Upside case
Bull case
$473+269.2%
CF would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
20 bullish · 6 bearish · 41 covering CF
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
15
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$109
-15.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$33 – $473
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.0B
CF price targets
Three scenarios for where CF stock could go
Current
~$128
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $128
Bear
$33
Base
$166
Bull
$473
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$166+29.7%
At 12x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$33-74.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push CF down roughly 74% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
CF Industries is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen fertilizer products — primarily anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, and urea ammonium nitrate — serving agricultural and industrial markets. It generates revenue through the sale of these nitrogen products to cooperatives, distributors, and industrial users, with its core fertilizer segment driving the vast majority of sales. The company's competitive advantage stems from its large-scale, low-cost production facilities in North America — benefiting from abundant and affordable natural gas feedstock — and its extensive distribution network.
Market Cap
$20.0B
Revenue TTM
$6.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
20.5%
CF Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.48
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.37/$2.50
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.19/$2.16
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.99/$2.43
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.85/$1.48 | +25.0% | $1.7B/$1.5B | +7.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.37/$2.50 | -5.2% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.19/$2.16 | +1.4% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.99/$2.43 | +23.0% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +5.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.7B
+0.2% YoY
FY2
$6.3B
-7.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.62
+12.5% YoY
FY2
$8.74
-9.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 25.4%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.54
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
CF beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CF Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Ammonia
32.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.8%
-8.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Ammonia is the largest disclosed segment at 32.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.8%, down 8.9% YoY.
CF Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $151 — implies +23.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CF
19.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
24% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
CF
19.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
15% discount
vs CF 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.0x
vs
5Y Average
14.2x
+34% premium
Forward PE
9.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-52%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-24%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-15%
5Y Avg
14.2x
+34%
PEG Ratio
0.76x
S&P 500
1.72x
-55%
Basic Materials
1.17x
-35%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-47%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-26%
5Y Avg
5.6x
+44%
Price/FCF
11.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-46%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-56%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+57%
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+8%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+78%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+55%
Dividend Yield
1.57%
S&P 500
1.87%
-16%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+19%
5Y Avg
2.19%
-28%
| Metric | CF | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg CF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.1x | 19.1x-52% | 15.2x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.0x | 25.1x-24% | 22.3x-15% | 14.2x+34% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.76x | 1.72x-55% | 1.17x-35% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1x | 15.2x-47% | 11.0x-26% | 5.6x+44% |
| Price/FCF | 11.4x | 21.1x-46% | 25.6x-56% | 7.3x+57% |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 1.9x+78% | 2.2x+55% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.57% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 2.19% |
CF trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCF Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CF generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 25.4% margin — 13.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 9.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$6.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.55
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.0× FCF
~1.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.1%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
7.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
181M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCF Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
CF Industries' profitability is heavily influenced by the prices of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers. Significant fluctuations in these commodity markets can adversely affect revenue and margins, particularly when high natural gas prices increase production costs.
High Risk
Competition
CF operates in a highly competitive global market with minimal product differentiation. Competitors, including state-owned entities with lower input costs, can exert pricing pressure, potentially impacting CF's market share and profitability.
High Risk
Regulatory and Environmental Factors
CF is subject to stringent regulations regarding greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. The ongoing investments in cleaner production technologies, such as low-carbon ammonia, can be costly and may increase operational expenses due to heightened environmental scrutiny.
Medium
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The demand for nitrogen products is affected by various factors, including crop selection and economic conditions. Geopolitical events can disrupt trade routes, creating temporary price volatility and impacting CF's revenue.
Medium
Operational Risks
The chemical production process is asset-intensive, and operational setbacks can significantly weaken performance. Maintaining continuous operations is crucial due to the high costs associated with production interruptions.
Medium
Market Sentiment and Valuation
Despite strong financial health, CF faces concerns regarding potential overvaluation, as indicated by high P/E and P/S ratios. This could lead to short-term volatility if market sentiment shifts.
Lower
Economic Headwinds
Broader economic downturns can negatively impact CF's performance, as the fertilizer industry is cyclical and sensitive to global economic conditions. Economic slowdowns may reduce demand for agricultural products, affecting sales.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CF Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Low-Carbon Ammonia Leadership
CF Industries is investing heavily in decarbonization and low-carbon ammonia production, positioning itself as a leader in this emerging market. Key projects include the Donaldsonville Complex CCS project and the Yazoo City Complex CCS project, which aim to capture CO2 emissions and support clean energy applications.
Strong Fertilizer Market Position
As one of the largest producers of nitrogen-based fertilizers globally, CF Industries has a dominant presence in North America. The company benefits from a cost-advantaged production base, utilizing low-cost U.S. natural gas, and is poised to capitalize on a recovering fertilizer sector with tightening nutrient balances.
Financial Strength and Growth
CF Industries has shown robust financial performance with increasing net sales and strong cash flow generation. Analysts anticipate continued revenue and earnings growth, supported by significant upward revisions to future estimates and a history of consistent earnings beats.
Strategic Investments and Expansion
The company is focused on growth through capital expenditures aimed at carbon capture, export terminals, and plant optimization. CF Industries is expanding its low-carbon ammonia exports to markets in Europe and Asia, while also developing new product channels.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Advantages
CF Industries leverages its operational expertise and extensive distribution network to optimize capacity and maintain high on-stream rates. The company is also enhancing reliability and reducing unit costs through advanced technologies like AI and digital twins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CF Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$128.04
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$75.42
+69.8% from the low
52-Week High
$141.96
-9.8% from the high
1 Month
-2.24%
3 Month
+40.21%
YTD
+59.8%
1 Year
+58.2%
3Y CAGR
+22.5%
5Y CAGR
+20.7%
10Y CAGR
+15.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CF vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.1x
vs 15.2x median
-40% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.2%
vs +1.4% median
-86% below peer median
Net Margin
20.5%
vs 8.4% median
+143% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $20.0B | 9.1x | +0.2% | 20.5% | Buy | -15.0% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.4B | 15.9x | +3.3% | 10.5% | Hold | +34.4% |
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $37.3B | 13.6x | +1.4% | 8.4% | Buy | +9.1% |
UAN UAN CVR Partners, LP | $1.4B | — | -0.5% | 18.9% | Hold | — |
AND ANDE The Andersons, Inc. | $2.7B | 16.2x | -3.4% | 1.2% | Buy | -5.4% |
ICL ICL ICL Group Ltd | $7.2B | 14.6x | +1.5% | 5.2% | Hold | +9.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CF Dividend and Capital Return
CF returns capital mainly through $1.5B/year in buybacks (7.6% buyback yield), with a modest 1.57% dividend — combining for 9.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
9.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.6%
Dividend Yield
1.57%
Payout Ratio
29.9%
How CF Splits Its Return
Div 1.57%
Buyback 7.6%
Dividend 1.57%Buybacks 7.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
181M
At 6.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | 0.0% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.00 | +25.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | +6.7% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +25.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsCF Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $109, implying -15.0% from the current price of $128. The bear case scenario is $33 and the bull case is $473.
02What is the CF stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CF is $109 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $145 (+13.2% from today), and the low-end target is $72 (-43.8%). The base case model target is $166.
03Is CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock overvalued in 2026?
CF trades at 9.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CF in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — CF Industries' profitability is heavily influenced by the prices of natural gas and nitrogen fertilizers. (2) Competition — CF operates in a highly competitive global market with minimal product differentiation. (3) Regulatory and Environmental Factors — CF is subject to stringent regulations regarding greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CF will report consensus revenue of $6.7B (+0.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.62 (+12.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.3B in revenue.
06When does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) report its next earnings?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.54 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, CF has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does CF Industries Holdings, Inc. generate?
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.4%. CF returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).