Upside case
Bull case
$1051+139.4%
BLD would need investors to value it at roughly 58x earnings — about 34x more generous than today's 24x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 29 covering BLD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$538
+22.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$257 – $1051
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
24.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.3B
BLD price targets
Three scenarios for where BLD stock could go
Current
~$439
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $439
Bear
$257
Base
$558
Bull
$1051
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$558+27.0%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$257-41.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push BLD down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TopBuild Corp.
BLD · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
TopBuild is a leading installer and distributor of insulation and other building products for the construction industry. It generates revenue through two main segments: installation services (roughly 70% of sales) and specialty distribution of building materials (about 30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale, established contractor relationships, and technical expertise in building science—making it difficult for smaller regional players to match.
Market Cap
$12.3B
Revenue TTM
$5.6B
Net Income TTM
$503M
Net Margin
9.0%
BLD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.31/$5.07
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.36/$5.28
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.50/$4.39
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.75/$3.64
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.31/$5.07 | +4.7% | $1.3B/$1.4B | -4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.36/$5.28 | +1.5% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.50/$4.39 | +2.5% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.75/$3.64 | +3.0% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.9B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$6.2B
+4.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$20.16
+12.7% YoY
FY2
$23.21
+15.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$704M
FCF Margin: 12.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BLD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BLD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Insulation and accessories
83.5%
-2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Insulation and accessories is the largest disclosed segment at 83.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.6% YoY.
BLD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $415 — implies -5.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BLD
24.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
BLD
24.0x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
7% discount
vs BLD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.0x
vs
5Y Average
19.0x
+27% premium
Forward PE
24.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+27%
Industrials
20.8x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-5%
Industrials
25.9x
-7%
5Y Avg
19.0x
+27%
PEG Ratio
1.22x
S&P 500
1.75x
-30%
Industrials
1.59x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
+4%
Industrials
13.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+23%
Price/FCF
17.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
-17%
Industrials
20.6x
-14%
5Y Avg
16.8x
+5%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-27%
Industrials
1.6x
+43%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+15%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BLD | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg BLD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 24.1x | 19.1x+27% | 20.8x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.0x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 19.0x+27% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.22x | 1.75x-30% | 1.59x-23% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x | 15.3x | 13.9x+14% | 12.9x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 17.6x | 21.3x-17% | 20.6x-14% | 16.8x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-27% | 1.6x+43% | 2.0x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | — |
BLD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBLD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BLD generates $704M in free cash flow at a 12.5% margin — 13.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$704M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$185M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.2× FCF
~4.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$434M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
28M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBLD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Housing Market Cyclicality
Builders FirstSource's revenue is heavily dependent on the cyclical residential new construction and repair/remodeling markets. Economic factors such as high interest rates can significantly dampen new construction starts, leading to a potential downturn in revenues and cash flows.
High Risk
Financial Leverage
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 117.2, indicating significant financial leverage. While currently manageable, this elevated leverage can limit financial flexibility and poses risks if cash flows decline.
High Risk
Profit Margin Compression
Builders FirstSource faces risks from rising material and labor costs, which can compress profit margins. Competitive pricing pressures in a fragmented market further exacerbate this issue, with management aiming for a sustainable gross margin near 30%.
Medium
Revenue Decline and Demand Uncertainty
The company has reported year-over-year revenue declines, raising concerns about demand for its core offerings. Factors such as lower organic net sales and commodity deflation have contributed to this trend.
Medium
Operational Challenges
Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are significant operational challenges for Builders FirstSource. Increased transportation costs further complicate these operational hurdles.
Medium
Commodity Price Fluctuations
Prices of building products, including lumber, are subject to fluctuations driven by supply and demand dynamics and broader economic conditions. Such volatility can impact profitability and pricing strategies.
Lower
Regulatory Developments
Increased regulatory restrictions could limit demand for new homes, negatively affecting Builders FirstSource's sales and earnings. Regulatory changes in the housing market can create uncertainty for future growth.
Lower
Acquisition Risks
While acquisitions can drive growth, they come with integration challenges and potential regulatory scrutiny. The pending acquisition by QXO introduces a high-risk scenario, with significant downside if the deal fails.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BLD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Diversification
TopBuild is a leading installer and distributor of insulation and building products in North America, with a well-diversified portfolio across residential, commercial, and industrial markets. The recent acquisition of Progressive Roofing is expected to strengthen its installation services segment and offer potential for further market consolidation.
Acquisition Strategy
TopBuild has a strong history of strategic acquisitions that enhance its growth and market share. The company's focus on inorganic growth opportunities is viewed positively for its financial outlook.
Operational Excellence and Technology
TopBuild emphasizes operational excellence and utilizes a connected technology platform, contributing to its best-in-class status in the industry. This focus on efficiency and innovation positions the company favorably against competitors.
Financial Performance and Outlook
TopBuild reported strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that exceeded analyst estimates, with expectations for continued earnings growth in the coming year. Analysts also anticipate revenue growth, further solidifying the company's positive financial trajectory.
Acquisition by QXO
A significant recent development is the definitive agreement for QXO to acquire TopBuild for approximately $17 billion, or $505 per share. This deal represents a substantial premium to TopBuild's previous closing price, indicating strong value recognition by the acquirer and establishing a new valuation anchor for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BLD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$438.93
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$273.87
+60.3% from the low
52-Week High
$559.47
-21.5% from the high
1 Month
+21.70%
3 Month
-15.18%
YTD
+1.7%
1 Year
+53.9%
3Y CAGR
+27.0%
5Y CAGR
+14.5%
10Y CAGR
+29.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BLD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
24.1x
vs 20.0x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +3.3% median
+61% above peer median
Net Margin
9.0%
vs 8.2% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BLD BLD TopBuild Corp. | $12.3B | 24.1x | +5.3% | 9.0% | Buy | +22.5% |
IBO IBOC International Bancshares Corporation | $4.5B | 10.8x | +3.1% | — | Buy | +17.1% |
IBP IBP Installed Building Products, Inc. | $8.1B | 26.9x | +3.3% | 8.9% | Hold | -2.0% |
AWI AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $7.1B | 20.0x | +10.6% | 18.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $8.0B | 49.6x | +19.7% | 7.5% | Buy | +21.1% |
AMW AMWD American Woodmark Corporation | $566M | 15.9x | -4.3% | 1.2% | Hold | +20.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BLD Dividend and Capital Return
BLD returns 3.5% annually — null% through dividends and 3.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
3.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$434M
Estimated Shares Retired
989.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
28M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsBLD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TopBuild Corp. (BLD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $538, implying +22.5% from the current price of $439. The bear case scenario is $257 and the bull case is $1051.
02What is the BLD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BLD is $538 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $620 (+41.3% from today), and the low-end target is $448 (+2.1%). The base case model target is $558.
03Is TopBuild Corp. (BLD) stock overvalued in 2026?
BLD trades at 24.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TopBuild Corp. (BLD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BLD in 2026 are: (1) Housing Market Cyclicality — Builders FirstSource's revenue is heavily dependent on the cyclical residential new construction and repair/remodeling markets. (2) Financial Leverage — The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 117. (3) Profit Margin Compression — Builders FirstSource faces risks from rising material and labor costs, which can compress profit margins. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TopBuild Corp.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BLD will report consensus revenue of $5.9B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $20.16 (+12.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.2B in revenue.
06When does TopBuild Corp. (BLD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BLD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does TopBuild Corp. generate?
TopBuild Corp. (BLD) generated $704M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.5%. BLD returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($434M TTM).