Upside case
Bull case
$497+231.3%
BPOP would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering BPOP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$159
+6.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$117 – $497
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.8B
BPOP price targets
Three scenarios for where BPOP stock could go
Current
~$150
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $150
Bear
$117
Base
$204
Bull
$497
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$204+35.9%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$117-22.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push BPOP down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Popular, Inc.
BPOP · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Popular, Inc. is a full-service bank operating primarily in Puerto Rico with additional presence in the U.S. mainland and British Virgin Islands. It generates revenue through traditional banking activities — net interest income from loans and deposits (roughly 70% of total revenue) supplemented by fee-based services like investment banking, insurance, and leasing. The company's moat stems from its dominant market position in Puerto Rico — where it operates the largest branch network — and deep customer relationships built over more than a century of operations.
Market Cap
$9.8B
Net Income TTM
$833M
BPOP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.09/$2.54
Revenue
$762M/$804M
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.14/$2.95
Revenue
$779M/$821M
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.38/$3.02
Revenue
$900M/$839M
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.78/$3.30
Revenue
$836M/$850M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.09/$2.54 | +21.7% | $762M/$804M | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.14/$2.95 | +6.4% | $779M/$821M | -5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.38/$3.02 | +11.9% | $900M/$839M | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.78/$3.30 | +14.5% | $836M/$850M | -1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+1.5% YoY
FY2
$4.8B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.39
+21.9% YoY
FY2
$16.71
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$681M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BPOP beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BPOP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $541M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Services
72.0%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
PUERTO RICO
79.4%
+7.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Services is the largest disclosed segment at 72.0% of FY 2024 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
PUERTO RICO is the largest reported region at 79.4%, up 7.3% YoY.
BPOP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $140 — implies -6.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BPOP
12.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BPOP
12.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
9% discount
vs BPOP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.2x
vs
5Y Average
8.7x
+40% premium
Forward PE
10.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-47%
Financial Services
10.5x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Financial Services
13.4x
-9%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+40%
PEG Ratio
0.77x
S&P 500
1.74x
-56%
Financial Services
1.02x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-29%
Financial Services
11.5x
-5%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+187%
Price/FCF
14.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-33%
Financial Services
10.7x
+34%
5Y Avg
10.4x
+38%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-30%
Financial Services
2.2x
-2%
5Y Avg
1.8x
+20%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
S&P 500
1.87%
+4%
Financial Services
2.68%
-27%
5Y Avg
2.62%
-26%
| Metric | BPOP | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BPOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.0x | 19.1x-47% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.2x | 25.2x-52% | 13.4x | 8.7x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.77x | 1.74x-56% | 1.02x-25% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.2x-29% | 11.5x | 3.8x+187% |
| Price/FCF | 14.3x | 21.3x-33% | 10.7x+34% | 10.4x+38% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-30% | 2.2x | 1.8x+20% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% | 1.87% | 2.68% | 2.62% |
BPOP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBPOP Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BPOP generates 13.8% ROE and 1.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.62
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
13.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$403M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
13.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.1%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
5.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$505M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
23.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
65M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBPOP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Natural Disasters
Puerto Rico, where Popular Inc. operates, is highly susceptible to hurricanes, which pose a significant risk to its operations and financial stability. Any major hurricane could disrupt services and lead to substantial financial losses.
High Risk
Economic Downturn in Puerto Rico
The company's performance is closely tied to the economic stability of Puerto Rico. A slowdown or unfavorable developments in the region's economy could severely impact its financial metrics and valuation.
High Risk
Unrealized Losses on Securities
Popular Inc. has reported significant unrealized losses on its available-for-sale securities portfolio. These losses, while not necessarily leading to realized losses, represent a substantial risk to its equity and net income.
Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Fluctuations in interest rates can significantly affect the value of investment securities and impact net interest margins. A rise in interest rates could lead to decreased profitability for the bank.
Medium
Credit Risk and Non-Performing Loans
While not directly applicable to BPOP, the banking sector is facing increased risks of non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly as banks shift towards higher-yield, potentially riskier lending. This trend could lead to higher credit costs for BPOP.
Medium
Insider Selling
Recent significant open-market selling by key executives may indicate negative insider sentiment and a lack of confidence in the stock's future performance. This could affect investor perception and stock price.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Despite some analyses suggesting that BPOP is undervalued, other metrics indicate that it may be overvalued based on its current trading price compared to its intrinsic value and historical averages. This discrepancy could lead to volatility in the stock price.
Lower
Inflation Impact
Inflation-driven increases in operating expenses could negatively affect profitability. Rising costs in the operational environment may squeeze margins and impact overall financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BPOP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Earnings Growth
Analysts anticipate significant earnings per share (EPS) growth for BPOP, with projections of 9% for 2025 and 11% for 2026. The company's earnings are expected to grow by 9.84% next year, from $14.84 to $16.30 per share.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant majority of analysts recommend a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' for BPOP stock. For instance, 8 analysts have a consensus rating of 'Buy,' with 38% recommending 'Strong Buy' and 63% recommending 'Buy.'
Recent Performance and Beat
BPOP recently reported Q1 2026 earnings of $3.78 per share, exceeding analysts' expectations of $3.23 by 17.03%. The company also beat revenue estimates in Q1 2026, reporting $835.81 million against an estimate of $801.84 million.
Improving Operational Efficiency
Popular's net margin has expanded to 28.3% on a trailing basis, up from 22.8% a year earlier. This improvement is attributed to investments in digital platforms and branch modernization, which are expected to enhance operational efficiency.
Outperformance and Momentum
BPOP shares have shown strong performance over various timeframes, outperforming the Zacks Banks - Southeast industry and the S&P 500. The stock has risen 10.12% over the past quarter and 53.26% in the last year.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BPOP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$150.04
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$97.08
+54.6% from the low
52-Week High
$152.95
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+7.25%
3 Month
+2.79%
YTD
+19.1%
1 Year
+51.5%
3Y CAGR
+38.6%
5Y CAGR
+13.7%
10Y CAGR
+17.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BPOP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.0x
vs 11.0x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.5%
vs -3.2% median
+146% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BPO BPOP Popular, Inc. | $9.8B | 10.0x | +1.5% | — | Buy | +6.2% |
FBP FBP First BanCorp. | $3.8B | 11.0x | +2.3% | — | Buy | +5.0% |
OFG OFG OFG Bancorp | $2.0B | 9.7x | +1.8% | — | Buy | -3.2% |
IBC IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | $696M | 9.5x | -3.2% | — | Hold | +12.4% |
WSF WSFS WSFS Financial Corporation | $3.8B | 11.8x | -5.2% | — | Hold | +3.6% |
HOP HOPE Hope Bancorp, Inc. | $1.6B | 11.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +14.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BPOP Dividend and Capital Return
BPOP returns capital mainly through $505M/year in buybacks (5.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.95% dividend — combining for 7.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
7.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.2%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
Payout Ratio
23.7%
How BPOP Splits Its Return
Div 1.95%
Buyback 5.2%
Dividend 1.95%Buybacks 5.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.6%
5Y Div CAGR
12.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$505M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
65M
At 5.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.90 | +13.3% | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| 2024 | $2.56 | +12.8% | 3.2% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $2.27 | +3.2% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| 2022 | $2.20 | +25.7% | 12.7% | 15.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsBPOP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Popular, Inc. (BPOP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $159, implying +6.2% from the current price of $150. The bear case scenario is $117 and the bull case is $497.
02What is the BPOP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BPOP is $159 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $170 (+13.3% from today), and the low-end target is $152 (+1.3%). The base case model target is $204.
03Is Popular, Inc. (BPOP) stock overvalued in 2026?
BPOP trades at 10.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Popular, Inc. (BPOP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BPOP in 2026 are: (1) Natural Disasters — Puerto Rico, where Popular Inc. (2) Economic Downturn in Puerto Rico — The company's performance is closely tied to the economic stability of Puerto Rico. (3) Unrealized Losses on Securities — Popular Inc. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Popular, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BPOP will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+1.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.39 (+21.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.8B in revenue.
06When does Popular, Inc. (BPOP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BPOP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Popular, Inc. generate?
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) generated $681M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BPOP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($505M TTM).