Upside case
Bull case
$59+1606.7%
CIG-C would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 43x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering CIG-C
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$16 – $59
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
CIG-C price targets
Three scenarios for where CIG-C stock could go
Current
~$3
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $3
Bear
$16
Base
$40
Bull
$59
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$40+1046.4%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$16+351.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CIG-C down roughly 352% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais
CIG-C · NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesDecember year-end
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais is a Brazilian integrated energy utility that generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity primarily in the state of Minas Gerais. It makes money through regulated electricity distribution (its largest segment), power generation from hydroelectric and renewable sources, and energy trading activities. The company's key advantage is its vertically integrated operations—spanning generation to distribution—and its dominant position as the main electricity provider in Brazil's third-most populous state.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$42.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.9B
Net Margin
11.5%
CIG-C Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+212.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.05
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.05/$0.07
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.05/$0.05
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.13/$0.05
Revenue
$2.2B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.05 | +47.2% | $2.0B/$1.7B | +16.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.05/$0.07 | -21.5% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +7.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.05/$0.05 | +0.0% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.13/$0.05 | +138.9% | $2.2B/$1.9B | +18.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$44.1B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$46.9B
+6.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.84
+244.1% YoY
FY2
$5.77
+19.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.6B
FCF Margin: -6.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.05
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
CIG-C beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CIG-C Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $26 — implies +681.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
681.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CIG-C
10.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
60% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
CIG-C
10.0x
vs
Utilities
19.5x
49% discount
vs CIG-C 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.0x
vs
5Y Average
1.3x
+672% premium
Forward PE
2.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-86%
Utilities
17.3x
-85%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-60%
Utilities
19.5x
-49%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+672%
PEG Ratio
0.90x
S&P 500
1.70x
-47%
Utilities
1.69x
-47%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-41%
Utilities
12.0x
-25%
5Y Avg
2.3x
+291%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.4x
—
Utilities
16.2x
—
5Y Avg
2.8x
—
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-62%
Utilities
2.2x
-48%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+613%
Dividend Yield
7.96%
S&P 500
1.90%
+320%
Utilities
3.10%
+157%
5Y Avg
5.73%
+39%
| Metric | CIG-C | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg CIG-C |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.7x | 19.1x-86% | 17.3x-85% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.0x | 25.1x-60% | 19.5x-49% | 1.3x+672% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.90x | 1.70x-47% | 1.69x-47% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0x | 15.3x-41% | 12.0x-25% | 2.3x+291% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.4x | 16.2x | 2.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-62% | 2.2x-48% | 0.2x+613% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.96% | 1.90% | 3.10% | 5.73% |
CIG-C trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCIG-C Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CIG-C earns 12.9% operating margin on regulated earnings, 8.0% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$42.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.72
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
12.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$18.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
8.0%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.36
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
81.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageCIG-C Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
Medium
Valuation de-rating
CIG-C trades at 10.0x trailing earnings versus 25.1x for the S&P 500 and 19.5x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of $16.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $44.1B in revenue (4.4% growth) and $4.84 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$2.6B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield, and a 8.0% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CIG-C Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais already operates from a position of scale, with 15.5% gross margin, 12.9% operating margin, and -$2.6B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Multiple growth levers remain
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais still has room to compound if management converts its existing scale into steadier revenue growth and margin discipline. The bull case does not require perfection; it requires the core business to keep translating operating strength into higher per-share earnings.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to —, while the modeled bull target reaches $59. If $44.1B in forward revenue and $4.84 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 8.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CIG-C Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$3.45
52W Range Position
67%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.35
+46.8% from the low
52-Week High
$4.00
-13.7% from the high
1 Month
+3.29%
3 Month
+19.79%
YTD
+30.7%
1 Year
+34.2%
3Y CAGR
+3.7%
5Y CAGR
+15.6%
10Y CAGR
+14.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CIG-C vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.7x
vs 2.2x median
+24% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +5.9% median
-26% below peer median
Net Margin
11.5%
vs 8.9% median
+30% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CIG CIG-C Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais | $9.9B | 2.7x | +4.4% | 11.5% | Buy | — |
CIG CIG Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais | $6.8B | 1.9x | +4.0% | 11.5% | Buy | -12.1% |
EBR EBR-B Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás | $2.7B | 2.5x | +5.9% | -14.1% | — | — |
SBS SBS Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP | $21.8B | 0.7x | +2.1% | 22.2% | Hold | +273.5% |
ELP ELP Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL | $7M | — | +12.4% | 8.9% | — | — |
ERJ ERJ Embraer S.A. | $12.0B | 4.4x | +15.8% | 4.3% | Buy | -38.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CIG-C Dividend and Capital Return
CIG-C returns 8.0% total yield, led by a 7.96% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
7.96%
Payout Ratio
81.0%
How CIG-C Splits Its Return
Div 7.96%
Dividend 7.96%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.36
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.7%
5Y Div CAGR
36.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.30 | +24.4% | 0.0% | 52.4% |
| 2024 | $0.24 | +39.6% | 0.0% | 64.7% |
| 2023 | $0.17 | -17.5% | 0.0% | 26.3% |
| 2022 | $0.21 | +54.5% | 0.0% | 40.7% |
FAQ
6 questionsCIG-C Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $16 and the bull case is $59.
02Is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) stock overvalued in 2026?
CIG-C trades at 2.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CIG-C in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — CIG-C trades at 10. (2) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $44. (3) Capital return support — Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$2. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CIG-C will report consensus revenue of $44.1B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.84 (+244.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.9B in revenue.
05When does Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) report its next earnings?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.05 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, CIG-C has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais generate?
Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CIG-C) had a free cash outflow of $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.0%. CIG-C returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.0% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).