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-7%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+96%
Technology
2.4x
+155%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+7%
Dividend Yield
0.99%
S&P 500
1.88%
-47%
Technology
1.18%
-16%
5Y Avg
1.05%
-6%
| Metric | MSI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.8x | 19.1x+36% | 21.7x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.0x | 25.2x+35% | 27.5x+24% | 36.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.84x | 1.75x | 1.47x+25% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.0x | 15.3x+57% | 17.4x+38% | 23.9x |
| Price/FCF | 27.9x | 21.3x+31% | 19.8x+41% | 30.0x |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+96% | 2.4x+155% | 5.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.99% | 1.88% | 1.18% | 1.05% |
MSI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMSI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MSI generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 22.0% margin — 25.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
88.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (25.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.6%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.31
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
169M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMSI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Compliance
Motorola Solutions faces 26% of identified risks from legal and regulatory exposure, including compliance with product safety, consumer protection, worker safety, and environmental mandates. Non‑compliance could trigger fines, product recalls, or operational restrictions, potentially eroding margins.
High Risk
Tech & Innovation Disruption
22% of risks stem from rapid tech change and the need for continuous R&D. Emerging competitors and disruptive solutions threaten Motorola’s market leadership, while failure to innovate could reduce demand for its high‑value products.
High Risk
Production & Quality Issues
Production risks, also 22%, involve design, manufacturing, or component defects that can lead to customer dissatisfaction, order cancellations, and reputational damage. Quality lapses may increase warranty costs and delay deliveries.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Geopolitical unrest, tariff wars, and other global events can disrupt supply chains, raising component costs and delivery times. Such disruptions could increase production costs and delay product availability.
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Data Breaches
The sophistication of cyberattacks, especially those linked to geopolitical conflicts, poses a significant risk to Motorola’s sensitive data. A breach could compromise customer trust and result in regulatory penalties.
Medium
Valuation Premium
Motorola’s current P/E ratio reflects a premium, indicating high growth expectations. Failure to meet these expectations could trigger a stock price correction, impacting shareholder value.
Medium
Integration of Acquisitions
The pending Silvus acquisition presents operational challenges, including cultural alignment and growth momentum. Poor integration could dilute synergies and strain resources.
Lower
Market Concentration
Over‑reliance on a single market exposes Motorola to profitability fluctuations if that market experiences a significant trend shift. Concentration risk could affect revenue stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MSI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Driven Software Expansion
Motorola Solutions is expanding its AI‑driven security platform with new cameras, access control devices, and intelligent software for real‑time incident response. This shift toward operational intelligence is expected to generate recurring software revenue, positioning the company for higher margin growth.
Dominant Core Public‑Safety Business
Demand for land mobile radio (LMR) and video security remains strong, driving revenue growth. MSI’s leadership in mission‑critical voice and data systems for public safety and defense underpins its core strength.
Strategic Acquisitions Fuel Growth
The acquisition of Silvus Technologies expands MSI’s mobile ad‑hoc networking capabilities for defense and unmanned systems, exceeding initial expectations and opening new markets.
Strong Financial Trajectory
MSI has posted year‑over‑year growth in equity, EPS, net income, and operating income. Revenue is projected to grow at a 7% CAGR over the next three years, while EPS is expected to rise over 30% this year.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MSI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$433.66
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$361.32
+20.0% from the low
52-Week High
$492.22
-11.9% from the high
1 Month
-1.75%
3 Month
+2.72%
YTD
+13.8%
1 Year
+5.1%
3Y CAGR
+15.0%
5Y CAGR
+18.2%
10Y CAGR
+19.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MSI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.8x
vs 25.5x median
+1% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
vs +3.7% median
+134% above peer median
Net Margin
18.4%
vs 9.1% median
+103% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSI MSI Motorola Solutions, Inc. | $71.9B | 25.8x | +8.5% | 18.4% | Buy | +11.0% |
AXO AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | $31.1B | 49.7x | +31.5% | 6.9% | Buy | +88.3% |
DGI DGII Digi International Inc. | $2.2B | 25.5x | +4.8% | 9.1% | Buy | -14.5% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $87.6B | 30.2x | +3.7% | 18.9% | Buy | -3.6% |
SAI SAIC Science Applications International Corporation | $4.2B | 9.3x | -1.6% | 4.9% | Hold | +3.3% |
TRM TRMB Trimble Inc. | $15.0B | 20.5x | -0.9% | 12.4% | Buy | +49.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MSI Dividend and Capital Return
MSI returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (1.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.99% dividend — combining for 2.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 14 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
0.99%
Payout Ratio
33.8%
How MSI Splits Its Return
Div 0.99%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 0.99%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.31
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
14Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
11.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
169M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.21 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.48 | +11.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $4.03 | +11.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $3.62 | +11.4% | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $3.25 | +11.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsMSI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $481, implying +11.0% from the current price of $434. The bear case scenario is $306 and the bull case is $588.
02What is the MSI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MSI is $481 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $506 (+16.7% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (+3.8%). The base case model target is $544.
03Is Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MSI trades at 25.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MSI in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Compliance — Motorola Solutions faces 26% of identified risks from legal and regulatory exposure, including compliance with product safety, consumer protection, worker safety, and environmental mandates. (2) Tech & Innovation Disruption — 22% of risks stem from rapid tech change and the need for continuous R&D. (3) Production & Quality Issues — Production risks, also 22%, involve design, manufacturing, or component defects that can lead to customer dissatisfaction, order cancellations, and reputational damage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MSI will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (+8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.81 (+15.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.7B in revenue.
06When does Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) report its next earnings?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $3.25 and revenue of $2.7B. Over recent quarters, MSI has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Motorola Solutions, Inc. generate?
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.0%. MSI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).