Upside case
Bull case
$41-53.9%
The bull case prices CAVA at 74x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering CAVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$90
+0.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$20 – $41
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
161.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.4B
CAVA price targets
Three scenarios for where CAVA stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $89
Bear
$20
Base
$31
Bull
$41
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$31-65.0%
At 56x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$20-77.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 125x multiple contraction could push CAVA down roughly 78% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
CAVA Group operates a fast-casual Mediterranean restaurant chain offering customizable bowls, pitas, and salads. It generates revenue primarily from restaurant sales — both company-owned locations and a growing franchise segment — supplemented by packaged goods sold in grocery stores. The company's competitive advantage lies in its modern Mediterranean cuisine concept that taps into growing consumer demand for healthy, flavorful options in the fast-casual space.
Market Cap
$10.4B
Revenue TTM
$1.3B
Net Income TTM
$62M
Net Margin
4.8%
CAVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+254.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.13
Revenue
$281M/$294M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.12/$0.13
Revenue
$292M/$268M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.04/$0.03
Revenue
$275M/$268M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.17
Revenue
$438M/$360M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.16/$0.13 | +23.1% | $281M/$294M | -4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.12/$0.13 | -7.7% | $292M/$268M | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.04/$0.03 | +33.3% | $275M/$268M | +2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.20/$0.17 | +17.6% | $438M/$360M | +21.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.5B
+14.5% YoY
FY2
$1.7B
+16.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.57
+8.7% YoY
FY2
$0.69
+22.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$39M
FCF Margin: 3.0%
Next Earnings
August 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.17
Expected Revenue
$363M
CAVA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CAVA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Restaurant Revenue
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Restaurant Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CAVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $23 — implies -74.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
74.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CAVA
165.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+575% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CAVA
165.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+681% premium
vs CAVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
165.1x
vs
5Y Average
107.7x
+53% premium
Forward PE
161.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+756%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+886%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
165.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+575%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+681%
5Y Avg
107.7x
+53%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
69.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+354%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+467%
5Y Avg
50.0x
+38%
Price/FCF
397.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1820%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+2453%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
8.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+185%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+1162%
5Y Avg
7.9x
+11%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CAVA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CAVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 161.0x | 18.8x+756% | 16.3x+886% | — |
| Trailing PE | 165.1x | 24.4x+575% | 21.2x+681% | 107.7x+53% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 69.1x | 15.2x+354% | 12.2x+467% | 50.0x+38% |
| Price/FCF | 397.4x | 20.7x+1820% | 15.6x+2453% | — |
| Price/Sales | 8.8x | 3.1x+185% | 0.7x+1162% | 7.9x+11% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CAVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCAVA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for CAVA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$39M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$283M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$183M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
116M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCAVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Food safety concerns
The company has struggled with serious food safety concerns that could impact its growth and stock performance.
High Risk
Aggressive expansion risks
CAVA's ambitious goal of reaching 1,000 locations by 2032 raises questions about execution risks and potential overextension.
Medium
Valuation discipline
The balance between rapid expansion, menu innovation, and valuation discipline will define its risk-reward profile, with concerns about lofty expectations.
Medium
Same-store sales slowdown
Despite strong same-store sales, there are questions about how much of the upside case is already priced in, signaling potential slowing growth.
Medium
Competitive landscape
The fast-casual dining sector is highly competitive, and CAVA's growth-at-all-costs strategy may face challenges in this battleground.
Lower
Menu innovation pressure
Maintaining menu innovation while expanding rapidly could strain resources and dilute brand focus.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CAVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue growth
CAVA Group reported a significant increase in sales, rising to US$438.27 million from US$331.83 million year-over-year, indicating robust top-line growth.
Same-restaurant sales increase
Same-restaurant sales grew by 9.7%, demonstrating strong performance and customer demand at existing locations.
Aggressive expansion plans
CAVA is rapidly expanding with new locations, such as in Columbus, Ohio, and has an optimistic outlook for future openings.
Mediterranean cuisine appeal
CAVA's menu features fresh, bold Mediterranean flavors, attracting customers with customizable bowls, pita wraps, and salads.
Positive adjusted EBITDA outlook
The company has expanded its outlook for adjusted EBITDA, signaling confidence in future profitability.
Previous bullish coverage
Earlier analyses highlighted CAVA's 28% YoY revenue growth and strong same-store sales, despite recent stock depreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CAVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$89.18
52W Range Position
83%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.41
+105.4% from the low
52-Week High
$98.79
-9.7% from the high
1 Month
+11.63%
3 Month
+0.28%
YTD
+47.3%
1 Year
+19.8%
3Y CAGR
+32.4%
5Y CAGR
+15.3%
10Y CAGR
+7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CAVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
161.0x
vs 40.1x median
+302% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.5%
vs +9.8% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
4.8%
vs 4.6% median
+4% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAV CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $10.4B | 161.0x | +14.5% | 4.8% | Buy | +0.8% |
CMG CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42.3B | 28.6x | +9.2% | 12.0% | Buy | +32.6% |
SG SG Sweetgreen, Inc. | $1.1B | — | +9.8% | 2.5% | Hold | -20.8% |
SHA SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $2.4B | 51.5x | +11.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +53.3% |
BRO BROS Dutch Bros Inc. | $9.0B | 77.3x | +15.2% | 4.6% | Buy | +5.2% |
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $11.7B | 27.7x | +9.7% | 6.8% | Hold | +7.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsCAVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $90, implying +0.8% from the current price of $89. The bear case scenario is $20 and the bull case is $41.
02What is the CAVA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CAVA is $90 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $106 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $64 (-28.2%). The base case model target is $31.
03Is CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CAVA trades at 161.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CAVA in 2026 are: (1) Food safety concerns — The company has struggled with serious food safety concerns that could impact its growth and stock performance. (2) Aggressive expansion risks — CAVA's ambitious goal of reaching 1,000 locations by 2032 raises questions about execution risks and potential overextension. (3) Valuation discipline — The balance between rapid expansion, menu innovation, and valuation discipline will define its risk-reward profile, with concerns about lofty expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CAVA Group, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CAVA will report consensus revenue of $1.5B (+14.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.57 (+8.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.7B in revenue.
06When does CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) report its next earnings?
CAVA Group, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.17 and revenue of $363M. Over recent quarters, CAVA has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CAVA Group, Inc. generate?
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) generated $39M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.0%. CAVA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).