Upside case
Bull case
$141+3.0%
AAON would need investors to value it at roughly 62x earnings — about 2x more generous than today's 60x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
5
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 5 covering AAON
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$119
-13.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $141
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.2B
AAON price targets
Three scenarios for where AAON stock could go
Current
~$137
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $137
Bear
$67
Base
$107
Bull
$141
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$107-21.8%
At 47x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-50.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 31x multiple contraction could push AAON down roughly 51% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
AAON, Inc.
AAON · NASDAQIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
AAON designs and manufactures premium commercial HVAC equipment for specialized applications like data centers, cleanrooms, and supermarkets. It generates revenue primarily from selling custom-engineered rooftop units, air handlers, and chillers — with its AAON Oklahoma segment contributing the majority of sales — through a network of independent manufacturer representatives. The company's competitive advantage lies in its ability to provide highly customized, energy-efficient solutions for complex commercial environments where standard HVAC systems are inadequate.
Market Cap
$11.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.6B
Net Income TTM
$118M
Net Margin
7.3%
AAON Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.31
Revenue
$312M/$361M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.33
Revenue
$384M/$374M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.45
Revenue
$424M/$372M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.48/$0.29
Revenue
$497M/$381M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.22/$0.31 | -29.0% | $312M/$361M | -13.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.33 | +12.1% | $384M/$374M | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.45 | -13.3% | $424M/$372M | +13.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48/$0.29 | +64.6% | $497M/$381M | +30.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.8B
+11.2% YoY
FY2
$2.0B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.89
+33.1% YoY
FY2
$2.38
+25.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$145M
FCF Margin: -9.0%
Next Earnings
August 10, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.50
Expected Revenue
$504M
AAON beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
AAON Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $80M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Part Sales
100.0%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Part Sales is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.3% YoY.
AAON Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $61 — implies -55.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
55.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AAON
106.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+333% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AAON
106.0x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+314% premium
vs AAON 5Y Avg P/E
Today
106.0x
vs
5Y Average
53.0x
+100% premium
Forward PE
60.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+221%
Industrials
21.2x
+185%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
106.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+333%
Industrials
25.6x
+314%
5Y Avg
53.0x
+100%
PEG Ratio
19.50x
S&P 500
1.66x
+1075%
Industrials
1.65x
+1083%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
50.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+230%
Industrials
13.9x
+261%
5Y Avg
31.5x
+59%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Industrials
20.0x
—
5Y Avg
112.7x
—
Price/Sales
7.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+151%
Industrials
1.6x
+397%
5Y Avg
6.1x
+28%
Dividend Yield
0.29%
S&P 500
1.91%
-85%
Industrials
1.21%
-76%
5Y Avg
0.45%
-36%
| Metric | AAON | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AAON |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.4x | 18.8x+221% | 21.2x+185% | — |
| Trailing PE | 106.0x | 24.4x+333% | 25.6x+314% | 53.0x+100% |
| PEG Ratio | 19.50x | 1.66x+1075% | 1.65x+1083% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 50.2x | 15.2x+230% | 13.9x+261% | 31.5x+59% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 20.0x | 112.7x |
| Price/Sales | 7.8x | 3.1x+151% | 1.6x+397% | 6.1x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.29% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 0.45% |
AAON trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAAON Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for AAON are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+28.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.42
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$145M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13000
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$433M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$30M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.39
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
82M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAAON Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
AAON's lofty valuation multiples (P/B of 12.22 and P/S of 7.07) suggest the stock is priced for perfection, posing significant downside risk if growth falters.
High Risk
Cash flow challenges
Negative FCF Yield and high Price to FCF ratio indicate cash flow difficulties, which could limit financial flexibility.
Medium
Technical overextension
The stock trading near its 52-week high suggests it may be overextended, increasing vulnerability to a pullback.
Lower
Disclosed risk factors
AAON disclosed 25 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating potential operational and financial challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AAON Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strategic M&A potential
The board discussed strategic M&A in 2025, indicating potential growth through acquisitions, with a notable premium floor of $105.
Bullish research coverage
Kairos Research published a bullish thesis on AAON, highlighting its investment potential and current market valuation metrics.
Premium valuation metrics
AAON's trailing P/E ratio of 38.88 reflects strong market confidence and growth expectations.
Thermal supply chain security
Potential acquisitions could secure AAON's thermal supply chain, leveraging a significant but manageable capex investment.
Complex product offering
AAON's HVAC systems demonstrate technical complexity, suggesting a competitive moat and high-value product lineup.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AAON Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$136.72
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$62.00
+120.5% from the low
52-Week High
$150.18
-9.0% from the high
1 Month
+2.08%
3 Month
+74.05%
YTD
+72.6%
1 Year
+90.5%
3Y CAGR
+28.3%
5Y CAGR
+27.5%
10Y CAGR
+22.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AAON vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.4x
vs 29.6x median
+104% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.2%
vs +4.3% median
+161% above peer median
Net Margin
7.3%
vs 13.4% median
-46% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
LII LII Lennox International Inc. | $18.5B | 21.9x | +4.3% | 14.9% | Hold | +4.5% |
CAR CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $60.0B | 25.6x | +2.1% | 6.0% | Buy | -4.1% |
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $107.0B | 32.4x | +8.0% | 13.4% | Hold | +8.6% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.4B | 29.6x | +3.7% | 14.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
MOD MOD Modine Manufacturing Company | $15.7B | 57.4x | +9.4% | 3.8% | Buy | +20.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AAON Dividend and Capital Return
AAON returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.29% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
0.29%
Payout Ratio
30.3%
How AAON Splits Its Return
Div 0.29%
Buyback 0.3%
Dividend 0.29%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.39
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.7%
5Y Div CAGR
9.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$30M
Estimated Shares Retired
219.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
82M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.40 | +25.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $0.32 | +11.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 2022 | $0.29 | +13.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsAAON Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
AAON, Inc. (AAON) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $119, implying -13.0% from the current price of $137. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $141.
02What is the AAON stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AAON is $119 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (-12.2% from today), and the low-end target is $118 (-13.7%). The base case model target is $107.
03Is AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock overvalued in 2026?
AAON trades at 60.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AAON in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — AAON's lofty valuation multiples (P/B of 12. (2) Cash flow challenges — Negative FCF Yield and high Price to FCF ratio indicate cash flow difficulties, which could limit financial flexibility. (3) Technical overextension — The stock trading near its 52-week high suggests it may be overextended, increasing vulnerability to a pullback. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is AAON, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AAON will report consensus revenue of $1.8B (+11.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.89 (+33.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.0B in revenue.
06When does AAON, Inc. (AAON) report its next earnings?
AAON, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-10. Consensus expects EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $504M. Over recent quarters, AAON has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does AAON, Inc. generate?
AAON, Inc. (AAON) had a free cash outflow of $145M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.0%. AAON returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($30M TTM).