Upside case
Bull case
$213+107.3%
CF would need investors to value it at roughly 12x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 6x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
20 bullish · 6 bearish · 41 covering CF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
15
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
+8.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$102 – $213
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.8B
CF price targets
Three scenarios for where CF stock could go
Current
~$103
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $103
Bear
$102
Base
$162
Bull
$213
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$162+57.3%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$102-0.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push CF down roughly 1% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate — serving agricultural and industrial markets. It generates revenue through the sale of these nitrogen products to cooperatives, distributors, and industrial users, with its core fertilizer segment driving the vast majority of sales. The company's competitive advantage stems from its large-scale, low-cost production facilities in North America — benefiting from abundant and affordable natural gas feedstock — and its extensive distribution network.
Market Cap
$15.8B
Revenue TTM
$7.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
23.7%
CF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.37/$2.50
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.19/$2.16
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.99/$2.43
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.89/$2.63
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.37/$2.50 | -5.2% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.19/$2.16 | +1.4% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.99/$2.43 | +23.0% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +5.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.89/$2.63 | +9.9% | $2.0B/$1.8B | +8.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.1B
+9.8% YoY
FY2
$8.5B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.43
+18.0% YoY
FY2
$13.27
-1.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 21.9%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.60
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
CF beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ammonia
33.3%
+25.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
60.5%
+18.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ammonia is the largest disclosed segment at 33.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 25.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 60.5%, up 18.9% YoY.
CF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $196 — implies +90.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
90.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CF
11.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
53% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
CF
11.5x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
51% discount
vs CF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.5x
vs
5Y Average
10.7x
+8% premium
Forward PE
6.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-68%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-60%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-53%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-51%
5Y Avg
10.7x
+8%
PEG Ratio
0.26x
S&P 500
1.66x
-84%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-79%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-64%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-51%
5Y Avg
4.9x
+11%
Price/FCF
8.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-58%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-70%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+28%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+19%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+5%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
S&P 500
1.91%
+2%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+39%
5Y Avg
2.09%
-6%
| Metric | CF | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.0x | 18.8x-68% | 14.9x-60% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.5x | 24.4x-53% | 23.6x-51% | 10.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.26x | 1.66x-84% | 1.23x-79% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.4x | 15.2x-64% | 11.0x-51% | 4.9x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 8.8x | 20.7x-58% | 29.0x-70% | 6.8x+28% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-28% | 1.9x+19% | 2.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 2.09% |
CF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCF Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CF generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 21.9% margin — 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+20.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$11.38
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.0%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
22.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
154M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Insider Selling
Recent Form 144 filing indicates scheduled sale of shares by insiders, potentially signaling lack of confidence in near-term performance.
High Risk
Regulatory & Credit Risk
Fitch Ratings' 'BBB' rating reflects stable but moderate credit risk, with potential vulnerability to economic downturns or operational setbacks.
High Risk
Operational Risks
Disclosure of 22 risk factors in earnings report highlights broad operational challenges, including market volatility and execution risks.
Lower
Sector-Specific Risks
Exposure to commodity price fluctuations in the fertilizer industry could impact margins and revenue stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 EBITDA performance
CF Industries reported Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $983 million, with ammonia capacity running at nearly 100%, supported by a tightening global nitrogen market.
Tightening global nitrogen market
The fertilizer sector is becoming more constructive, with investors looking past recent softness toward tightening nutrient markets ahead of the spring application season.
Transformation into clean energy player
CF Industries is pivoting from a cyclical fertilizer manufacturer to a sophisticated energy company, leveraging its position as the world's largest ammonia producer.
Strong cash-generation engine
Following strong full-year and Q4 2025 earnings, CF Industries has seen a surge in its stock price as the market recognizes its robust cash-generation capabilities.
Institutional ownership support
Top institutional holders like Vanguard Group (9.5%) provide stability and confidence in CF Industries' long-term investment thesis.
Bullish momentum in 2026
The stock has shown bullish momentum to start the year, with positive sentiment building around the fertilizer sector's outlook for 2026.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$102.93
52W Range Position
41%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.42
+36.5% from the low
52-Week High
$141.96
-27.5% from the high
1 Month
-17.80%
3 Month
-18.80%
YTD
+28.5%
1 Year
+2.6%
3Y CAGR
+12.8%
5Y CAGR
+16.1%
10Y CAGR
+13.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.0x
vs 12.8x median
-53% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.8%
vs +3.6% median
+175% above peer median
Net Margin
23.7%
vs 6.0% median
+294% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $15.8B | 6.0x | +9.8% | 23.7% | Buy | +8.7% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.3B | 27.8x | +3.6% | 6.0% | Hold | +22.3% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $30.2B | 11.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
UAN UAN CVR Partners, LP | $1.2B | — | +5.5% | 18.9% | Hold | — |
AND ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | $2.4B | 13.4x | +0.9% | 1.2% | Buy | +15.8% |
ICL ICL ICL Group Ltd | $6.6B | 12.3x | +2.3% | 3.5% | Hold | +25.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CF Dividend and Capital Return
CF returns 2.0% total yield, led by a 1.95% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
Payout Ratio
22.4%
How CF Splits Its Return
Div 1.95%
Dividend 1.95%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
154M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +25.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | +6.7% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +25.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying +8.7% from the current price of $103. The bear case scenario is $102 and the bull case is $213.
02What is the CF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CF is $112 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+40.9% from today), and the low-end target is $72 (-30.0%). The base case model target is $162.
03Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock overvalued in 2026?
CF trades at 6.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CF in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Credit Risk — Fitch Ratings' 'BBB' rating reflects stable but moderate credit risk, with potential vulnerability to economic downturns or operational setbacks. (2) Operational Risks — Disclosure of 22 risk factors in earnings report highlights broad operational challenges, including market volatility and execution risks. (3) Insider Selling — Recent Form 144 filing indicates scheduled sale of shares by insiders, potentially signaling lack of confidence in near-term performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CF will report consensus revenue of $8.1B (+9.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.43 (+18.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.5B in revenue.
06When does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) report its next earnings?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $5.60 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, CF has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. generate?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.9%. CF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).