Upside case
Bull case
$122+36.5%
CAVA would need investors to value it at roughly 233x earnings — about 62x more generous than today's 171x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 23 covering CAVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$83
-7.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $122
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
171.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
CAVA price targets
Three scenarios for where CAVA stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $89
Base
$50
Bull
$122
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$50-44.7%
At 95x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
CAVA Group operates a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain offering customizable bowls, pitas, and salads. It generates revenue primarily from restaurant sales — both company-owned locations and a growing franchise segment — supplemented by packaged goods sold in grocery stores. The company's competitive advantage lies in its modern Mediterranean cuisine concept that taps into growing consumer demand for healthy, flavorful options in the fast-casual space.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Revenue TTM
$848M
Net Income TTM
$38M
Net Margin
4.5%
CAVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+276.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.14
Revenue
$332M/$288M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.13
Revenue
$281M/$294M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.13
Revenue
$292M/$268M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$275M/$268M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.22/$0.14 | +57.1% | $332M/$288M | +15.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.16/$0.13 | +23.1% | $281M/$294M | -4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12/$0.13 | -7.7% | $292M/$268M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04/$0.03 | +33.3% | $275M/$268M | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.2B
+44.7% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.49
+51.6% YoY
FY2
$0.62
+26.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$26M
FCF Margin: 3.1%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.17
Expected Revenue
$417M
CAVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CAVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Restaurant Revenue
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Restaurant Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CAVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $25 — implies -72.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
72.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CAVA
165.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+557% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CAVA
165.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+746% premium
vs CAVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
165.7x
vs
5Y Average
107.7x
+54% premium
Forward PE
171.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+797%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+1025%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
165.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+557%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+746%
5Y Avg
107.7x
+54%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
82.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+438%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+622%
5Y Avg
54.4x
+51%
Price/FCF
397.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1763%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+2551%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
12.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+291%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+1622%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+41%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CAVA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CAVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 171.0x | 19.1x+797% | 15.2x+1025% | — |
| Trailing PE | 165.7x | 25.2x+557% | 19.6x+746% | 107.7x+54% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 82.0x | 15.3x+438% | 11.4x+622% | 54.4x+51% |
| Price/FCF | 397.5x | 21.3x+1763% | 15.0x+2551% | — |
| Price/Sales | 12.3x | 3.1x+291% | 0.7x+1622% | 8.7x+41% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
CAVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCAVA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for CAVA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$848M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-12.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.32
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$26M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$283M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$183M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.0× FCF
~7.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
118M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCAVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Premium Valuation
CAVA's stock trades at high valuation multiples compared to the broader market and established restaurant peers. This premium valuation is based on high growth expectations, making the stock susceptible to significant downside if these expectations are not met.
High Risk
Execution Risk
The company's ambitious expansion plans carry execution risk. Any missteps in opening new locations or managing growth could lead to a sharp correction in stock price.
High Risk
Slowing Same-Store Sales Growth
A moderation in same-store sales growth can challenge expansion plans, potentially signaling market saturation or increased competition. This could reduce cash flow for new unit openings and impact investor confidence.
Medium
Intense Competition
CAVA operates in a highly competitive fast-casual dining market. New and existing competitors may mimic its business model, menu, and strategies, which could erode market share.
Medium
Macroeconomic Pressures
Factors like inflation, rising labor costs, and potential economic downturns can disproportionately affect CAVA, especially given its premium positioning. These pressures could lead to reduced consumer spending.
Medium
Margin Compression
Restaurant-level margins have shown a declining trend, indicating profitability pressures. Rising food, packaging, and labor costs can further impact margins, especially as new stores scale up.
Lower
Stock Volatility
CAVA's stock has experienced significant volatility, which is common for growth stocks sensitive to market fluctuations and economic uncertainty. This volatility can lead to unpredictable investment outcomes.
Lower
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Like any public company, CAVA is subject to various legal and governmental regulations. Changes in regulations could impose additional costs or operational challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CAVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Aggressive Expansion and Market Penetration
CAVA has a clear strategy to significantly increase its restaurant footprint, targeting over 1,000 U.S. locations by 2032. This expansion is supported by strong new-unit productivity, with recent cohorts exceeding performance expectations and achieving high average unit volumes (AUVs).
Scalable Business Model and Strong Unit Economics
CAVA's Mediterranean fast-casual concept has proven to be highly popular and scalable, focusing on operational efficiency through initiatives like 'Connected Kitchen' and AI-driven tools. These efforts enhance throughput and labor efficiency, positively impacting unit-level margins, with restaurant-level profit margins remaining strong.
Growing Digital Presence and Omnichannel Strategy
CAVA leverages a robust digital platform, including a mobile app and loyalty program, to drive customer engagement and sales. Digital orders represent a significant portion of revenue, and the company is expanding its catering services, while its retail CPG business serves as a low-cost customer acquisition channel.
Brand Strength and Consumer Appeal
CAVA's unique selling proposition of 'Culinary-Led Mediterranean Way' appeals to health-conscious consumers, particularly millennials and Gen Z. The acquisition of Zoës Kitchen in 2018 accelerated CAVA's national expansion and solidified its market position.
Financial Performance and Analyst Optimism
CAVA has shown significant revenue growth, driven by new store openings and same-restaurant sales growth, achieving profitability with positive net income and adjusted EBITDA. A significant portion of analysts maintain buy-equivalent ratings, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CAVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$89.48
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.41
+106.1% from the low
52-Week High
$101.50
-11.8% from the high
1 Month
+8.95%
3 Month
+27.90%
YTD
+47.8%
1 Year
-4.1%
3Y CAGR
+26.9%
5Y CAGR
+15.4%
10Y CAGR
+7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CAVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
171.0x
vs 47.6x median
+259% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+44.7%
vs +13.3% median
+237% above peer median
Net Margin
4.5%
vs 4.6% median
-3% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAV CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $10.4B | 171.0x | +44.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -7.7% |
CMG CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42.6B | 28.8x | +7.7% | 12.0% | Buy | +33.7% |
SG SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | $814M | — | +8.0% | -19.7% | Hold | +9.3% |
SHA SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $3.9B | 70.0x | +15.8% | 3.2% | Hold | +25.2% |
BRO BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $7.5B | 66.5x | +31.7% | 4.6% | Buy | +26.1% |
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $10.6B | 25.3x | +13.3% | 7.5% | Hold | +20.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCAVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $83, implying -7.7% from the current price of $89.
02What is the CAVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CAVA is $83 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $133 (+48.6% from today), and the low-end target is $52 (-41.9%). The base case model target is $50.
03Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CAVA trades at 171.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CAVA in 2026 are: (1) Premium Valuation — CAVA's stock trades at high valuation multiples compared to the broader market and established restaurant peers. (2) Execution Risk — The company's ambitious expansion plans carry execution risk. (3) Slowing Same-Store Sales Growth — A moderation in same-store sales growth can challenge expansion plans, potentially signaling market saturation or increased competition. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CAVA Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CAVA will report consensus revenue of $1.2B (+44.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.49 (+51.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) report its next earnings?
CAVA Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $417M. Over recent quarters, CAVA has beaten EPS estimates 82% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CAVA Group, Inc. generate?
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) generated $26M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.1%. CAVA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).