Upside case
Bull case
$52+60.7%
CMG would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
67
analysts
47 bullish · 0 bearish · 67 covering CMG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
47
Hold
20
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$43
+32.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$25 – $52
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
67
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
28.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.3B
CMG price targets
Three scenarios for where CMG stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Bear
$25
Base
$40
Bull
$52
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$40+22.0%
At 35x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$25-23.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push CMG down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG · NYSEConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Chipotle Mexican Grill operates a fast-casual restaurant chain specializing in customizable Mexican-inspired food like burritos, bowls, and tacos. It generates nearly all revenue from restaurant sales — both in-store and digital orders — with a small portion from delivery fees and catering. The company's moat lies in its "Food with Integrity" brand promise, efficient assembly-line service model, and strong digital ecosystem that drives customer loyalty.
Market Cap
$42.3B
Revenue TTM
$12.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
12.0%
CMG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.33/$0.33
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.29/$0.29
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.24
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.24
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.33/$0.33 | +1.2% | $3.1B/$3.1B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.29/$0.29 | +1.5% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.24 | +5.0% | $3.0B/$3.0B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24/$0.24 | +1.1% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.3B
+9.2% YoY
FY2
$14.3B
+8.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.20
+7.3% YoY
FY2
$1.40
+17.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 12.4%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.32
Expected Revenue
$3.3B
CMG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CMG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Beverage
99.5%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
U. S. Segment
100.0%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Food and Beverage is the largest disclosed segment at 99.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.5% YoY.
U. S. Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 5.1% YoY.
CMG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $42 — implies +30.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CMG
28.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+17% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CMG
28.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+35% premium
vs CMG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
28.5x
vs
5Y Average
51.5x
45% discount
Forward PE
28.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+52%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+75%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
28.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+17%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+35%
5Y Avg
51.5x
-45%
PEG Ratio
0.80x
S&P 500
1.66x
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-13%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+43%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+79%
5Y Avg
35.6x
-39%
Price/FCF
29.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+41%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-41%
Price/Sales
3.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+408%
5Y Avg
5.8x
-39%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CMG | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CMG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 28.6x | 18.8x+52% | 16.3x+75% | — |
| Trailing PE | 28.5x | 24.4x+17% | 21.2x+35% | 51.5x-45% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.80x | 1.66x-52% | 0.92x-13% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8x | 15.2x+43% | 12.2x+79% | 35.6x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 29.2x | 20.7x+41% | 15.6x+88% | 49.3x-41% |
| Price/Sales | 3.5x | 3.1x+15% | 0.7x+408% | 5.8x-39% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CMG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCMG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CMG generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 12.4% margin — 15.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$351M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.3× FCF
~6.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
48.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
5.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCMG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has shown significant drawdowns during market shocks, averaging -24% across 15 major systemic shocks, indicating high sensitivity to broader market volatility.
Medium
Operational Risks
As a quick-casual restaurant chain, Chipotle faces operational risks related to food sourcing, preparation, and supply chain disruptions, which could impact its performance.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Chipotle operates in a highly competitive fast-casual dining sector, where maintaining differentiation and customer loyalty is challenging amid rising competition.
Lower
Menu Innovation Risks
While Chipotle offers a focused menu, reliance on limited innovation (e.g., protein bowls) could risk stagnation in attracting diverse customer preferences over time.
High Risk
Production Risks
Chipotle has reported production as a top risk category, likely due to challenges in maintaining consistent quality and supply chain efficiency across its locations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CMG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Operational efficiency
The company's operational efficiency is highlighted as a key driver for its bullish outlook, contributing to long-term earnings compounding.
Brand strength
Chipotle's strong brand and reputation for responsibly sourced and freshly prepared food are central to its investment appeal.
Digital adoption
The adoption of digital ordering and rewards programs enhances customer engagement and drives revenue growth.
Menu innovation
Innovative menu offerings like the High Protein Cup and Double High Protein Bowl cater to diverse consumer preferences.
Catering services
Chipotle Catering simplifies serving real food for events, expanding its market reach and revenue streams.
Fast casual leadership
As one of the first fast casual chains, Chipotle maintains a competitive edge in the growing fast casual dining segment.
Rewards program
The rewards program fosters customer loyalty and repeat business, supporting sustained revenue growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CMG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.48
52W Range Position
15%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$28.04
+15.9% from the low
52-Week High
$58.42
-44.4% from the high
1 Month
-3.73%
3 Month
-0.47%
YTD
-13.4%
1 Year
-37.3%
3Y CAGR
-7.5%
5Y CAGR
+3.0%
10Y CAGR
+15.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CMG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
28.6x
vs 35.4x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.2%
vs +10.9% median
-16% below peer median
Net Margin
12.0%
vs 5.7% median
+110% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMG CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42.3B | 28.6x | +9.2% | 12.0% | Buy | +32.6% |
SFM SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.6B | 14.4x | +7.7% | 5.7% | Buy | +13.1% |
SHA SHAK Shake Shack Inc. | $2.4B | 51.5x | +11.6% | 2.8% | Buy | +53.3% |
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $11.7B | 27.7x | +9.7% | 6.8% | Hold | +7.7% |
CAV CAVA CAVA Group, Inc. | $10.4B | 161.0x | +14.5% | 4.8% | Buy | +0.8% |
WIN WING Wingstop Inc. | $4.4B | 35.4x | +10.9% | 15.8% | Hold | +72.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CMG Dividend and Capital Return
CMG returns 5.7% annually — null% through dividends and 5.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
75M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 5.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCMG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 67 analysts covering the stock, 47 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $43, implying +32.6% from the current price of $32. The bear case scenario is $25 and the bull case is $52.
02What is the CMG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CMG is $43 based on 67 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $52 (+60.1% from today), and the low-end target is $36 (+10.8%). The base case model target is $40.
03Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock overvalued in 2026?
CMG trades at 28.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CMG in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has shown significant drawdowns during market shocks, averaging -24% across 15 major systemic shocks, indicating high sensitivity to broader market volatility. (2) Production Risks — Chipotle has reported production as a top risk category, likely due to challenges in maintaining consistent quality and supply chain efficiency across its locations. (3) Operational Risks — As a quick-casual restaurant chain, Chipotle faces operational risks related to food sourcing, preparation, and supply chain disruptions, which could impact its performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CMG will report consensus revenue of $13.3B (+9.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.20 (+7.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.3B in revenue.
06When does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) report its next earnings?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $0.32 and revenue of $3.3B. Over recent quarters, CMG has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. generate?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.4%. CMG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.4B TTM).