Upside case
Bull case
$233+215.0%
NTR would need investors to value it at roughly 41x earnings — about 28x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 33 covering NTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$84
+14.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$13 – $233
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $35.5B
NTR price targets
Three scenarios for where NTR stock could go
Current
~$74
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $74
Bear
$13
Base
$74
Bull
$233
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$74-0.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing NTR — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$13-82.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push NTR down roughly 83% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nutrien Ltd.
NTR · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
Nutrien is a global agricultural inputs company that produces and distributes crop nutrients and related services. It generates revenue primarily from potash and nitrogen fertilizer sales (roughly 60% combined) and its retail distribution network of crop protection products, seeds, and services. The company's key advantage is its integrated business model—combining low-cost production of key nutrients with the world's largest agricultural retail network—which creates significant scale and logistical efficiencies.
Market Cap
$35.5B
Revenue TTM
$26.9B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
8.4%
NTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-14.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.33
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.40
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.93
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.87
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.11/$0.33 | -66.7% | $5.1B/$5.1B | -0.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.40 | +10.4% | $10.4B/$10.4B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.93 | +4.3% | $5.9B/$5.2B | +13.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.87 | -4.6% | $5.1B/$5.4B | -5.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.3B
+1.4% YoY
FY2
$27.2B
-0.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.97
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$4.73
-4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.0B
FCF Margin: 7.4%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.47
Expected Revenue
$5.3B
NTR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $86 — implies +14.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTR
15.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
38% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
NTR
15.6x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
32% discount
vs NTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.6x
vs
5Y Average
17.5x
11% discount
Forward PE
13.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-32%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-38%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-32%
5Y Avg
17.5x
-11%
PEG Ratio
0.38x
S&P 500
1.75x
-78%
Basic Materials
1.22x
-69%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-51%
Basic Materials
11.4x
-34%
5Y Avg
6.3x
+19%
Price/FCF
17.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-18%
Basic Materials
27.5x
-37%
5Y Avg
14.1x
+24%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Basic Materials
2.0x
-34%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+18%
Dividend Yield
3.01%
S&P 500
1.88%
+60%
Basic Materials
1.37%
+119%
5Y Avg
3.42%
-12%
| Metric | NTR | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg NTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.0x | 19.1x-32% | 15.4x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.6x | 25.2x-38% | 22.9x-32% | 17.5x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.38x | 1.75x-78% | 1.22x-69% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.3x-51% | 11.4x-34% | 6.3x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 17.4x | 21.3x-18% | 27.5x-37% | 14.1x+24% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 2.0x-34% | 1.1x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.01% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 3.42% |
NTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NTR returns 4.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$700M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.2× FCF
~6.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.6%
Dividend
3.0%
Buyback
1.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$561M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
481M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Fertilizer Price Volatility
Nutrien’s earnings are heavily tied to fertilizer prices. Volatility driven by global supply‑demand, input costs, and geopolitical events can erode margins. A prolonged price decline would materially reduce revenue.
High Risk
Valuation Uncertainty
Analysts estimate intrinsic value below the current market price, indicating limited upside. Industry cyclicality adds uncertainty, raising the risk of overvaluation.
Medium
Debt to FCF Ratio
With a Debt to Free Cash Flow ratio of 6.00, Nutrien would take several years to repay debt, raising solvency concerns. This could limit flexibility for growth or dividend policy.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in global supply chains, such as those around the Strait of Hormuz, can tighten fertilizer supply and squeeze margins. Vulnerabilities expose Nutrien to operational risk and potential cost increases.
Medium
Input Cost Fluctuations
Nutrien’s production relies on natural gas and other inputs; fluctuations in these costs can materially affect earnings. Rising input prices could erode profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Global Fertilizer Position
Nutrien is the world’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity, holding a 20% share of installed capacity. The company reports record potash sales volumes and solid free cash flow, underpinning its market leadership.
Robust Potash Demand & 2026 Growth
Strong potash demand is projected to drive sales and price growth through 2026, positioning Nutrien to capture a larger share of the expanding fertilizer market.
US$5B Shelf Registration Flexibility
A recent filing for a US$5 billion shelf registration grants Nutrien significant financial flexibility for future capital raising, supporting growth initiatives and shareholder returns.
Dividend Commitment & Shareholder Returns
Nutrien has increased its quarterly dividend, signaling a clear commitment to returning value to shareholders and reinforcing investor confidence.
Higher Fertilizer Prices from Middle East Supply
Fertilizer prices have risen due to supply constraints in the Middle East, boosting Nutrien’s revenue and margin prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.81
52W Range Position
64%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$53.03
+39.2% from the low
52-Week High
$85.36
-13.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.64%
3 Month
+7.58%
YTD
+16.9%
1 Year
+30.7%
3Y CAGR
+4.6%
5Y CAGR
+4.4%
10Y CAGR
+3.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.0x
vs 14.3x median
-10% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.4%
vs +0.2% median
+625% above peer median
Net Margin
8.4%
vs 5.2% median
+61% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $35.5B | 13.0x | +1.4% | 8.4% | Buy | +14.1% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.5B | 16.1x | +3.3% | 10.5% | Hold | +32.6% |
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $18.4B | 8.5x | +0.2% | 23.7% | Buy | -9.1% |
ICL ICL ICL Group Ltd | $7.3B | 14.6x | +1.5% | 5.2% | Hold | +9.4% |
SMG SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | $3.6B | 14.3x | -3.5% | 2.7% | Buy | +14.6% |
AVD AVD American Vanguard Corporation | $83M | 7.7x | -1.3% | -8.7% | Buy | +484.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NTR Dividend and Capital Return
NTR returns 4.6% total yield, led by a 3.01% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.6%
Dividend Yield
3.01%
Payout Ratio
46.8%
How NTR Splits Its Return
Div 3.01%
Buyback 1.6%
Dividend 3.01%Buybacks 1.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.3%
5Y Div CAGR
3.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$561M
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
481M
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.55 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.18 | +0.9% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 2024 | $2.16 | +1.9% | 0.8% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $2.12 | +10.4% | 3.7% | 7.4% |
| 2022 | $1.92 | +4.3% | 11.5% | 14.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $84, implying +14.1% from the current price of $74. The bear case scenario is $13 and the bull case is $233.
02What is the NTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTR is $84 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+35.5% from today), and the low-end target is $75 (+1.6%). The base case model target is $74.
03Is Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
NTR trades at 13.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTR in 2026 are: (1) Fertilizer Price Volatility — Nutrien’s earnings are heavily tied to fertilizer prices. (2) Valuation Uncertainty — Analysts estimate intrinsic value below the current market price, indicating limited upside. (3) Debt to FCF Ratio — With a Debt to Free Cash Flow ratio of 6. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nutrien Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTR will report consensus revenue of $27.3B (+1.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.97 (+5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $27.2B in revenue.
06When does Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) report its next earnings?
Nutrien Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.47 and revenue of $5.3B. Over recent quarters, NTR has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nutrien Ltd. generate?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) generated $2.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.4%. NTR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.0% yield) and share repurchases ($561M TTM).