Upside case
Bull case
$97+53.9%
NTR would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
33
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 33 covering NTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$82
+30.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$46 – $97
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.2B
NTR price targets
Three scenarios for where NTR stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$46
Base
$73
Bull
$97
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$73+16.8%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$46-26.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push NTR down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nutrien Ltd.
NTR · NYSEBasic MaterialsAgricultural InputsDecember year-end
Nutrien is a global agricultural inputs company that produces and distributes crop nutrients and related services. It generates revenue primarily from potash and nitrogen fertilizer sales (roughly 60% combined) and its retail distribution network of crop protection products, seeds, and services. The company's key advantage is its integrated business model—combining low-cost production of key nutrients with the world's largest agricultural retail network—which creates significant scale and logistical efficiencies.
Market Cap
$30.2B
Revenue TTM
$27.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.4B
Net Margin
8.6%
NTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-12.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.40
Revenue
$10.4B/$10.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.93
Revenue
$5.9B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.83/$0.87
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.48
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.40 | +10.4% | $10.4B/$10.4B | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.93 | +4.3% | $5.9B/$5.2B | +13.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.83/$0.87 | -4.6% | $5.1B/$5.4B | -5.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.51/$0.48 | +6.3% | $5.7B/$5.3B | +7.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.8B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$29.4B
+2.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.25
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$5.15
-1.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 8.0%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.93
Expected Revenue
$10.6B
NTR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $76 — implies +21.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTR
13.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
46% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
NTR
13.3x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
44% discount
vs NTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.3x
vs
5Y Average
17.5x
24% discount
Forward PE
11.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-42%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-46%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-44%
5Y Avg
17.5x
-24%
PEG Ratio
0.32x
S&P 500
1.66x
-81%
Basic Materials
1.23x
-74%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-56%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-39%
5Y Avg
6.3x
+6%
Price/FCF
14.8x
S&P 500
20.7x
-28%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-49%
5Y Avg
14.1x
+5%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-64%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-41%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+0%
Dividend Yield
3.53%
S&P 500
1.91%
+84%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+151%
5Y Avg
3.42%
+3%
| Metric | NTR | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg NTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.0x | 18.8x-42% | 14.9x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.3x | 24.4x-46% | 23.6x-44% | 17.5x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.32x | 1.66x-81% | 1.23x-74% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7x | 15.2x-56% | 11.0x-39% | 6.3x |
| Price/FCF | 14.8x | 20.7x-28% | 29.0x-49% | 14.1x |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-64% | 1.9x-41% | 1.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.53% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 3.42% |
NTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
NTR generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 8.0% margin — returns 5.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
31.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.96
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$700M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.5× FCF
~5.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$561M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
46.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
481M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageNTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Potash supply risks
Nutrien's growth is capped by potash supply risks, which could impact production and profitability.
High Risk
Fertilizer price volatility
Volatility in fertilizer prices poses a significant risk to Nutrien's revenue and earnings stability.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Analyst ratings and price targets suggest potential downside risk, with some models predicting an 8.1% decline by 2026.
Medium
Market sentiment
Mixed analyst sentiment, including Hold ratings, indicates uncertainty about Nutrien's near-term performance.
Lower
Sector cyclicality
Nutrien's exposure to agricultural cycles could lead to fluctuating demand for its products and services.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Leading global crop inputs provider
Nutrien operates a world-class network of production, distribution, and ag retail facilities, positioning it to efficiently serve farmers globally.
Attractive valuation metrics
Nutrien's trailing P/E of 21.49 and forward P/E of 11.85 suggest potential undervaluation, making it an appealing investment opportunity.
Market leadership in fertilizers
As the largest producer of potash and second-largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer globally, Nutrien holds a dominant position in the fertilizer market.
Strategic financial services
Nutrien Financial offers customized capital management strategies tailored to crop revenue cycles, enhancing farmer loyalty and revenue streams.
Strong refinancing strategy
Nutrien's recent senior notes issuance aims to refinance maturing debt, lower short-term obligations, and fund working capital, improving financial flexibility.
Record potash sales
Nutrien has achieved record potash sales, demonstrating strong demand for its core product and driving revenue growth.
Mission-driven growth
Nutrien's focus on 'Feeding the Future' underscores its critical role in global food security, aligning with long-term agricultural demand trends.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$62.86
52W Range Position
30%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$53.03
+18.5% from the low
52-Week High
$85.36
-26.4% from the high
1 Month
-12.23%
3 Month
-19.29%
YTD
-0.5%
1 Year
+0.8%
3Y CAGR
+2.3%
5Y CAGR
+1.6%
10Y CAGR
+1.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.0x
vs 12.3x median
-10% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +2.3% median
+56% above peer median
Net Margin
8.6%
vs 3.5% median
+144% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTR NTR Nutrien Ltd. | $30.2B | 11.0x | +3.6% | 8.6% | Buy | +30.4% |
MOS MOS The Mosaic Company | $7.3B | 27.8x | +3.6% | 6.0% | Hold | +22.3% |
CF CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $15.8B | 6.0x | +9.8% | 23.7% | Buy | +8.7% |
ICL ICL ICL Group Ltd | $6.6B | 12.3x | +2.3% | 3.5% | Hold | +25.1% |
SMG SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | $3.8B | 14.9x | 0.0% | 2.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
AVD AVD American Vanguard Corporation | $76M | 7.0x | -1.0% | -8.7% | Buy | +541.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NTR Dividend and Capital Return
NTR returns 5.4% total yield, led by a 3.53% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
3.53%
Payout Ratio
46.8%
How NTR Splits Its Return
Div 3.53%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 3.53%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.3%
5Y Div CAGR
3.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$561M
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
481M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.18 | +0.9% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
| 2024 | $2.16 | +1.9% | 0.8% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $2.12 | +10.4% | 3.7% | 7.4% |
| 2022 | $1.92 | +4.3% | 11.5% | 14.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsNTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $82, implying +30.4% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $46 and the bull case is $97.
02What is the NTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTR is $82 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $100 (+59.1% from today), and the low-end target is $65 (+3.4%). The base case model target is $73.
03Is Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
NTR trades at 11.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTR in 2026 are: (1) Potash supply risks — Nutrien's growth is capped by potash supply risks, which could impact production and profitability. (2) Fertilizer price volatility — Volatility in fertilizer prices poses a significant risk to Nutrien's revenue and earnings stability. (3) Valuation concerns — Analyst ratings and price targets suggest potential downside risk, with some models predicting an 8. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nutrien Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTR will report consensus revenue of $28.8B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.25 (+5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.4B in revenue.
06When does Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) report its next earnings?
Nutrien Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $2.93 and revenue of $10.6B. Over recent quarters, NTR has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nutrien Ltd. generate?
Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.0%. NTR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($561M TTM).