Upside case
Bull case
$196+200.1%
ERJ would need investors to value it at roughly 13x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 4x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Embraer S.A. (ERJ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
21
analysts
15 bullish · 3 bearish · 21 covering ERJ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
3
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$40
-38.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $196
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
4.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.0B
ERJ price targets
Three scenarios for where ERJ stock could go
Current
~$65
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $65
Base
$194
Bull
$196
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$194+196.4%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Embraer S.A.
ERJ · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Embraer is a Brazilian aerospace manufacturer that designs, develops, and produces commercial, defense, and executive aircraft. It generates revenue primarily from aircraft sales across its commercial aviation (~40%), executive jets (~30%), and defense & security (~20%) segments, with service and support providing the remainder. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized expertise in regional and executive jets — a niche where it competes effectively against larger rivals through focused engineering and established customer relationships.
Market Cap
$12.0B
Revenue TTM
$7.3B
Net Income TTM
$315M
Net Margin
4.3%
ERJ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
27%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-378.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.47
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q2 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.21
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.02/$0.47
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.61
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.94/$0.47 | +100.0% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.40/$0.21 | +90.5% | $1.1B/$1.7B | -33.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.02/$0.47 | -104.3% | $1.8B/$1.9B | -5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.64/$0.61 | +4.3% | $2.0B/$2.6B | -22.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$8.4B
+15.8% YoY
FY2
$9.7B
+14.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.37
+154.2% YoY
FY2
$5.69
+30.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$703M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ERJ beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ERJ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Services
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
65.9%
+15.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Services is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
North America is the largest reported region at 65.9%, up 15.2% YoY.
ERJ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $120 — implies +83.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
83.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ERJ
34.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+35% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
ERJ
34.1x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+32% premium
vs ERJ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.1x
vs
5Y Average
20.0x
+70% premium
Forward PE
4.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-77%
Industrials
20.8x
-79%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+35%
Industrials
25.9x
+32%
5Y Avg
20.0x
+70%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Industrials
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-6%
Industrials
13.9x
+3%
5Y Avg
16.3x
-12%
Price/FCF
29.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+39%
Industrials
20.6x
+44%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+128%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-40%
Industrials
1.6x
+18%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+189%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.24%
—
5Y Avg
0.40%
—
| Metric | ERJ | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg ERJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 4.4x | 19.1x-77% | 20.8x-79% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.1x | 25.2x+35% | 25.9x+32% | 20.0x+70% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.3x | 13.9x | 16.3x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 29.6x | 21.3x+39% | 20.6x+44% | 13.0x+128% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-40% | 1.6x+18% | 0.6x+189% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.40% |
ERJ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolERJ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ERJ generates $703M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — 11.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+19.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.72
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$703M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
184M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageERJ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Embraer is currently facing significant challenges with component shortages, particularly with engine deliveries from suppliers like Pratt & Whitney and General Electric. These disruptions can lead to delays in aircraft delivery, impacting revenue and customer satisfaction.
High Risk
Financial Distress
Embraer's Altman Z-Score of 1.69 places it in the distress zone, indicating a heightened risk of bankruptcy within the next two years. This financial instability could severely affect investor confidence and the company's ability to secure financing.
High Risk
Tariffs
Proposed U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products pose a significant risk, potentially increasing aircraft costs by approximately $2 million each. This could lead to order cancellations and negatively impact Embraer's market position.
Medium
Production Execution
The challenge of converting a large order backlog into cash is a core risk for Embraer, with execution and external pressures being key challenges. Failure to effectively manage this backlog could result in lost revenue opportunities.
Medium
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates can significantly affect Embraer's liquidity risk, especially given the capital-intensive nature of the aerospace industry. Increased rates may lead to higher borrowing costs and reduced investment capacity.
Medium
Geopolitical Tensions
Diplomatic tensions could lead to a reversal of tariff exceptions, impacting Embraer's competitiveness in the U.S. market. Such geopolitical risks can create uncertainty and affect strategic planning.
Lower
Economic Downturns
The cyclical nature of the aerospace industry makes Embraer susceptible to economic fluctuations. A downturn could reduce demand for new aircraft, impacting sales and profitability.
Lower
Competitive Intensity
Increased competition from major players like Boeing and Airbus could lead to price reductions, impacting Embraer's margins. The competitive landscape requires constant innovation and cost management to maintain market share.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ERJ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Backlog and Demand
Embraer has a significant backlog of orders, valued at approximately $31.3 billion as of November 2025, with a record Q1 order backlog of $32.1 billion. The company's commercial aviation orders have seen substantial growth, with a 50% increase to $15 billion.
Growth Prospects and Industry Position
Embraer is positioned to benefit from the global aerospace upcycle, with a young portfolio of well-engineered aircraft, including best-selling executive jets and the E2 series commercial planes. The C-390 Millennium military transport plane is also gaining traction with significant orders from top-tier militaries.
Financial Performance and Valuation
Embraer reported revenue of $7.60 billion and earnings of $354.57 million in the last 12 months. In 2025, revenue increased by 18.23% to $41.88 billion, with earnings rising by 1.78% to $1.95 billion.
Benefiting from Competitor Weaknesses
With Boeing facing manufacturing and brand struggles, Embraer is well-positioned to capture market share as many US carriers seek more options. The long backlogs of Airbus and Boeing create additional opportunities for Embraer.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ERJ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$65.43
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$43.80
+49.4% from the low
52-Week High
$67.44
-3.0% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
0.0%
1 Year
+40.8%
3Y CAGR
+71.4%
5Y CAGR
+40.4%
10Y CAGR
+11.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ERJ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
4.4x
vs 18.4x median
-76% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.8%
vs +5.1% median
+210% above peer median
Net Margin
4.3%
vs 6.1% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERJ ERJ Embraer S.A. | $12.0B | 4.4x | +15.8% | 4.3% | Buy | -38.8% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $181.3B | 4955.4x | +14.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
TDG TDG TransDigm Group Incorporated | $69.7B | 31.8x | +12.6% | 21.6% | Buy | +31.1% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $12.6B | 18.4x | +4.9% | 4.7% | Hold | +31.4% |
TXT TXT Textron Inc. | $16.2B | 14.4x | +5.0% | 6.1% | Hold | +11.5% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $118.5B | 17.2x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +23.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ERJ Dividend and Capital Return
ERJ does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.29
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
184M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | $0.15 | -61.4% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2017 | $0.39 | +242.9% | 1.1% | 5.0% |
| 2016 | $0.11 | -49.0% | 1.7% | 4.5% |
| 2015 | $0.22 | -60.6% | 0.0% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsERJ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Embraer S.A. (ERJ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Embraer S.A. (ERJ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $40, implying -38.8% from the current price of $65.
02What is the ERJ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ERJ is $40 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $67 (+2.4% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (-80.1%). The base case model target is $194.
03Is Embraer S.A. (ERJ) stock overvalued in 2026?
ERJ trades at 4.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Embraer S.A. (ERJ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ERJ in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Disruptions — Embraer is currently facing significant challenges with component shortages, particularly with engine deliveries from suppliers like Pratt & Whitney and General Electric. (2) Financial Distress — Embraer's Altman Z-Score of 1. (3) Tariffs — Proposed U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Embraer S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ERJ will report consensus revenue of $8.4B (+15.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.37 (+154.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.7B in revenue.
06When does Embraer S.A. (ERJ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ERJ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Embraer S.A. generate?
Embraer S.A. (ERJ) generated $703M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. ERJ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).