Upside case
Bull case
$277+56.0%
TXRH would need investors to value it at roughly 43x earnings — about 15x more generous than today's 28x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 44 covering TXRH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
25
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$191
+7.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$133 – $277
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
27.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
TXRH price targets
Three scenarios for where TXRH stock could go
Current
~$178
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $178
Bear
$133
Base
$210
Bull
$277
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$210+18.4%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$133-25.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push TXRH down roughly 25% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Roadhouse, Inc.
TXRH · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Texas Roadhouse operates a chain of casual dining restaurants known for its hand-cut steaks, made-from-scratch sides, and lively atmosphere. It generates revenue primarily from restaurant sales — about 95% from company-owned locations and 5% from franchise royalties and fees — with food and beverage sales driving the vast majority of income. The company's competitive advantage lies in its consistent value proposition, strong brand loyalty built on quality food and service, and efficient operations that deliver industry-leading same-store sales growth.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$6.1B
Net Income TTM
$415M
Net Margin
6.8%
TXRH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.86/$1.90
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.28
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.53
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.87/$1.80
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.86/$1.90 | -2.1% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25/$1.28 | -2.3% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.53 | -16.3% | $1.5B/$1.5B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.87/$1.80 | +3.9% | $1.6B/$1.6B | -0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.7B
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$7.2B
+7.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.69
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$7.65
+14.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$361M
FCF Margin: 5.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.86
Expected Revenue
$1.7B
TXRH beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TXRH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Food and Beverage
99.5%
+4997.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Food and Beverage is the largest disclosed segment at 99.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4997.9% YoY.
TXRH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $128 — implies -27.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
27.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TXRH
29.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+19% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TXRH
29.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+38% premium
vs TXRH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.1x
vs
5Y Average
26.4x
+11% premium
Forward PE
27.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+47%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+38%
5Y Avg
26.4x
+11%
PEG Ratio
0.43x
S&P 500
1.66x
-74%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-54%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+25%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+56%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+11%
Price/FCF
34.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+65%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+119%
5Y Avg
29.7x
+15%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+185%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+6%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
S&P 500
1.91%
-20%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-30%
5Y Avg
1.60%
-5%
| Metric | TXRH | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TXRH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 27.7x | 18.8x+47% | 16.3x+69% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.1x | 24.4x+19% | 21.2x+38% | 26.4x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.43x | 1.66x-74% | 0.92x-54% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9x | 15.2x+25% | 12.2x+56% | 17.0x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 34.2x | 20.7x+65% | 15.6x+119% | 29.7x+15% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-36% | 0.7x+185% | 1.9x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.52% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.60% |
TXRH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTXRH Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TXRH 14.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
14.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.28
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$361M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$135M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.9× FCF
~4.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$150M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.71
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
44.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
66M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTXRH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Miss
Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue fell short of expectations, contributing to a stock decline.
High Risk
Margin Pressure
Persistent commodity inflation is squeezing margins despite strong sales momentum.
Medium
Institutional Selling
Congress Asset Management Co. reduced its stock position by 32% due to missed earnings and revenue projections.
Medium
Age Policy Concerns
Potential risks arise from the strict under-12 age policy across all 800+ locations.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Stock declined ~5% over a recent period, reflecting negative investor sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TXRH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Differentiated operating model
The company's unique operating model sets it apart from competitors, contributing to its strong performance.
Strong unit economics
Texas Roadhouse demonstrates robust unit economics, which supports profitability and growth.
Disciplined expansion
The company follows a disciplined approach to expansion, ensuring sustainable growth without overextending resources.
Resilient cash flows
Texas Roadhouse generates resilient cash flows, providing stability and flexibility in various economic conditions.
Stock price appreciation
The stock has shown significant appreciation, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TXRH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$177.75
52W Range Position
55%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$153.82
+15.6% from the low
52-Week High
$197.00
-9.8% from the high
1 Month
+0.34%
3 Month
+5.43%
YTD
+3.7%
1 Year
-7.9%
3Y CAGR
+18.0%
5Y CAGR
+14.5%
10Y CAGR
+14.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TXRH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
27.7x
vs 17.1x median
+62% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
vs +3.6% median
+170% above peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 2.2% median
+206% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TXR TXRH Texas Roadhouse, Inc. | $11.7B | 27.7x | +9.7% | 6.8% | Hold | +7.7% |
BLM BLMN Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | $687M | 9.2x | +0.4% | 0.5% | Hold | +9.6% |
DRI DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. | $25.3B | 20.1x | +4.8% | 8.7% | Buy | +7.8% |
CAK CAKE The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $3.8B | 19.1x | +7.1% | 4.0% | Hold | -15.1% |
DEN DENN Denny's Corporation | $322M | 15.0x | -1.3% | 2.2% | Buy | +12.0% |
CBR CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $1.1B | — | +3.6% | 0.8% | Hold | +3.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TXRH Dividend and Capital Return
TXRH returns 2.8% total yield, led by a 1.52% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
1.52%
Payout Ratio
44.4%
How TXRH Splits Its Return
Div 1.52%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 1.52%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.71
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.9%
5Y Div CAGR
49.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$150M
Estimated Shares Retired
846.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
66M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.72 | +11.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% |
| 2024 | $2.44 | +10.9% | 0.7% | 2.0% |
| 2023 | $2.20 | +19.6% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $1.84 | +53.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsTXRH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $191, implying +7.7% from the current price of $178. The bear case scenario is $133 and the bull case is $277.
02What is the TXRH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TXRH is $191 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $210 (+18.1% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-1.5%). The base case model target is $210.
03Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock overvalued in 2026?
TXRH trades at 27.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TXRH in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Miss — Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue fell short of expectations, contributing to a stock decline. (2) Margin Pressure — Persistent commodity inflation is squeezing margins despite strong sales momentum. (3) Institutional Selling — Congress Asset Management Co. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TXRH will report consensus revenue of $6.7B (+9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.69 (+6.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.2B in revenue.
06When does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) report its next earnings?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.86 and revenue of $1.7B. Over recent quarters, TXRH has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Roadhouse, Inc. generate?
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) generated $361M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.9%. TXRH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($150M TTM).