Upside case
Bull case
$285+78.5%
TXRH would need investors to value it at roughly 45x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 25x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
43
analysts
17 bullish · 0 bearish · 43 covering TXRH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
26
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$192
+20.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$38 – $285
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.6B
TXRH price targets
Three scenarios for where TXRH stock could go
Current
~$160
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $160
Bear
$38
Base
$210
Bull
$285
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$210+31.8%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$38-76.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push TXRH down roughly 76% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
TXRH · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Texas Roadhouse operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for its hand-cut steaks, made-from-scratch sides, and lively atmosphere. It generates revenue primarily from restaurant sales — about 95% from company-owned locations and 5% from franchise royalties and fees — with food and beverage sales driving the vast majority of income. The company's competitive advantage lies in its consistent value proposition, strong brand loyalty built on quality food and service, and efficient operations that deliver industry-leading same-store sales growth.
Market Cap
$10.6B
Revenue TTM
$5.8B
Net Income TTM
$437M
Net Margin
7.5%
TXRH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.70/$1.76
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.90
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.28
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.53
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.70/$1.76 | -3.4% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$1.90 | -2.1% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25/$1.28 | -2.3% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.53 | -16.3% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.6B
+13.3% YoY
FY2
$7.5B
+13.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.85
+4.2% YoY
FY2
$8.53
+24.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$341M
FCF Margin: 5.8%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.81
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
TXRH beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TXRH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $146M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Beverage
78.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Food and Beverage is the largest disclosed segment at 78.5% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TXRH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $159 — implies +0.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
0.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TXRH
24.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TXRH
24.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+26% premium
vs TXRH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.7x
vs
5Y Average
55.4x
55% discount
Forward PE
25.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+67%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-2%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+26%
5Y Avg
55.4x
-55%
PEG Ratio
1.16x
S&P 500
1.75x
-34%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+6%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+42%
5Y Avg
21.6x
-26%
Price/FCF
26.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+24%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+77%
5Y Avg
37.3x
-29%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+177%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+2%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
S&P 500
1.88%
-19%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-29%
5Y Avg
1.39%
+10%
| Metric | TXRH | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.3x | 19.1x+33% | 15.2x+67% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.7x | 25.2x | 19.6x+26% | 55.4x-55% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.16x | 1.75x-34% | 0.95x+21% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1x | 15.3x | 11.4x+42% | 21.6x-26% |
| Price/FCF | 26.5x | 21.3x+24% | 15.0x+77% | 37.3x-29% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-37% | 0.7x+177% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.39% |
TXRH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTXRH Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TXRH 20.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.57
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$341M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$245M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$609M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.8× FCF
~1.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
29.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$80M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.43
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
67M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTXRH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Inflationary Pressures
Rising commodity costs, particularly for beef, are a significant concern for Texas Roadhouse. This inflation, driven by factors such as weather and global pandemics, directly impacts restaurant margins, and while the company attempts to mitigate this through price increases, there is a risk that these measures may not fully offset rising costs.
High Risk
Economic Slowdown and Consumer Spending
Unfavorable economic conditions and potential shifts in consumer spending habits could significantly reduce dining-out frequency. This risk is heightened during economic downturns, which could adversely affect Texas Roadhouse's revenue and profitability.
High Risk
Food Safety and Health Concerns
Negative publicity related to food safety or health issues can lead to significant liabilities and litigation costs for Texas Roadhouse. Such incidents can also damage the company's reputation, potentially resulting in a decline in customer trust and sales.
Medium
Labor Costs
Wage inflation and labor shortages are contributing to increased operational expenses for Texas Roadhouse. These rising labor costs can squeeze margins and impact overall profitability.
Medium
Competition
The casual dining sector is highly competitive, with rapid shifts in consumer preferences and market dynamics. Texas Roadhouse must continuously adapt to maintain its market position, which can strain resources and affect profitability.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Labor or supply chain shortages can impact the availability of staff or necessary products for Texas Roadhouse. Such disruptions can hinder the company's ability to meet operational standards and customer demand.
Lower
Debt and Financing
While not extensively detailed, debt and financing represent general risk categories for publicly traded companies like Texas Roadhouse. Increased debt levels could lead to financial strain, particularly in adverse economic conditions.
Lower
Litigation
Texas Roadhouse is subject to litigation risks arising from guest complaints or regulatory scrutiny. Such legal challenges can result in financial liabilities and distract management from core business operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TXRH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Consistent Sales Growth
Texas Roadhouse has demonstrated positive comparable restaurant sales throughout 2025 and early 2026, with accelerating momentum in same-store sales. This growth is driven by strong in-restaurant traffic and an increasing contribution from off-premise sales.
Brand Loyalty and Value Proposition
The company has built strong customer loyalty through its unique dining experience, rich menus, reasonable prices, and fun atmosphere, creating a perception of significant value for guests.
Dividend Growth and Shareholder Returns
Texas Roadhouse has a history of increasing its dividend, making it attractive to income-focused investors. Recent dividend hikes, coupled with ongoing share buybacks, reinforce the company's commitment to returning cash to shareholders.
Expansion and Footprint Growth
The company continues to expand its footprint with new company-owned and franchise restaurants, including concepts like Bubba's 33 and Jaggers, as well as a growing retail segment.
Operational Strengths
Despite facing headwinds like commodity inflation (particularly beef) and wage pressures, Texas Roadhouse's execution has been remarkable in managing these costs without significantly eroding margins. Its large-format restaurants are achieving high sales volumes, contributing to its appeal.
Financial Performance
The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projections indicating continued expansion. While some valuation metrics might suggest it's overvalued in the short term, the long-term growth thesis remains intact.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TXRH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$159.69
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$153.82
+3.8% from the low
52-Week High
$199.99
-20.2% from the high
1 Month
-2.20%
3 Month
-16.38%
YTD
-6.8%
1 Year
-6.8%
3Y CAGR
+14.0%
5Y CAGR
+9.1%
10Y CAGR
+13.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TXRH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.3x
vs 15.0x median
+69% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.3%
vs +1.1% median
+1128% above peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 2.2% median
+235% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $10.6B | 25.3x | +13.3% | 7.5% | Hold | +20.0% |
BLM BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | $692M | 9.7x | +0.6% | 0.2% | Hold | +4.7% |
DRI DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $23.2B | 18.4x | +5.1% | 8.7% | Buy | +15.2% |
CAK CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.0B | 15.0x | +5.9% | 4.0% | Hold | +8.1% |
DEN DENN Denny's Corporation | $322M | 15.0x | +0.2% | 2.2% | Buy | -4.0% |
CBR CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $687M | — | +1.1% | -0.1% | Hold | -0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TXRH Dividend and Capital Return
TXRH returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 1.52% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
Payout Ratio
37.6%
How TXRH Splits Its Return
Div 1.52%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 1.52%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.43
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.9%
5Y Div CAGR
49.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$80M
Estimated Shares Retired
501.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
67M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.72 | +11.5% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.44 | +10.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.20 | +19.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $1.84 | +53.3% | 3.7% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsTXRH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 26 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $192, implying +20.0% from the current price of $160. The bear case scenario is $38 and the bull case is $285.
02What is the TXRH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TXRH is $192 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $210 (+31.5% from today), and the low-end target is $165 (+3.3%). The base case model target is $210.
03Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock overvalued in 2026?
TXRH trades at 25.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TXRH in 2026 are: (1) Inflationary Pressures — Rising commodity costs, particularly for beef, are a significant concern for Texas Roadhouse. (2) Economic Slowdown and Consumer Spending — Unfavorable economic conditions and potential shifts in consumer spending habits could significantly reduce dining-out frequency. (3) Food Safety and Health Concerns — Negative publicity related to food safety or health issues can lead to significant liabilities and litigation costs for Texas Roadhouse. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TXRH will report consensus revenue of $6.6B (+13.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.85 (+4.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.5B in revenue.
06When does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) report its next earnings?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.81 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, TXRH has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. generate?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) generated $341M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.8%. TXRH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($80M TTM).